Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Chances of Winning a Super Bowl With Kevin Kolb...0%??

Kevin Kolb is a constant source of discussion among any NFL fan base looking for their next franchise QB. He was a superb college player, has been groomed by one of the best in the biz in Andy Reid, and has flashed some great talent in his brief pro playing career. Many fans would be thrilled to hear their team traded a 1st and 3rd round pick to acquire Kolb in the hopes that he would lead them to a future championship. It is possible that could happen, but it's far more likely any team that acquires Kolb via trade will never win a Super Bowl with him at the helm.

Take a look at the list of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in NFL history:

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs,
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rodgers (MVP), 3 TDs

There are lots of familiar names up there. Guys that have given credence to the belief that a truly elite quarterback can give a team its best shot to win the big game. There are also the examples sprinkled in of guys like Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler, etc. that give hope to teams that dominate in other areas of the roster. Look a little closer. Try to find a QB on that list that was acquired via trade. Technically, Eli Manning and Brett Favre were traded, but they played their rookie seasons on the teams they won the Super Bowl with. Try to find a player acquired by trade AFTER their rookie season. Go on...look. Steve Young is the only guy, and he was traded the year after his rookie campaign.

Only one QB in the history of the NFL has won a Super Bowl after being traded after their rookie season. Shocking, right?

Look at the list again, and try to just find quarterbacks who were acquired via free agency. There are six such players by my count. They include:

  • Drew Brees
  • Brad Johnson
  • Trent Dilfer
  • Kurt Warner
  • Doug Williams
  • Jim Plunkett
It's worth noting that four of those six happened in the last 11 seasons, but that's still a pretty dismal track record. Assuming these numbers are correct, a whopping 85% of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks played their rookie seasons on the team they won a Super Bowl with. 

Other quarterbacks that have been discussed that would require the dreaded trade include Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton, and Matt Flynn. Of course, both Charlie Whitehurst and Matt Hasselbeck were both acquired via trade as well.

It is certainly possible that Kevin Kolb will be the first quarterback in the history of the NFL who wins a Super Bowl for a team that trades for him after a couple of seasons. Would you give up a 1st and 3rd round pick plus a $60M contract to bet on that? It would appear the best thing for Kevin Kolb, and the teams interested in trading for him, would be for the Eagles to sign him to a long-term deal. History tends to repeat itself far more often than it gets made.