I’ll admit it. I wrote him off. After believing Smith was more than just a bridge quarterback, who was capable of regular Pro Bowl-level play, I reached my breaking point in the first half of this game against the Commanders. Smith was the worst combination of tentative and inaccurate. After his latest pass fell to the turf at least five yards from a wide open receiver in the middle of the field, I lost my faith. He seemed like a guy who would benefit from time on the bench. Then, he came out and played a beautiful second half of football that included two clutch go-ahead drives that won the game. I wrote him off. He ain’t write back. Again.
How bad was Smith in the first half? Bad enough that almost nobody could believe he set a career-high with 369 yards passing for the day. Bad enough that some fans still walked away feeling like he played a bad game despite having no turnovers and two passing touchdowns. Smith had 217 yards, both touchdowns, and a 143.1 passer rating in the second half while completing 75% of this throws. It was an elite half of football no matter how you slice it.
Something interesting may have happened along the way. Smith has not been alone in getting criticism this season. Shane Waldron has hung his quarterback and thin offensive line out to dry a number of times with play designs that had only intermediate-to-deep routes and no outlets for Smith to utilize when under quick pressure or the longer routes get covered up. There have also been precious few easy throws that rely more on yards being gained after the catch by the receiver than on the quarterback via air yards (air yards are how far the ball is thrown before being caught).
One of Smith’s strengths is he has an amazing arm with special accuracy in the intermediate-to-deep portion of the field. That has led both he and Waldron to put too many eggs in that basket. What happened against the Commanders was a re-imagining of how this offense can operate.
Seattle gained 258 yards after the catch (YAC) Sunday. That was the second-most in a game this season for any NFL team. You read that right. Eat your heart out Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and alike. Waldron and the Seahawks took a page out of their book, and found success.
Seahawks fans, of course, tried to turn this positive into a negative. People kept trying to point out that Smith’s yardage total was “misleading” because Kenneth Walker took a short pass and ran 64 yards for a touchdown. Folks, that is a feature, not a bug. You cannot complain and drool when Brock Purdy gets praise easy throws to Christian McCaffrey for long plays and then also diminish the accomplishment when Seattle finds a way to do the same thing.
It also was not just that one play. There were crossing patterns to Jaxon Smith-Njigba early and slants to D.K. Metcalf late that resulted in meaningful run after catch. There were swing passes to Zach Charbonnet for 5-10 yards, and screen passes to Will Dissly, Njigba, and Tyler Lockett. Four different players had YAC of 40+ yards.
Meanwhile, there were other benefits. The offensive line had to pass protect for deeper passes less often, and the defense had to account for these quicker hitting plays that punished defensive lineman for being too aggressive. That led to the lowest pressure rate (21%) of the season, per Brady Henderson of ESPN.
Less pressure and quicker throws meant only one sack, fewer negative plays, and no turnovers.
My four-part “get well” plan for Smith and this Seahawks offense has been:
- Throw the ball away when there is nothing there
- Make more on-time throws to outlet players (e.g., swing passes to running backs)
- Always have some sort of outlet route in the play (e.g., no more intermediate-to-deep or bust play designs)
- Run the damn ball
I talked about this on the Real Hawk Talk podcast two weeks ago. All of those seemed to happen in one form or another in this game. The first two are the responsibility of Smith. The last two are the responsibility of Waldron.
Nobody is going to mistake the Commanders defense for the Steel Curtain. They are near the bottom of the league for a reason. That said, the Seahawks did something nobody else had done against them this season when they dropped nearly 500 yards of offense (489) on Sunday. Josh Allen and the Bills didn’t do it. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles didn’t do it, despite having two chances.
It is also worth noting the last time the Seahawks had that many yards of offense was last year against the Lions. It’s been a loooong time. And if you don’t think the Seahawks have played defenses as bad as Washington’s during that stretch, you are wrong.
Metcalf, like Smith, has been an enigma this season. He has the eye-popping physical tools, but his production and performance has been middling at best. Yes, he has been dealing with some injuries. That does not fully explain the ineffectiveness we have seen. In this game, he too, had a bumpy first half where he proved again that despite having elite size and leaping ability, he is a poor contested catcher. I found myself wondering if the offense would be better off with Jake Bobo getting more of his snaps. At least Bobo makes the most of his opportunities.
Metcalf, though, was the alpha target we all want him to be down the stretch. Not only did he have the two big catches on the final drive, he drew a crucial pass interference call on a 4th down play that looked doomed, and may very well have led to a different final outcome had it failed.
Metcalf and Smith feel linked in a variety of ways. Many of Smith’s forced passes are to Metcalf. If they can find a way to get Metcalf more involved without the high risk throws, it would make a huge difference for other parts of the offense.
Lockett was great in this game, and caught what should have been the game-winner. Smith-Njigba is building each week, and flashed more dynamic playmaking in this game. Chemistry between Smith and Smith-Njigba remains one of the biggest keys to making this offense more repeatable and reliable.
Kenneth Walker had the key touchdown catch where he flashed his explosive play ability. Charbonnet was the guy I still came away talking about. Nearly all his plays are positive, and he also has a lot of explosive plays. Yet, even with all his production, he cannot seem to get more than 5-6 rushes a game. He should be getting at least 10 carries.
Some of those additional carries could come at the expense of Walker. Personally, I would be fine with that. Walker will be fresher and suffer less wear and tear. Some of the carries, though, should come from the Seahawks running the ball more.
This remains the least discussed storylines of the Seahawks season. The Seahawks are 27th in the NFL in rush attempts despite having a top ten EPA/rush offense. When have we ever had a Pete Carroll team that we are begging to run the ball more?
I was the weirdo fan at the game cheering when they ran the ball twice in a row, even if they only gained 2-3 yards (I was also the weirdo cheering for Smith when he threw the ball away, which got some looks for sure). Bring back the balance. Make this passing game tougher to defend by forcing opponents to account for the run. Give your offensive linemen a chance to lean forward instead of always falling backwards.
Seattle has yet to figure out their identity on offense. They are like the pubescent tween trying on different personalities to see what both works for them and for others. I think I see what that identity should be, and a key part of it is reducing the reliance on hero downfield throws from Smith. Those should be the cherry on top, not the bulk of the dish.
More running is absolutely part of the equation. You even saw a Commanders team who rarely runs and had been ineffective all game on those plays, run the ball 4-5 times in a row when it started working in the 4th quarter. Seattle gives Charbonnet the ball twice in a row and then pulls him after he gets 10+ yards on both plays, and goes back to passing. Stick with the body blows.
It was not only Smith and the offense that has a perplexing game. The defense gave up two big plays on scrambles, but had otherwise completely shut down a good Commanders offense for three quarters. Washington was right around 200 yards and had just 12 points. Then, the Seahawks offense finally got a 7-point lead and the defense fell apart.
Sam Howell and the offense scored two touchdowns while marching down long distances of Lumen Field, and nearly won this game. Had their kicker not missed an early extra point, who knows how things would have turned out.
Howell deserves a fair amount of credit for what happened. He made some fantastic throws, and created opportunities all game. The kid has a bright future. Still, it would have been nice to see the Seahawks defense get a stop when it was needed at the end.
Devon Witherspoon had a mostly good game, with a number of passes defensed and a forced fumble. The game-tying touchdown also went over his outstretched hand and he missed a few tackles.
Riq Woolen appeared to have a good game, and seems to be coming on. Tre Brown was mostly good again as well.
Boye Mafe getting another sack was fun, and Leonard Williams got his first sack as a Seahawk.
Seattle now turns their attention to a Rams team that started this season off with a thud. It is fitting that Abe Lucas is due to return to practice this week for the first time since that game. It is unlikely he will play, but the idea of getting him back is big. Seattle has yet to play a single full game with their five starters on the line. You can bet 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs and other teams would be getting a lot more excuses made for them if they had played the entire season without their starting line.
The Rams have lost three in a row but are expected to get Matthew Stafford back, who eviscerated the Seahawks in the first matchup. A win in that game would go a long way toward setting Seattle up for a successful playoff season.
Whether Smith, Waldron, Metcalf and crew can build on what they started in this game against the Commanders is the primary storyline. High reward, low probability plays can be thrilling. Modest reward, high probability plays can be the key to the type of offensive stability winning teams need. One of the most confusing seasons of Seahawks football continues next week.