Tuesday, November 13, 2012

REVISED: Grading John Schneider's Draft Picks

Back in August, I took a stab at grading all of Pete Carroll and John Schneider's draft picks through their first three off-seasons. I took a moment to update my grades based on player performances through ten games of this season. Injuries have knocked some player's down on performance. Stellar play has brought some people up. Keep in mind, I am trying to grade the draft choice, not necessarily the player. In other words, picking Andrew Luck with the first overall pick would not score at the top of this list because it required no special ability to evaluate talent. Drafting Russell Wilson in the 3rd round? That deserves some recognition. That does not mean Wilson is a better player than Luck. Hopefully, that makes sense. I decided to have a little fun and come up with a simple grading system to see where the choices all stack up.

I listed all of the Seahawks draft choices from the last three years and included key undrafted free agents as well. Each selection was scored based on three categories:

VALUE: Did the Seahawks get the player later than their talent indicates they should have been selected?

UPSIDE: How good can this player be? Roughly, 10 is All-Pro, 8-9 is Pro Bowl, 7 Starter

PERFORMANCE: How have they performed on the field? This takes into account injuries and production. This factor is weighted 1.5X the others, as performance is what matters most.

There is obviously more projection involved in players drafted this year that have not played a full regular season, but this is just for fun, so relax!

Note: Try clicking here if you are having trouble viewing the table below


This stacked up reasonably well. Greg Scruggs feels a little high, but he has performed well in limited action. I also greatly value interior pass rushers, who are among the hardest talents to find, so getting one in the 7th round gets props. James Carpenter feels a little low, but a starting guard in the first round is just not a great value pick. If he becomes a perennial Pro Bowl player, that would make the value aspect go up, as those are harder to find. Some may question the Sweezy spot, but he is a likely starter in the future, and was a fantastic value pick. I'm still a huge believer in Doug Baldwin, but his injuries have reduced his overall performance score.

Richard Sherman is a worthy top choice. Kam Chancellor has been getting a little less respect lately in local media, where a number of folks have put him as the fourth-best player in that secondary. I see it differently. Kam is Adrian Wilson reincarnate. His production has not been as high this season, so I knocked him down a bit, but his upside and value are outstanding as a draft choice. Russell Wilson zooms up the charts as his performance has outpaced expectations.

As far as best overall draft goes, the 2012 draft totals 5,101 points, or 463 points per player. The 2010 draft totals 3,791 points, or 421 points per player. The 2011 draft class totals 3,775 points, or 378 points per player.

How would you rate these draft choices? Which do you think was the best? Discuss!

1 comment :

nwdave12 said...

Curious about the value of 5 for Wagner. My first reaction was that it was a bit surprisingly low. Would be interested to know what your thoughts around that were.

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