Thursday, January 24, 2008

Seahawks get the #1 pick in the draft?

An article on ESPN has me wondering what it would take for the Hawks to get the #1 pick in the draft and who we'd take if we got it.

I'm of the belief that you have very few opportunities to be in championship window, and you should do everything in your power to get there. I'm not sure what the price tag will be, but I'd certainly give up our #1 this year and next, plus some additional draft picks.

If we got that pick, the choice would have to be between the most dominant defensive tackle (at least in terms of buzz) in the last 5 drafts, Glenn Dorsey, and a franchise running back in Darren McFadden.

The question becomes, would either of those guys get us far enough to win the big one? Or, at least, who gets us closest? Perhaps surprising to some, I would lean toward Dorsey. Dominant defensive tackles are far less common than strong starting running backs. What happens on the off-chance that Marcus Tubbs is healthy all next year? We could have the most dominant defensive line in football. That could catapult us into the top 5 in defense in the NFL.

Even with a great running back, I'm not convinced we make a big difference in the running game without things falling into place on the offensive line. I also think you could get a future starting back in the third or fourth round--like Ray Rice--in this draft because it's so deep.

What would you give up, and who would you take?

2 comments :

cwu91 said...

Well, they did something similar to this in 1990. They traded the 8th, 10th, 64th, and 101st picks for the 3rd overall and selected Cortez Kennedy. They also received the Patriots 29th (2nd round) as part of the package. That deal occurred prior to free agency. Kennedy missed the entire training camp and produced the following stat line....

Games-16
Tackles-48, Solo 37, Ast 11
Sacks-1

A quick look at Mebane
Games-16
Tackles-29, Solo 23, Ast 11
Sacks-2

I didn't see a stat for snaps played, which would be relevant here with the rotation scheme that Marshall uses.

In 1999, the Saints traded their entire draft, plus a 1st and 3rd the following year for the 5th overall pick. They used that on Ricky Williams, who was traded three years later.

The move from 22 to 1 would be cost prohibitive in todays era of free agency. You would probably need multiple teams to complete the deal, and it would have to be completed prior to the draft. Teams need those draft picks, because it provides relief from the cap.

Finally, very few top picks are impact players as a rookie. Its normally years 2-4 when you start to see returns. Look at Mario Williams, Eli Manning, etc. Kennedy was NFL defensive player of the year in his 3rd year. An immediate need for a team with a short window would probably be addressed through FA, since only the cap is impacted. When that window is exhausted, then teams purge and reload. This is what happened to the Titans and 49ers in 2003-2004.

Not to say that Dorsey wouldn't be an exception, but the risk to find out is probably not worth it.

Anonymous said...

I don't think the Hawks should trade up in draft.