49ers Fighting History

San Francisco has a historic season in 2011. They tied the NFL record for fewest giveaways, and piled up the 4th highest turnover differential (+28) since 1940. Few statistics have a higher correlation to wins than turnover differential, so it is worth looking into the chances that the 49ers could repeat the feat.

Here are the five teams that have posted at least a +28 turnover differential since 1940:

1983 Redskins +43
1958 Colts +30
1963 Bears +29
1960 Browns +28
2010 Patriots +28
2011 49ers +28

Each of the previous five teams to post a differential that high saw a drop the following season.


1983 Redskins -65%
1958 Colts -13%
1963 Bears -110%
1960 Browns -82%
2010 Patriots -39%

Three of the five teams saw their win total drop, the other two stayed steady:



1983 Redskins -3 wins
1958 Colts EVEN
1963 Bears -6 wins
1960 Browns EVEN
2010 Patriots -1 win

San Francisco will either become the first team in NFL history to repeat their level of turnover success, or will need to find other ways to win.

Being Chris Clemons

Imagine what the morning of March 15th, 2012 must have been like for Chris Clemons. He was probably eating his breakfast with ESPN on in the background when it got announced that Mario Williams signed a $100M free agent contract with guarantees totaling $50M. Clemons probably spit out his coffee.

He has collected 37.0 sacks in the last five seasons without missing any games, even while getting only partial playing time in places like Philadelphia. Williams has piled up 48.5 in the same time period while missing 14 games. Clemons has out-sacked Williams 22.0-13.5 in the past two seasons, and yet will have made $12.6M when this current contract ends after this season. Williams will make that about 1.5 seasons into his new deal.

Age matters in the NFL, and Williams being 27 to Clemons 30 has amajor impact on their valuations. A guy like Robert Mathis, 31, is a better comparable for Clemons to watch, and he was likely thrilled to see the 4 year, $36M deal Mathis signed a couple weeks before Williams. Mathis has 20.5 sacks the last two seasons, and plays a similar pass-rush focused role as Clemons.

Daydreaming about $36M probably gets interrupted by the realization that John Schneider will never spend that kind of money on a 31-year-old free agent defensive end. That means Clemons will enter the final year of his deal playing for a team that will not pay him his next contract. Another productive sack year will lead to a sizable free agent deal somewhere else, but any fall-off or injury could cost him tens of millions of dollars. Every snap, every walkthrough, could have massive repercussions. Fans will be quick to point out the millions of dollars he is getting paid to play this season, but how many people would be able to ignore the surrounding circumstances? Not many.

Now Bruce Irvin gets drafted in the first round. Pete Carroll is glowing like a rescue flare as he talks about how he has waited his whole career to get a LEO like Irvin. Clemons plays LEO, and has done a damn good job of it, thank you very much. It becomes just another sign that things are winding down in Seattle.

Seattle doesn't stop there. They add Greg Scruggs in the 7th, a guy who projects as a LEO as well. Dexter Davis is coming off an injury, and will be getting snaps as a situational pass rusher. The battle is not to replace Clemons. Irvin was clearly drafted for that. The battle will be to see if someone can take the spot Irvin will play this year and Raheem Brock filled the last two. Brock played for roughly $1M each season. That's the level Schneider is willing to pay for a defensive end in his early 30s.

Four of the top 20 sack artists in the NFL last season were 31 years or older. Clemons will have to have another productive season, stay healthy, and find a system that suits his talents. After all, he played for two other teams and never had more than 8.0 sacks. Posting another double-digit sack season will get him money from someone, just not Seattle.

Clemons has silently been a force against the run as well. He's made terrific goal-line and 4th down tackles. He is an emotional leader on the team, and has been able to get his sacks away from the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field. Replacing him will require more than finding 11.0 sacks.

The 2012 season will be a delicate dance for the front office and Clemons. Both are well aware of the situation. Seattle is hoping to turn a corner this season and become a Top 5 NFL defense. Doing that with a distracted or dejected Clemons will be far more challenging. The hope would be that the promise of a big free agent payday and would keep him bringing maximum effort. Carroll also counts on natural competitive spirit to kick in. Nobody likes getting their ass handed to them on the field.

A first salvo was fired when Clemons did not show up for any of the voluntary OTAs thus far. He is the only player who has not attended without a publicized reason (e.g., attending a funeral). It is a plot line worth monitoring. It is easy to forget that the game we love is played by people, with predictable human emotions. How Clemons handles his will play a major role in how this season unfolds for the Seahawks.

Top 5 Fun To Watch Seahawks Defenses

John Elway tried calling out the signals. He really did. The Kingdome crowd was doing its best to play defense through endless waves of sound, and it often worked. Rufus Porter stood along the edge in an upright sprinting stance. Elway was going to unwittingly fire the starting gun of a race where the finish line was his face. Somewhere in the din, the Broncos quarterback yelled, "Hike!" and the race was on. Porter has taken two steps before the lineman moves to block him. It's too late. Porter is running the perfect parabola around the blocker and is closing quickly on his target. Boom.

The late 80's, early 90s Seahawks defenses that featured players like Porter, Jacob Green, Jeff Bryant, Eugene Robinson, Joe Nash was fun to watch. They were more effort than flash, but Porter provided his fair share of excitement with arguably the best speed rush in franchise history. Green was still posting big sack seasons (12.5 in 1990) in his early 30s, but was more likely to beat a lineman with his hands or a move than run right around him. Porter became one of my favorite Seahawks of all-time. His presence was a big part of why that era of Seahawks defense makes my Top 5. Here they are in descending order:

Note: I became a Seahawks fan in the mid-80s, so I never saw arguably the best defense in franchise history in 1984.


#5 - 2005 Seahawks 
To understand the appeal of the 2005 Seahawks defense, one first needs to appreciate the frustration of the 2004 squad. While Shaun Alexander was running for 1,700 yards and 16 TDs, partnering with Matt Hasselbeck to lead a potent Seahawks offense to lofty offensive rankings, the Seahawks defense was starting players like Chike Okeafor, Isaiah Kacyvenski, Rashad Moore and Cedric Woodard. They finished 22nd in the NFL in scoring defense and 26th in the NFL in yards allowed. Then came Lofa Tatupu, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Chuck Darby, Andre Dyson, and even Marquand Manuel. Seattle's 2005 squad was disciplined and sure-handed. It felt like no tackle was ever missed. Tatupu famously was seen re-arranging the defensive lineman pre-snap to put them in the best position to succeed. For the first time, Seattle's defense seemed smart and a step ahead. It helped to have the franchise's best offense possessing the ball and scoring the 2nd most points in the NFL, but the defense was vastly improved. Marcus Tubbs was the Red Bryant of that squad. A major difference maker who had only one great season before succumbing to injury. The overall rankings showed 7th in points against and 16th in yards allowed, but it was the Red Zone defense that was memorable. Few teams exited with touchdowns.

#4 - 1996 Seahawks
This team won't show up on many lists outside of this one. They finished last in the AFC West, and did not enjoy many top rankings. What they lacked in overall effectiveness, they made up for in pass rush. No Seahawks defensive line has ever been this dominant. Michael Sinclair put up 13.0 sacks, Michael McCrary put up 13.5, Cortez Kennedy had 8.0, and a young Sam Adams had 5.5. Those four players accounted for 40 of the team's 48 sacks. They spent so much effort getting off the ball to chase the quarterback, that they were one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Still, a ton of fun to watch whenever the opposing quarterback dropped back to pass.


#3 - 2011 Seahawks
Nothing is more emasculating as a football fan than when opponents can run at will. It is a hopeless feeling. The 2011 Seahawks started by stopping the run. Red Bryant, Brandon Mebane, Alan Branch and Chris Clemons made up one of the best run-stopping lines in franchise history. They were supported by thumpers like Kam Chancellor, Hill, David Hawthorne and K.J. Wright. Earl Thomas darted in and around the opposing line to pull down backs before they got started. Opponents who tried to pass were faced with the most physical secondary in the NFL with Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. Tackling was superb, and the youth made it feel like every new game was going to be better than the last. The only thing holding this defense back from being the most fun to watch was an inconsistent pass rush and an offense that failed to possess the ball for the first eight games. The linebackers were largely ordinary as well. If only they could add a speed rusher, an interior rusher, and some quicker players at the linebacker position...


#2 - 1992 Seahawks
Only a historically terrible Seahawks offense could obscure what very well could have been the franchise's best defense. Kennedy was the most dominant player Seattle had seen on that side of the ball. Jacob Green and Kenny Easley were fantastic, but their positions made it impossible to control a game the way Kennedy did from the middle of the line. He was a wrecking ball slamming into opposing lines snap after snap, and the lineman looked like bowling pins getting knocked every which way as they bounced off of him. Nobody blocked Kennedy that year. Nobody. He registered 14.0 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and an astounding 92 tackles from the DT position. Kennedy wrecked the interior while Porter crashed the edge for 9.5 sacks. Robinson took advantage to the tune of 7 interceptions. Opposing quarterbacks rarely had a chance. Seattle was ranked 4th in passing yards allowed and 1st in passing TDs allowed. Their lower ranks in rush defense were a direct result of opposing offenses being on the field for nearly the entire game due to the inept Seahawks offense. The fact that this crew ended the season ranked 10th in the NFL in total yards allowed was miraculous. Even a league-average offense would have made this defense best in the NFL.

#1 - 1998 Seahawks
Surprise! Most Seahawks fans remember the 1998 season for the Vinny Testeverde "helmet-gate" play where Seattle was denied a playoff spot when Testeverde's helmet was mistaken for the football and declared a touchdown. What people forget is Jim Johnson bringing the most entertaining brand of defense seen around these parts. Blitzes came from everywhere and everyone. Turnovers popped out of opponents hands and found their way back to their endzone at a dizzying pace. There were eight, EIGHT, defensive touchdowns that season. Darrin Smith and Shawn Springs had two apiece. Willie Williams, Anthony Simmons and Adams each had one. Chad Brown was a revelation at linebacker, putting up 7.5 sacks and making plays literally all over the field. Watching Brown make open-field tackles was like watching Picasso paint the Mona Lisa. He never missed a tackle, no matter how much green field was around him. No other defender has matched his skill on the outside in that way. Springs picked off seven of the teams 24 interceptions, and did it with flare. Sinclair added 16.5 sacks and Phillip Daniels chipped in 6.5. Heck, even Matt LaBounty had 6.0. It was honestly disappointing when the Seahawks offense would come out on the field because the defense was so much fun to watch. Johnson was the mastermind, and letting him go became one of Mike Holmgren's worst decisions. Eagles fans got to watch his defenses punish opposing quarterbacks for a decade after he left.

2012 Seahawks Poised To Have Special Turnover Season

Two takeaways through four games. That was how the 2011 Seahawks started the season. Three of their first four games resulted in a goose egg in the takeaway column. Their turnover differential through those four games was a dismal -4. My handy dandy calculator tells me that would have ended up at -16 if the trend had continued through the last three-quarters of the season. Instead, the Seahawks finished 2011 with a +8 differential, good for 5th in the NFL, the third-highest ranking in that category in the history of the franchise. There is reason to expect an even better performance this year.

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Pete Carroll stresses both protecting the ball and taking it from opponents. Seattle did a reasonable job of protecting the ball in the first quarter of last season. They had one or fewer turnovers in two of those four games. The bigger issue was forcing turnovers. That changed in the Giants game, where the team forced five turnovers, and began a streak 10 games with at least one takeaway. No team in the NFL was forcing more turnovers than the Seahawks defense in weeks 10-15. There were a couple of factors that clearly contributed to this uprising.

Seattle was not generating any sort of pass rush early on. Their eventual rank of 19th in the NFL in sacks would seem to indicate they never really did. The truth is that the defense saw an almost linear increase in sacks as the season wore on. They were averaging 1.25 sacks in the first four games, 2.0 in the next four, 2.25 in the third quarter of the season, and ended by averaging 2.75 over the last four. The Eagles and Vikings led the NFL in sacks with an average of 3.1 sacks per game. Seattle's average of 2.75 over the last four games would have ranked 7th in the NFL if they had kept up that pace over a whole season. The correlation between Seahawks sacks and opponent turnovers was quite high (.47). In other words, the more the Seahawks sack the opposing quarterback, the more opponents turn the ball over.

Sacks don't happen in isolation. Richard Sherman joined the pass defense in that fifth game against the Giants. He was a starter two games later. Opposing quarterbacks struggled mightily after that point, helping the Seahawks finish fifth in the NFL in opponent passer rating (74.8) after being 22nd (91.7) through the first four games. Fans can decide which was the chicken and which was the egg in this scenario, but it is no mystery that good coverage leads to more sacks and more pass pressure leads to better coverage due to less time for quarterbacks to find a receiver. The combination of the two led directly to more takeaways.

The 2011 Seahawks finished 5th in the NFL in turnover differential, 3rd-highest ranking in team history.

Various studies have proven there is a strong correlation between turnover differential and winning. Last season was no different. Seven of the top ten teams in turnover differential made the playoffs, with the top three being the winningest teams in the NFL last year. Of course, a good differential is about protecting the ball, not just taking it away. Seattle has one turnover or less in seven of their final eight games.

Seahawks fans should all remember what happened over those final eight games. The team started running effectively. Interestingly, the strongest correlation to reduced turnovers was not rushing yards (-0.06) or even rush attempts (-.23). Note, that negative correlations mean the more of one thing (e.g., rushing yards or rush attempts), the less of something else (e.g., turnovers). The strongest correlation was to pass attempts (.56). The more Seattle put the ball in the air, the more they turned it over. That is going to be somewhat true across football, but a correlation that high indicates some real weakness in the passing game. Fans can decide how much of that was the quarterback versus offensive line protection versus receivers.

John Schneider and Carroll has spent a lot of effort this off-season improving areas that should lead directly to fewer giveaways and more takeaways. Seattle's first round pick, Bruce Irvin, and free agent Jason Jones should do nothing but improve the pass rush. Improved quarterback competition with Matt Flynn and Russell Wilson can only help the passing game. Robert Turbin and an improved offensive line should keep the running game strong. The vaunted Seattle secondary should only get stronger, both with more experience and with what should be an improved pass rush.

Fewer giveaways and more takeaways points to a spike in wins. Yet another reason to be bullish about 2012 for Seattle fans.

Seahawks Arsenal Best In NFC West

Kellen Winslow Jr. joined the Seahawks via trade last night. Seattle reportedly surrendered a 7th round draft choice that can turn into a 6th if certain performance measures are met. General Manager John Schneider continues his pattern of limited downside, significant upside moves with the former Pro Bowl tight end whose worst full season output would represent a 20% improvement over John Carlson's best season, and comes far cheaper (Carlson signed a 5 year, $25M deal with the Vikings). Adding Winslow gives the Seahawks two Pro Bowl tight ends, a Pro Bowl running back, and a receiver who made the Pro Bowl in his last full season. The team has quietly assembled the best offensive arsenal in the NFC West, and one that stacks up favorably with some of the best in the NFC.

Arizona Cardinals fans will quickly point out they have the best offensive weapon in the division in Larry Fitzgerald, and running back Beanie Wells, who nearly matched Marshawn Lynch's output last season. Early Doucet is a nice complementary receiver, and rookie Michael Floyd is a wild card. Most rookie receivers fail to make much of an impact. Todd Heap is a nice tight end, but is 32 years-old.

Much hinges on Rice's health. He was on pace for a 1,000+ yard season last year despite terrible early offensive line play and mediocre quarterback play. Rice outplayed Fitzgerald in their one match-up last season, for what that's worth.

Doug Baldwin and Doucet have to be considered equals until one of them separates from the other. Fitzgerald is better than Rice, but not by leaps and bounds when Rice is healthy. Lynch and Wells are roughly equivalent in terms of production, but Lynch is more durable and deserves the nod for more consistent output. Zach Miller is 26 years-old and has proven that he is a threat receiving. Last year was an aberration due to the line and quarterback. Healthy players don't have their production cut in half because they all-of-sudden stop being talented. He was a Pro Bowl player the year before Seattle acquired him, and undoubtedly is the superior player when compared to Heap. Winslow Jr. versus Jeff King? Add Leon Washington, Robert Turbin (it is far easier to project immediate contributions from rookie running backs than rookie receivers), and whoever emerges from the scrum of Ricardo Lockette, Mike Williams, Kris Durham, and Golden Tate. It is hard to argue the Cardinals have any advantage up and down the depth chart outside of Fitzgerald.

San Francisco has the best tight end pair in the NFC with Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. But, wait, do they? It was surprising to see that Winslow Jr. has dramatically outproduced Davis in some key areas.

Kellen Winslow Jr. has produced better per-season averages than Vernon Davis in key stats

Take out Winslow Jr.'s rookie season when he only played two games due a major off-field injury, and his per-season averages for receptions and yards far outpaces Davis. Davis is considered one of the best tight ends in all of football. Seattle just acquired a player that outproduces him for a 7th round draft pick. Miller has made a Pro Bowl, and is among the best blockers at the tight end position in the NFL. Perhaps, we should not be so quick to hand the best tight end pair crown in the division to the 49ers.

San Francisco added Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and rookie AJ Jenkins to Michael Crabtree. The group is a mix of unpredictability and talent. Nobody should be surprised if Moss has another big year, but what happens next year? Crabtree put up some decent numbers, but has never approached a player defenses need to game plan for. He could easily see his production drop precipitously with the other players thrown into the mix. Manningham is just a guy. He benefited from playing with a decent quarterback in a pass-heavy offense. Baldwin is a better player than either Crabtree or Manningham. Rice and Moss cancel each other out due to their high upside and unpredictability. The upside of a player like Lockette is more appealing than many of the receivers on the 49ers roster, but he has two career receptions.

Frank Gore has been a great back, but is 29. Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James are great young players behind him. The overall collection of Lynch, Turbin and Washington wins largely on Lynch being even with Gore on talent/production, but being years younger. Hunter does not look like an every down back, and James is questionable in that role. Gore's time is winding down, and someone needs to step into that position.

The difference between the 49ers and Seahawks offensive weapons is not quite what I expected. Arguments could be made on either side, but Seattle's weapons are young enough to grow with the team. San Francisco has some players aging out of value, and others that are short-term band-aids. They may be more effective in 2012, but beyond that favors Seattle.

With all due respect to Stephen Jackson, the Rams just aren't worth evaluating on offensive weapons yet.

Consider what the Seahawks ran out there before Carroll and Schneider joined. Julius Jones at running back, with Justin Forsett and Edgerrin James behind him. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Deon Butler at receiver, and Carlson and Josh Owens at tight end. Burleson was a great receiver (still is), but the rest of that is cringe-worthy. Schneider has completely made over the offense in three off-seasons. Now, it's up to Matt Wilson Jackson to get them the damn ball and score some points.

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Imagining Russell Wilson As A Starter Week One

Much has been made of Pete Carroll's pronouncement this weekend that Russell Wilson will vie for the starting job. Logic dictates that if there is already a two-man competition for the starting role, Wilson would need to join that competition if the team hopes he could even become the back-up. It would not make much sense to have Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Flynn battle for #1, and then just hand the #2 role to a guy that was not even in the mix. That said, this could be more than a veiled tactic to move Wilson into the back-up role. Wilson has the talent, make-up and backing of the front office to find his way all the way at the top of the heap. That scenario has some pros and cons.

Wilson winning the job would obviously mean Flynn was the back-up, a role he is certainly familiar with, but not what he envisioned after reaching free agency. It is one thing to say all the right things about knowing this was an open competition, and quite another to actually accept losing. Flynn does not seem to be the malcontent type. This scenario would certainly test that. Most importantly, fans would not get a chance to see Flynn in action during a regular season game. The impact on Wilson's career development could be significant.

Drew Brees, who Wilson is often compared, played only one game in his rookie season and then sported a pedestrian 76.9 rating in his first full season as starter for the Chargers. He dropped to 67.5 in his second starting season. Peyton Manning has a 71.2 rating his rookie year, starting out of the gate. Matt Hasselbeck went for 70.9 during his first season in Seattle. Jackson was 79.2 last year behind a shoddy line and with a torn pectoral muscle. What happens to Wilson if he gets mediocre-to-poor results out of the gate?

Here you have Flynn, who was signed to a lot of fan fare, and has thrown for 20,000 yards and 45 touchdowns in his two NFL starts, sitting on the sideline making $6M. It is hard to see how Wilson would be setup to succeed in that situation. Andy Dalton made the Pro Bowl as a rookie last year with an 80.4 passer rating. That included games of 40.8 and 64.4 in the first few weeks of the season. Seattle plays the Cowboys, Packers, Patriots, 49ers, and Lions in the first half of the season. It is reasonable to expect a rookie, even a good rookie, to put up some stinkers in that stretch.

The rest of the team is setup to be elite in 2012. The defense should be in the top five. The special teams could be top five. The running game could be top ten, at least. Games could be lost by inexperienced quarterback play. That's quite a load to put on young shoulders, even for a guy as mature as Wilson.

It is hard to imagine a scenario where the pressure to play Flynn would not reach a point where Wilson took a seat. One could argue that would be a learning experience, and help his development down the road. It could also make coaches less comfortable turning back to him. That may sound silly, but try to remember just how bad Hasselbeck was in his first season in Seattle. He was awful. Very few coaches would have ever given him another shot. Trent Dilfer's injury in 2002 opened the door. Think about how much Seattle would have missed if Hasselbeck has never gotten a chance to fulfill his potential.

Not all rookie quarterbacks struggle. Ben Roethlisberger managed a 98.1 rating behind a team with a similar defense/running game style of play. Mark Sanchez had a horrible 63.0 rating, but played well in the playoffs for the Jets. Cam Newton blew up last season, but his style of play is so unique that it is hard to really compare him to anyone else. Matt Ryan went for an 87.7 rating in his rookie campaign. More often, quarterbacks appear to develop a higher ceiling when they sit for at least one season. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Brees, are just a few examples of players who benefited from some time observing.

All this applies to Flynn as well. He has sat, but it will be hard for him to hold the starting job if Wilson impresses during the pre-season and Flynn struggles during the season. Whoever wins the starting spot deserves a full season to grow into the position. That is the best way to set the team and the player up for success.