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Game week Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · 5:20 PM PT · Lumen Field
HB modelSEA by 0.9

Rating gap of 1.1 points, plus about 2 for Seattle at home.

Rooting Guide

Who to root for this week

From 10,000 simulated seasons. Super Bowl odds also play the NFC playoffs, rated by our power rankings and the betting market. Always against the NFC West. Times Pacific.

75%Seattle's playoff oddsWest 6% · 1 seed 2% · Super Bowl 12%
2 of 4 went our way
Sun · FinalOur way
+3.2% playoff odds
+0.9% Super Bowl odds
NFC West · Rams 2-3
Sun · FinalNot our way
+3.1% playoff odds
+0.6% Super Bowl odds
NFC · Packers 3-2
Sun · FinalNot our way
+2.0% playoff odds
+0.0% Super Bowl odds
NFC · Bears 3-2
Sun · FinalOur way
+0.6% playoff odds
+0.1% Super Bowl odds
NFC · Giants 3-1-1
5:15 PM · ESPNSF −7.5
−0.3% playoff odds
+0.8% Super Bowl odds
Math says 49ers, +0.3%
NFC West · 49ers 5-0
Sun · Final
Seattle's next opponent

The Show

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1:23:24
Latest episode · Mon, Oct 19 · 10.6K views

NFC Chaos: What Happens Next?

We welcome in Mike Sando of The Athletic for a postponed weekly visit after a wild weekend of football. The Rams lost again. What happens to that team? The Seahawks lost again.…

Listen to this episodeDaily Seahawks Podcast
Ad-free on Patreon Earlier this week
  • Solving Abe & Zabel: A Plan To Cut Pressure1:02
  • SEAHAWKS SATURDAY: Time for Cope or Hope?0:59
  • Macdonald Sticking With Sam1:00
Brought to you by Local team. Local coverage.go.pemco.com/hawkblogger

Insight of the Day

HB Daily →
TodayMon, Oct 19 · Seahawks

Both men are behind the league this year

Abraham Lucas and Grey Zabel are both allowing more pressure than the league average at their spots this year. Lucas allowed pressure at 0.68 times the league tackle rate in 2025. This year it's 1.26 times, and his Value Over Replacement, where 100 is replacement level, fell from 127.2, 30th of 96 regular tackles, to 97.2, 50th of 69, below replacement level. Zabel went from 0.90 times the league guard rate to 1.17. His VOR fell from 137.7, 18th of 96 guards, to 104.4, 45th of 75.

Abraham Lucas and Grey Zabel in pass protection
PlayerSeasonPressure rateVORVOR rank
Abraham Lucas20252.8%127.230 of 96
Abraham Lucas20267.2%97.250 of 69
Grey Zabel20253.4%137.718 of 96
Grey Zabel20265.9%104.445 of 75
Read today's issue
YesterdaySun, Oct 18 · Around the NFL

Sam Darnold has been throwing into tight windows. Does that lead to more interceptions?

Contested balls don't line up with interception-worthy throws either. That correlation is -0.09, essentially no link.

How closely each measure tracks interception rate, QB seasons with 200+ attempts
MeasureQB seasonsCorrelationRank correlationWeighted by attempts
Tight-window throws (NGS), 2016-20253460.190.180.20
Contested balls (FTN), 2022-20251430.120.050.11
Contested balls vs. interception-worthy throws (FTN), 2022-2025143−0.09−0.03−0.06
Read yesterday's issue
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Team Grid of the Day · TodayBuild your own grid →

Explosive plays, made and allowed

EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE · BETTER →EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE ALLOWED · BETTER →NFL medianArizona Cardinals: 4.5% (32nd), 10.9% (25th)Atlanta Falcons: 10.7% (9th), 7.4% (6th)Baltimore Ravens: 12.8% (4th), 8.1% (9th)Buffalo Bills: 16.0% (1st), 10.8% (24th)Carolina Panthers: 10.7% (8th), 7.0% (4th)Chicago Bears: 9.7% (12th), 11.0% (27th)Cincinnati Bengals: 8.4% (19th), 12.8% (32nd)Cleveland Browns: 7.2% (26th), 11.5% (30th)Dallas Cowboys: 6.4% (28th), 11.6% (31st)Denver Broncos: 5.9% (30th), 9.7% (20th)Detroit Lions: 10.6% (10th), 11.4% (28th)Green Bay Packers: 9.2% (14th), 5.9% (2nd)Houston Texans: 10.0% (11th), 9.0% (17th)Indianapolis Colts: 9.3% (13th), 9.0% (16th)Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.7% (7th), 7.9% (8th)Kansas City Chiefs: 12.9% (3rd), 7.3% (5th)Los Angeles Rams: 9.2% (16th), 8.2% (11th)Los Angeles Chargers: 7.8% (24th), 10.1% (22nd)Las Vegas Raiders: 8.3% (21st), 11.5% (29th)Miami Dolphins: 11.7% (5th), 9.7% (19th)Minnesota Vikings: 8.1% (22nd), 8.2% (10th)New England Patriots: 10.8% (6th), 8.5% (12th)New Orleans Saints: 7.0% (27th), 11.0% (26th)New York Giants: 7.5% (25th), 9.9% (21st)New York Jets: 9.2% (15th), 8.7% (14th)Philadelphia Eagles: 5.2% (31st), 8.7% (15th)Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.3% (20th), 10.4% (23rd)San Francisco 49ers: 13.4% (2nd), 4.1% (1st)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.0% (23rd), 7.4% (7th)Tennessee Titans: 6.3% (29th), 9.3% (18th)Washington Commanders: 9.1% (17th), 8.5% (13th)Seattle Seahawks: 9.1% (18th), 5.9% (3rd)Hit big, allow littleStingy, no splashBig plays both waysWrong side of big plays
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE · BETTER →EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE ALLOWED · BETTER →NFL medianArizona Cardinals: 4.5% (32nd), 10.9% (25th)Atlanta Falcons: 10.7% (9th), 7.4% (6th)Baltimore Ravens: 12.8% (4th), 8.1% (9th)Buffalo Bills: 16.0% (1st), 10.8% (24th)Carolina Panthers: 10.7% (8th), 7.0% (4th)Chicago Bears: 9.7% (12th), 11.0% (27th)Cincinnati Bengals: 8.4% (19th), 12.8% (32nd)Cleveland Browns: 7.2% (26th), 11.5% (30th)Dallas Cowboys: 6.4% (28th), 11.6% (31st)Denver Broncos: 5.9% (30th), 9.7% (20th)Detroit Lions: 10.6% (10th), 11.4% (28th)Green Bay Packers: 9.2% (14th), 5.9% (2nd)Houston Texans: 10.0% (11th), 9.0% (17th)Indianapolis Colts: 9.3% (13th), 9.0% (16th)Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.7% (7th), 7.9% (8th)Kansas City Chiefs: 12.9% (3rd), 7.3% (5th)Los Angeles Rams: 9.2% (16th), 8.2% (11th)Los Angeles Chargers: 7.8% (24th), 10.1% (22nd)Las Vegas Raiders: 8.3% (21st), 11.5% (29th)Miami Dolphins: 11.7% (5th), 9.7% (19th)Minnesota Vikings: 8.1% (22nd), 8.2% (10th)New England Patriots: 10.8% (6th), 8.5% (12th)New Orleans Saints: 7.0% (27th), 11.0% (26th)New York Giants: 7.5% (25th), 9.9% (21st)New York Jets: 9.2% (15th), 8.7% (14th)Philadelphia Eagles: 5.2% (31st), 8.7% (15th)Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.3% (20th), 10.4% (23rd)San Francisco 49ers: 13.4% (2nd), 4.1% (1st)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.0% (23rd), 7.4% (7th)Tennessee Titans: 6.3% (29th), 9.3% (18th)Washington Commanders: 9.1% (17th), 8.5% (13th)Seattle Seahawks: 9.1% (18th), 5.9% (3rd)Hit big, allow littleStingy, no splashBig plays both waysWrong side of big plays

Seattle: 18th in explosive play rate (9.1%), 3rd in explosive play rate allowed (5.9%).

Hit big, allow little · 1149ersChiefsPanthersRavensJaguarsFalconsPackersPatriots+3 more

Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →

This week
Team Evaluator · last 4 games

Seattle's trends

Offense · 24ththis season
−0.60−0.40−0.20−0.00+0.20−0.05Week 3: at Washington CommandersWk 3−0.09Week 4: vs. Los Angeles ChargersWk 4−0.43Week 5: vs. San Francisco 49ersWk 5−0.10Week 6: at Denver BroncosWk 6
Defense · 2ndlower is better
−0.20−0.100.00+0.10−0.08Week 3: at Washington CommandersWk 3−0.09Week 4: vs. Los Angeles ChargersWk 4−0.14Week 5: vs. San Francisco 49ersWk 5−0.14Week 6: at Denver BroncosWk 6

The dashed line is the NFL average that week. Green beat it, orange didn't.

Open the Team Evaluator →
Updated 8h ago

Power Rankings

Biggest climb: Patriots ▲4 to 5th

See all 32 →
Player Evaluator

Seahawks by VOR

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR170 VOR · 28th in NFL
Julian LoveS167 VOR · 33rd in NFL
Leonard WilliamsIDL163 VOR · 44th in NFL
Byron MurphyIDL158 VOR · 61st in NFL
All 849 regulars →
Seahawks Cap Outlook · 2026

Where the money goes

Nehemiah PritchettCB152 VOR on $1.17M
Rodney ThomasS115 VOR on $0.96M
George HolaniRB100 VOR on $1.07M
Jalen SundellOL96 VOR on $1.07M
Ty OkadaS97 VOR on $1.15M

Most value over replacement per $1M of 2026 cap.

Open →
XLatest from BrianFollow on X
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 6m

Davante Adams has 18 TDs in 20 regular season games with the Rams. His replacements have 8 TDs combined in their careers.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 19m

A look at how the Rams run defense has been impacted by when Kobie Turner and Poona Ford are on/off the field this season. Top-left quadrant is both on. Lower-left is Turner on, Ford off. Turner's a terrific player vs run and pass.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 50m

Wow. Now Kobie Turner out as well. Rams have some serious talent on the sidelines.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 1h

Poona Ford out for the season is a massive blow for a run defense already struggling.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 1h

Rams lose a key part of their offense. WR room was thin to begin with. Have to wonder about the decision to use that top pick on a QB.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 4h

The sands are shifting in the NFC. @SandoNFL had some great context about just how bad the Seahawks offense has been, how good the defense has been, and why he thinks they remain the team nobody wants to face.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 5h

NFC Chaos: What Happens Next?

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 6h

🏈 Join @BradyHenderson and I at Victory Hall this Saturday at 4PM for a live episode! Your ticket includes a SKIP THE LINE pass on game days for the whole month of November. Come to the show Saturday. Skip the line Sundays. Tickets:

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 6h

Monday schedule: 8:30AM - On with @BrockHuard & @TheMikeSalk 9:00AM - HB Mornings kicks off 9:30AM - @SandoNFL joins 3:45PM - Mike Macdonald presser

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