Showing posts with label power rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label power rankings. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Hawk Blogger Power Rankings: Week 7

THIS WEEK
It is Denver, Green Bay, and everyone else in this weeks rankings. Interesting to note that Seattle has beat both of them. The Seahawks drop a couple more spots and fall out of the top ten for the first time in a couple of years. Minnesota, Atlanta, and Cincinnati are the only teams to have dropped more team strength in the last three weeks than Seattle.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Hawk Blogger 2014 Power Rankings: Week 6

THIS WEEK
Seattle takes a predictable fall this week all the way down to ninth, losing more team strength than any other team. Arizona, despite being tops in the division, is falling in the rankings down to 14th. The Cardinals actually have a negative passer rating differential (88.1 vs. 91.2), and their score differential is very slight (23.2 to 21.2). They are finding ways to win.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Hawk Blogger 2014 Power Rankings: Week 5

THIS WEEK
It was a fall from grace for the Bengals who were way out in front the previous two weeks, but got blown out in New England this week. Green Bay takes over the top spot with their second consecutive blowout win. Denver also climbs over Seattle, who falls a spot despite raising their total team strength number.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Hawk Blogger 2014 Power Rankings: Week 4

THIS WEEK
Into week four and the Bengals are lapping the field so far. They have been helped by 21st-ranked strength of schedule (SOS), but even taking down their team strength with that factored in is not enough to make them anything but dominant thus far.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

NEW! Hawk Blogger Power Rankings, Now With Strength of Schedule!

Many of you have asked me to include a strength of schedule component (SOS) into my power rankings. For years, there was not a quick way for me to do that, so I punted. The rankings were still valuable, but I always have looked for a chance to incorporate what should be the final piece of the rankings puzzle. Thanks to TeamRankings.com, I finally have what I need.

Hawk Blogger 2014 Power Rankings: Week 3

THIS WEEK
Three weeks in, and the rankings continue to have some unfamiliar names near the top. The AFC holds the top two spots, with the Bengals lapping the field right now. New England being #2 was so surprising that I had to double-check my numbers. They barely beat the Raiders and Tom Brady is not playing great football.

It turns out they are holding opponents to a 57.4 passer rating so far, which is just behind the Bengals (56.9). That gives the Pats a large passer rating differential despite Brady having low numbers by his standards. They won't be able to play David Carr every week, though, so their spot feels tenuous.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Hawk Blogger 2014 Power Rankings: Week 2

THIS WEEK
The rise of the AFC? Cincinnati, Denver and Houston (yes, Houston), occupy the top three spots in this weeks rankings. Nobody can accuse me of being biased. Seattle took a big fall, but Detroit, Tennessee, San Francisco, Minnesota, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and the Jets fell further. The Bears at #5 does not seem like it will last, and Washington at #7 should grab every Seahawks fans attention as many were hoping for an easier game in a couple of weeks.

For those wondering how San Diego could be so far down in the rankings after beating a strong Seattle team, it comes down to their deplorable defense that is allowing a 112.7 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks and 5.6 yards per carry. Had the Seattle offense seen the field a typical amount of time, they might have hung 40 points on that team.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Hawk Blogger 2014 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1

THIS WEEK
Week one power rankings are in the books. As always, these rankings become far more predictive of team strength after 3-4 weeks. That said, seven of the top ten teams in week one rankings last year made the playoffs. The table below shows each teams strength rating and how it compares to where they ended in Week 17 last year.

One of the more striking results is the Seahawks finishing within 0.1 of where they were last year. Detroit in the top spot looks very odd. Then again, they were 5th in the rankings this time last year, and were one of the three top ten teams that did not make the playoffs. Denver was the top team after one week last year.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Best Teams Heading Into Playoffs

A reader, Todd Huotari, had a good question about my power rankings. He saw the 1-week difference in team strength and the 3-week difference, but both of those are cumulative numbers. Knowing what Russell Wilson's passer rating was three weeks ago and what it is today can show a trend, but figuring out his passer rating just in the last three weeks tucks away past performance and allows you to see just how he is playing lately. That is what Huotari wanted to know, and he took the time to figure out using the my power rankings formula that I share each week. The results are interesting, and give a different perspective on which teams have been hottest heading into the playoffs.








As you can see, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Cincinnati are all hot in the AFC. Only Philadelphia stands out in the NFC. Surprisingly, with all the hand-wringing about Seattle's slower finish, they have been the second-strongest team in the NFC the last three weeks by this ranking system. Time will tell if the hotter teams are the winning teams this weekend.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Final 2013 Hawk Blogger Power Rankings

THIS WEEK
For the second straight season, the Seahawks finish with the top spot in the power rankings. Denver finishes second for back-to-back seasons as well. And San Francisco finishes fourth again. Remarkable consistency for a parity-drive league. You can check out the final rankings from 2012 here.

The formula proved pretty accurate at predicting playoff teams yet again. By week three, 7 of 10 teams in the top ten made the playoffs, and 9 of the top 13. By week four, 8 of the top 10 teams were playoff qualifiers, and 10 of the 12 playoff teams were among the top 15. This is why I trust the numbers more than subjective expert picks.

The lowest ranked team in week four to make the playoffs was the then-23rd-ranked Eagles. Just like the Packers now, it is hard for the numbers to reflect drastic personnel changes like Aaron Rodgers returning does not erase all the weeks of him being absent, even if it makes the team that much better right now. Same for Nick Foles being inserted as a full-time starter much later in the season.

San Francisco boasts a far higher ranking than the Packers, but the difference has to be much less with Rodgers back in. Green Bay reached a Team Strength as high as 20.7 before Rodgers was injured, not far off the 49ers 24.2 right now.

On to the playoffs...

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)




This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.




RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 16

THIS WEEK
Take a look at the NFC. Four of the top five teams reside in the NFC. The Eagles blowout win helped them climb into the top five, and the 49ers remaining relatively steady while the Saints faltered again, allowed San Francisco to gain the #3 spot.

Cardinals fans will be angry to see their team lost team strength despite a rousing win in Seattle. That is the second time in three weeks a team has beat the Seahawks, but done so in a fashion that cost them strength in the rankings. Passer rating differential plays a large role here, and as bad as Russell Wilson's numbers were, there were not as bad as Carson Palmer's. Yards per carry was also in Seattle's favor. Arizona fans can be happy they get a win.

Seattle slides back, but not a ton because their defense has played so well.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 15

THIS WEEK
The Seahawks extend to their largest margin between themselves and everyone else after a 23-0 whitewash. The 15.8 point difference means that the difference between Seattle and Denver is roughly equivalent to the difference between New Orleans and Pittsburgh. None of this guarantees victory, but Seattle's team efficiency is far and away the best in the NFL, and efficiency correlates strongly to win probability.

The NFC West has sent the Saints into a tailspin, as they have lost more team strength than any other group after facing Seattle and St. Louis. The teams gaining strength that figure into the playoff picture are Kansas City, Chicago, Indianapolis, and possibly Miami.

San Francisco continues to improve, but it would be a stretch to say they are hot.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Power Rankings Trend Visualization

Curious how teams have progressed or regressed through the year in the Hawk Blogger Power Rankings? Reader Todd Huotari took the time to load the rankings of each team into a tool that will let you play with each team, and see their path. Note that the bars behind the lines represent standard deviations. Seattle is the only team that is currently three standard deviations above the mean.

It was also interesting to see how the Broncos have fallen steadily through the year. Take a look!


Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 14

THIS WEEK
Seattle drops some team strength this week, but maintains the top spot for the fourth straight week. New Orleans added a bit of dignity back after their steep drop versus Seattle, and San Francisco managed to lose nearly as much strength as Seattle in their grudge match, largely due to Seattle winning the passer rating differential.

Carolina, the "hottest team in the NFL" according to so many analysts for weeks, has actually been sliding for four weeks. No team in the NFL has shed more strength in these rankings the last three weeks than the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have gained an astounding 20+ points during the same period, nearly pulling out of last place.

Arizona and Tampa are making nice strides, with the Cardinals almost cracking the top ten, after spending the early part of the season in the lower third of the rankings.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Hawk Blogger Power Rankings: Week 13

THIS WEEK
Quite possibly the earliest publishing of an NFL Power Rankings in league history (12:46 AM PT) starts with the Seahawks increasing the gap between them and the mere mortals. Even Denver is starting to look like a significant step behind the Seattle juggernaut.

The Saints take a major tumble, but are still ahead of the 49ers. The Panthers, as hot as people want them to be, have actually taken a step backwards the past three weeks in overall efficiency.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 12

THIS WEEK
Denver continues their slide, losing 11.3 points over the last three weeks. The 49ers gain almost as must as the Broncos lost this week, and climb ahead of the Panthers into the top four. Seahawks fans would like to believe the 49ers were on the brink of playoff elimination, but the numbers imply this still may be the team to beat in the NFC when the playoffs roll around.

The Cardinals are streaking, up 16.5 over the past three weeks. The only team moving farther and faster is the Tampa Bay Bucs. And keep an eye on the Steelers. Every team the Seahawks play over the next five weeks is playing better ball than they were a few weeks ago. There will be no gimmies.

UPDATE:  I have added a 3-Week difference in team strength to help identify teams that are climbing or sliding over a larger chunk of time. This should help find teams that may be playing above or below their current ranking.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 11

THIS WEEK
For the first time since Week 3, someone other than Denver owns the top spot in the rankings. Seattle rises to #1 on the strength of a solid margin of victory and league-best passer rating differential. The Broncos have been sliding slightly the past few weeks, while the Seahawks have been gaining ground. The Saints spot at #3 sets up a titanic battle once Seattle returns from the bye. Only three teams have strength ratings of 40 or more, and two of them will face-off in Seattle on Monday Night Football.

Elsewhere, the Cardinals cross over into the land of positive rankings with their stretch of strong play. The Steelers join them. Meanwhile, Green Bay and Indianapolis sink near, or below, the zero barrier.

The Seahawks do not have any easy games left on the schedule, or at least as easy as they might have been a few weeks back. The Giants, Rams and Cardinals are all playing decent football.

UPDATE: New This Week!! I have added a 3-Week difference in team strength to help identify teams that are climbing or sliding over a larger chunk of time. This should help find teams that may be playing above or below their current ranking.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 10

THIS WEEK
It gets a little more crowded at the top this week as Seattle and New Orleans step forward and the Broncos continue their slow slide back. The drop-off after the top three teams is steep. The difference between the Saints and the Panthers is equivalent to the difference between the Panthers and the Bears or Dolphins. A few top teams will clash this week with the #1 Broncos facing the #5 Chiefs and the #3 Saints hosting the #6 49ers.

The most shocking team in the top 10 has to be the Eagles at #7. They do it on the strength of a solid passer rating differential (99.4 - 83.6) and a strong rushing efficiency advantage (5.1 - 4.0). They lead the NFL in rushing, and now have a quarterback playing efficiently. The rankings like that.

The Packers and the Cowboys are dropping like lead balloons, and the once-proud Colts have slid all the way to #16 after being a top ten team early in the season.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 9

THIS WEEK
Seven of the top ten teams shed team strength this week, and two of the ten did not even play. Only Kansas City made any gain, and a modest one at that. The Eagles make a massive jump for this late in the year. We shall see if that is sustainable.

Most fans would not know it, but there is a battle of the titans brewing in San Francisco this Sunday when the Panthers roll into town. The 49ers could find themselves climbing into the top five, or the Panthers could justify their spot ahead of them.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



Bar chart was no good, so back to this scatter. This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Hawk Blogger 2013 Power Rankings: Week 8

THIS WEEK
Lots of action this week across the NFL hierarchy. Seattle and Denver manage to improve their team strength despite sub-par performances. The Saints are marching. The Panther keep moving up, and the Bengals jump up an amazing 13.7 points after their blowout victory.

Arizona improved nearly the same amount, showing the Seahawks win their last week may have been more impressive than many would give them credit for.

It is fair to wonder how Seattle gained points during one of their worst games of the year. They did it by increasing their passer rating differential. Despite the terrible offensive performance, Russell Wilson did end with a 100+ rating and Kellen Clemens was held under 40.0. That has been a better indicator of team strength historically than sack differential or total yardage differential, and it's not close. Very odd game, and odd result here.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link.(Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)



Trying a bar chart of the rankings to see if that is easier to read. This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.



RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)


The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)


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