Friday, March 9, 2012

Six Degrees Of Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning will reportedly sign with a football team sometime in the next week, and it probably won't be the Seahawks. No matter where he signs, there will be a ripple effect that could impact the Seahawks quarterback plans.

For reference, here is this year's NFL draft order:
1 Indianapolis Colts (want a QB)
2 St. Louis Rams (want to trade down)
3 Minnesota Vikings
4 Cleveland Browns (want a QB)
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6 Washington Redskins (want a QB)
7 Jacksonville Jaguars
8 Miami Dolphins (want a QB)
9 Carolina Panthers
10 Buffalo Bills
11 Kansas City Chiefs
12 Seattle Seahawks (want a QB)

There are at least four, and possibly five, quarterbacks that the teams in that Top 12 would consider. You know:
- Andrew Luck
- Robert Griffin III
- Matt Flynn
- Peyton Manning

Ryan Tannehill is the wildcard, who some are projecting as high as #6 to the Redskins. That could make things quite interesting for Seattle.

SCENARIO #1: Manning Signs With Denver. Flynn Signs With Miami. Washington decides it like Tannehill at #6 instead of trading up for RG3.
The Dolphins are already the obvious choice for Flynn for the same reasons it is mentioned as a good choice for Manning. They have a good running game, good weapons, a good receiver, and Flynn also gets to play with his old offensive coordinator. A number of sites have mentioned the Redskins being interested in Tannehill, especially because he fits the mold of what Mike Shanahan wants in his quarterbacks. This scenario would leave the Browns as the only other bidder for RG3. It would drastically reduce the value of that #2 choice, possibly to the point that St. Louis would rather pick someone like Ryan Kalil or Justin Blackmon than trade down. The Vikings could be the beneficiary as the Seahawks could be eager trade partners. How much would the Browns surrender to move up one spot? The Seahawks very likely could overwhelm the Vikings if they wanted to. The Vikings would have all the more reason to move down if Kalil gets taken at #2.

SCENARIO #2: Manning Signs With Denver. Flynn Signs With Cleveland. 
Not the likeliest of scenarios, but worth a look. This would mean the market for the Rams pick would drop considerably. Every team knows the Rams won't pick a QB, and would just need to target the Vikings, Browns or Bucs pick to have a shot at RG3. The Redskins would be the likely winner, leaving Miami with a choice of taking Tannehill. They are looking for something more, so they probably would stick with Matt Moore in that scenario and the Seahawks could have a chance at Tannehill at #12.

SCENARIO #3: Manning Signs With Washington. Flynn Signs With Cleveland.
Also, not likely, but this would guarantee the Seahawks could end up with either RG3 or Tannehill. The Rams would probably trade with the Dolphins to keep RG3 out of the division, but if not, very little would separate the Dolphins pick at #8 from the Seahawks pick at #12 in terms of starting compensation to move up.

SCENARIO #4: Manning Signs With Houston.
Matt Schaub becomes available, and a great option for the Seahawks.

SCENARIO #5: Manning Signs With Miami. 
This would hurt the market for Flynn, and increase the chances he would come to Seattle on their terms (e.g., open competition, incentive-laden deal). The Redskins are a possibility, but would probably be happier to stay put and get a young quarterback in the draft.

SCENARIO #6: Manning Signs With Arizona. Flynn to Miami. Kevin Kolb Released, Signs With   Washington or Cleveland. 
Browns GM Tom Heckert is from Philly, and knows Kolb. Don't ever underestimate the value GMs place on being able to use their draft choices on the best player available instead of being forced to fill a need. The Browns also have shown the desire to move back and accumulate picks. This would allow them to do that. Kolb is not as likely in Washington, but could be a fit in Miami, which would leave Flynn searching for a home. Again, this scenario would whittle the RG3 competition to two teams, Seattle and either Washington or Cleveland.

SCENARIO #7: Manning Signs With Dallas.
Tony Romo becomes available, and a great option for the Seahawks. Pretty unlikely.

It should be clear from all these that Manning's free agency stands to help Seattle no matter what. We just don't know how yet.

5 comments :

eburghawkfan said...

I like any senario where the rams get their bluff called and end up having to pick someone in the no 2 spot. That along with Flynn and Manning being signed by anyone picking before us TOTALLY opens the flood gates of possibilities.

I am looking forward to seeing this all play out. Not even worth trying to predict how it will wind up. Too many possibilities.

eburghawkfan said...

Schaub or Flynn, either would be a good pick up for us (depending on price). But what if Huston did sign Manning and Flynn and Schaub went to Miami and Washington. I don't really know if Holmgren has given up on McCoy. Holmgren does not panic. What if they trade down? Seattle might see RG3 fall to them? :-p

Kyle said...

And this doesn't even address the possibility of a Manning to Kansas City, which has fewer changes at the top of the draft but might result in the Seahawks not getting scooped at #11.

eburghawkfan said...

OR... How bout the redskins trade up to the 2nd spot. How unlikely would that be... oh wait... WOW.

Now where do Flynn and Manning end up? You just can't predict this stuff. :)

Zack Lamal said...

love the blog, here are my scenarios http://lamallounge.blogspot.com/2012/03/manning-taking-talents-to-south-beach.html

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