There has been some confusion about the Seahawks situation, so let’s clear that up first:
2014 Unrestricted Free Agents
Kam Chancellor
Michael Robinson
Anthony McCoy
Golden Tate
Paul McQuistan
Breno Giacomini
Walter Thurmond III
Michael Bennett
2014 Restricted Free Agents
Doug Baldwin
Brandon Browner
Jeron Johnson
2015 Unrestricted Free Agents
James Carpenter
John Moffitt
Malcolm Smith
Chris Clemons
K.J. Wright
Richard Sherman
Earl Thomas
Cliff Avril
Byron Maxwell
Doug Baldwin*
Brandon Browner*
Jeron Johnson*
2016 Unrestricted Free Agents (Contracts can be renegotiated in 2015)
Russell Okung
Russell Wilson
Bobby Wagner
Bruce Irvin
*Assumes they are retained as RFAs in 2014
The new collective bargaining agreement precludes teams from negotiating new deals with rookies until three years has passed. There are people conflating the fact that Russell Wilson can have his deal renegotiated in 2015 with Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman actually being free agents that year. That is a significant difference. People also continue to mistakenly believe Browner is a free agent after this year. He is not. He is a restricted free agent, along with Baldwin, which makes it highly likely they will remain in Seattle for the 2014 season. Of course, they just adds them to list of 2015 UFAs, so it only buys the Seahawks one more season for each player.
Now, take a look at the 49ers situation:
2014 Unrestricted Free Agents
Anquan Boldin
Tramaine Brock
Tarell Brown
Perrish Cox
Anthony Dixon
Demarcus Dobbs
Jonathan Goodwin
Parys Haralson
Mario Manningham
Justin Smith
Will Tukuafu
Donte Whitner
Kyle Williams
2015 Unrestricted Free Agents
C.J. Spillman
Aldon Smith
Bruce Miller
Colin Kaepernick
Kendall Hunter
Frank Gore
Anthony Davis
Chris Culliver
Michael Crabtree
Mike Iupati
The Seahawks will certainly have some tough choices, but the path seems pretty clear. There will be some debate among fans regarding Chancellor, but he will be extended. As will Thomas, Sherman, Wilson and Okung. Everyone else will be a value-based decision based on their market value compared to their valuation for the Seahawks. Giacomini and Wright are the only two players in that category that do not have a legitimate alternative already on the roster.
The 49ers situation appears more precarious. It would appear they would need to extend Kaepernick by next off-season in order to avoid him hitting the open market after the 2014 season ends. That will most likely be an easy decision, if not a cheap one. Tougher will be players like Justin Smith, who will be 34 after this season and Whitner, who has become an integral part of that secondary. San Francisco would seemingly want to keep both, but that gets expensive when also needing to grab another receiver, and find a replacement for their talented, but aging center in Goodwin. He will also be a free agent after this season, and will be 35. Knowing that Davis and Iupati will be coming up for new contracts the following season makes retaining Goodwin unlikely.
The timing of Justin Smith’s free agency is about as bad as it gets for the 49ers. He will be young enough to still be effective and costly, but old enough that he could break down and decline almost immediately after inking the deal.
Frank Gore is possibly playing his final season with the team, and definitely will not be back if he stays around long enough to be a free agent in 2015. Hunter may be the future at running back, although it is not yet clear he can survive as a featured back at his size. San Francisco needs to find out soon because they will have to decide if it is worth extending him, or face losing him and Gore. And don’t forget Aldon Smith and Crabtree. Both players are due to hit the market in 2015.
The 49ers next two seasons make the Seahawks situation look like a cake walk. Schneider very well may address the biggest question by extending Thomas this off-season. Doing so would ensure Sherman would stick around as the team could apply the franchise tag. There is really no rush to do it this year, but the sooner they finalize the terms, the better they can plan their spend across their other upcoming free agents.
Both teams will benefit from the salary cap raising in 2015, but the idea is not race into a fully burdened cap simply because it rises. Three-fifths of the vaunted 49ers offensive line will be up for new contracts in the next two seasons. Both of the Smiths on the defensive side will be looking for new deals, as will All-Pro safety Whitner and cornerstone Kaepernick. Their only legitimate, young receiving threat in Crabtree and their best young running back in Hunter also hit the market. That does not even start getting into the challenges at cornerback.
San Francisco will either need to dramatically reduce the quality of their depth by signing a number of these key players to expensive contracts, or count on effective drafting to allow them to move on from players that look like linchpins to their current success. If this off-season is any indication, the front office looks to be comfortable letting young Pro Bowl talent walk out the door, and depend on short-term veteran contracts to fill the void or a few draft choices to quickly rise into starting roles. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have relatively few difficult decisions to make in the next year, and have proven they can find All-Pro caliber players in every draft.
None of this guarantees one team will outperform the other, but the contractual headwinds facing the 49ers could certainly swing the balance of power far faster toward Seattle than many realize.