Seahawks Wide Receiver Squeeze Is Overblown

Seattle made possibly the biggest move of the NFL off-season when they traded for former Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin. They signed him to a big new deal, cementing his place as a major part of the Seahawks offense for the foreseeable future. Increasingly, there has been conjecture on sports radio and among some local writers that the addition of Harvin, and now promising starts for rookie tight end Luke Willson and rookie receiver Chris Harper, will mean a drastic change for Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin. This Seahawks offense attempted fewer passes than any team in football last year, so how will they keep everyone involved? Some are already talking about trades. The logic of these conversations is sound, but the facts may surprise people.

MYTH #1 - There are only enough snaps in this offense for three receivers

Seattle wide receivers had 2,370 snaps last season, according to the totals on FootballOutsiders.com. Sidney Rice led the way with 765 snaps, or 75% of the offensive plays. Tate was second with 715. Baldwin was third with 434. The next highest receiver was Braylon Edwards with 149. That would seem to support the myth. Look again. Ben Obomanu, Jermaine Kearse, Charly Martin, and Deon Butler combined for 307 additional snaps. That means 456 snaps were taken by receivers either not on the roster or unlikely to play this season. That is more than Baldwin received last year.

Adding a player like Harvin will definitely shake up the distribution of snaps, but there are plenty of snaps to support a fourth receiver, even if the offense does not increase the use of three and four receiver sets or have more overall offensive snaps. Should the team get more snaps and use more 3+ receiver sets, which I anticipate, the total opportunities will only increase.

MYTH #2 - The team does not pass enough to support four or five receivers

There were 399 targets in the passing game last year. Targets are throws at a specific player, as opposed to completions. I prefer to focus on targets as it is a better measure of how often a team passes than completions. Again, Rice led the way with 80 targets. Tate was second with 68. And Baldwin was third among receivers with 49. All the other receivers combined for 40 targets. That total also nearly matches what Baldwin registered last season.

The logical prediction is that the team will attempt even more passes this season now that Russell Wilson is allowed complete access to the playbook from week one. However, it is worth remembering that when the team caught fire in the last half of the season, they actually attempted fewer passes per game than they had earlier in the year. It still seems safe to predict a 10-20% bump in pass attempts in 2013. That, alone, should allow for plenty of breathing room in terms of receiver targets.

The upshot of replacing those distributed targets with a player like Baldwin, Tate, Harvin or Rice is that the catch (receptions / targets) is bound to increase. The sum of those five other receivers was 19 receptions in 40 targets for a 47.5% catch rate. Baldwin, for example, finished with 29 catches in 49 targets for a 59% catch rate. That is how you raise the quality and efficiency of play.

MYTH #3 - Luke Willson will take away snaps from receivers

This one could have some fact mixed in with the myth. Only time will tell if the team decides to employ more three tight-end sets, but it seems unlikely given the team's success in running the ball out of a two tight-end formation. The guy who may be looking over his shoulder is Anthony McCoy. I am a big fan of McCoy, as he is a very capable blocker and showed great strides in hanging onto the ball when it was thrown his way last year. His challenge is that he is an unrestricted free agent after this season, and it is hard to imagine the team will pony up what will be necessary to retain him. 

Zach Miller was on the field for 850 snaps, over 83% of the team's plays in 2013. McCoy was second with 466, more than Baldwin (434). Evan Moore and Sean McGrath totaled 107 snaps as the third tight end. Willson or McGrath, whoever wins the third tight end job, will likely get more snaps than that in 2013, but that will likely come at the expense of McCoy and even Miller to make for a more even rotation. Miller will still get the lion's share, but the rest may be more evenly divided and Miller may get a bit more rest.

Where the tight ends may impact the receivers is in targets. Seattle threw to tight ends on only 21% of their throws last year. The Patriots are the other end of the spectrum. Even with an injured Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski last year, they still threw to their tight ends 28% of the time. That number was 39% in 2011 when both players were healthy. Seattle is not likely to match a rate that high, but it is reasonable to expect a shift of 2-5% going toward the tight ends. 

MYTH #4 - When Harvin is on the field, Baldwin or Tate will always be off

Harvin will get a fair share of time at running back. Look for a number of three receiver sets with Harvin in at tailback. He may take as many snaps away from Robert Turbin and Christine Michael as he does from either Tate or Baldwin. 

SUMMARY

Adding a player of Harvin's talent to a team is clearly going to impact the playing time and opportunities for other player's on the offense. His addition, alone, is not enough to force one of the top three receivers from last year's squad out of the rotation. There will be plenty of snaps and targets for players to make an impact, even if not to the level of receivers who play on more pass-oriented attacks.   Many are far too quick to write off a player like Baldwin, who fought through injuries last year after leading the team in receptions as a rookie. Only five Seahawks receivers in franchise history have totaled more than his 80 receptions through their first two years in the NFL. Those are names like Joey Galloway, Brian Blades, and Steve Largent. Seeing that he is a restricted free agent next year gives the team little incentive to push him down the depth chart artificially. 

The true wildcard for the receivers will be the play of Harper. He can play outside, and is said to have some ability in the slot. Darrell Bevell would have to dial up a significantly higher percentage of throws for five receivers to get meaningful playing time. More likely, Harper will be a red zone specialist as a rookie, and be ready to seize more time in 2014. 

A lot of assumptions are being made in May that are being based on incomplete information. The most likely scenario to look for at this point is a far more efficient and potent four receiver rotation than the Wilson had at any time last year, making this offense that much more difficult to defend.

Projecting Russell Wilson's Sophomore Season Part II: The Century Club

Russell Wilson was a revelation as a rookie. He led the Seahawks to a playoff victory, and very nearly the NFC Championship game. Everyone wants to see what he does in his second season. Some talk of sophomore slumps. This series will explore what history can tell us about just what to expect from Wilson in 2013.

No rookie quarterback had ever finished a season with a 100.0 passer rating or higher. Two, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III, managed the feat in 2012. Plenty of advanced stat aficionados roll their eyes at passer rating. It does not penalize a quarterback for a sack. An interception thrown during a Hail Mary at the end of the half hurts a rating as much as one thrown that changes the game. All these criticisms are fair, if not a little obnoxious, but I have found passer rating to be a rather good measure of quality quarterback play. Take the players ranked 11-20 in passer rating in any given season and try to make a case for them to be ranked as have a better season than the players ranked 1-10. This measure of quarterback play sorts the great from the good, from the mediocre and poor, pretty well. So when I tell you no more than five players have reached that century mark in passer rating in any given NFL season, know that Wilson and Griffin's accomplishment was about much more than setting a rookie mark. 

In fact, only 32 quarterbacks have met the 100.0 bar (minimum 10 starts) since 2000. That works out to about 2.5 per season. Only eight--including Wilson and Griffin--have done it within the first three years of their career. Of the six players that did it before Wilson and Griffin, only one managed to reach that level again in their career, and that was Kurt Warner.

Carson Palmer reached a career high 101.1 in his second season. Chad Pennington hit 104.2 in his third. Brian Griese went for 102.9 in his third. Dan Marino sparkled at 108.9 as a sophomore, and Roger Staubach slayed the other players of his generation with a 104.9 his third season. 

That tells us getting to the century mark in passer rating is no easy task. It also tells us reaching that mark early does not guarantee the player a great career. See Pennington and Griese. But let's not forget we are in uncharted territory. No rookie quarterback has done what Wilson and Griffin did before last year, and looking at more recent history than Pennington (2002) and Griese (2000) would seem to indicate the likelihood of anything but stardom for a player hitting the century mark to be remote.

Only eight quarterbacks other than Griffin and Wilson that have passed for a rating at 100.0+ since 2008. Those players are:

Peyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Ben Roethlisberger

Aaron Rodgers

Tony Romo

Philip Rivers

Michael Vick

That is not bad company to keep. 

Maintaining that level of performance is not necessary to reach the ultimate goal. Only three of the quarterbacks for the last thirteen Super Bowl winners finished the regular season with a 100.0 passer rating or higher. That said, there is plenty of evidence to suggest Wilson's ability to reach that mark in his rookie year greatly reduces the risk of him slumping as a sophomore.

Thoughts On The Bruce Irvin Suspension

News of Bruce Irvin's suspension for performance enhancing drugs broke yesterday and the reactions were predictably varied. Anger, judgment, sympathy, and blind devotion all made their customary appearances. The one thing everyone could agree on was disappointment. Disappointment that a young man did not have the strength to deny himself a drug he knew he should not take. Disappointment that another Seahawks player tarnished his reputation, and that of the organization and city he represents. Disappointment that a franchise so desperate to win its first Super Bowl will start the journey at a self-induced deficit. It is natural that some feel the need to direct their frustration at Irvin and that others choose to throw themselves in front of the oncoming attacks. The ritual has become somewhat tired in an American culture so desperate to find heroes, and equally determined to tear them down. We have even seen people whose true heroism led to ego and excess that led to villainous acts they may have otherwise never done. One decision can define the perception of a person, but can never define the person.

Irvin made a mistake. Any good behavioral psychologist will tell you to let he consequences do the work for you. People piling on Irvin and reminding him of his mistake will do little to reduce the risk of it happening again. The $200K in salary he is going to lose, the knowledge that he let down his teammates and fans, the moment when he sees his team take the field without him will have a far greater impact than any self-righteous tweet sent his way. It is a painful lesson, and one he knows he should have already learned.

Some have turned their attention to Pete Carroll, pointing out that he needs to get control of his locker room. Those folks have not been paying close enough attention (and that's not an Adderall joke). No player has a safe spot on this team. Irvin was a first-round pick last year, but is 26-years-old. The team has Cliff Avril for two years, and he is only 27. They signed Michael Bennett for only one year and he is 27 as well. Irvin was set to compete for the starting SAM linebacker spot that would shift K.J. Wright over to WILL. This suspension may give Malcolm Smith the extra chance he needs to win the WILL spot and keep Wright at SAM.

Carroll controls this locker room by having a flashing neon "EXIT" sign in plain view. You can count on John Schneider stock-piling more edge pass rushers in next year's draft, and possibly adding more in free agency. Irvin cannot defend his spot on the sidelines.

One thing that is becoming clear to me is that Adderall is far more prevalent than I realized. This is not an athlete issue. This is a generational issue, and perhaps, a societal issue.

The definition of ADHD is being broadened which will lead to more prescriptions for drugs like Adderall and Ritalin. It is counter-intuitive that two players playing the same game could be taking the same drug, and only one is violating the rules. It is also questionable whether Adderall use in the off-season does anything to enhance a player's performance during the season. This is not a steroid that builds muscle and aids in recovery.

None of this minimizes an athlete's decision to take a substance they know is against the rules. It simply makes me wonder if the NFL is missing a larger problem, and if the current designation of PED makes the most sense versus a substance abuse categorization that would allow intervention prior to suspension, especially during the off-season.

The net result in the Seahawks lose an important player for the beginning of a promising season. One more spot on the roster is open to win for at least four games. Only Irvin knows if a lesson was truly learned.

Projecting Russell Wilson's Sophomore Season Part I: The History Of Rookie Winners

Russell Wilson was a revelation as a rookie. He led the Seahawks to a playoff victory, and very nearly the NFC Championship game. Everyone wants to see what he does in his second season. Some talk of sophomore slumps. This series will explore what history can tell us about just what to expect from Wilson in 2013.

There are many ways to evaluate quarterbacks. Touchdown passes, completion percentage, passing yards, interceptions, passer rating, and ESPN's QBR are among the most popular. The most obvious one is often overlooked--wins. After all, that is why you play the game. Russell Wilson joined a select fraternity of rookie quarterbacks when he quarterbacked his team to eleven wins. Only six players have accomplished that feat, and only one of those players won more than eleven games as a rookie.

The names on the list are impressive:

Ben Roethlisberger 13-0 (only started 13 games as a rookie)

Andrew Luck 11-5

Matt Ryan 11-5

Joe Flacco 11-5

Dieter Brock 11-4 (Brock played only one season as a 34-year-old Rams rookie)

Russell Wilson 11-5

I was curious how rookie quarterbacks that experienced this kind of success held up to expectations in their second season. As Luck was a rookie last year along with Wilson, and Brock was a single season player, that leaves us with three players to look at.

Roethlisberger

Seahawks fans should remember pretty clearly how Roethlisberger followed up his rookie season. It ended with him hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Detroit after leading his team to an 11-5 wild card season. He was responsible for a 9-3 record that year as he lost four games to injury. His statistics were nearly identical to his rookie season, with slight improvements in decision-making indicators like interception percentage and sack percentage. There was no evidence of a sophomore slump for him or his team.

Ryan

The Falcons slid to 9-7 in Ryan's second season after his 11-5 rookie campaign, but that was a bit misleading. Ryan was 9-5 as a starter, and the team lost the two games he missed with an injury. Ryan had his worst statistical season as a sophomore, seeing his passer rating drop to 80.9, his yards per attempt drop to 6.0, his completion percentage fail to reach the 60% mark, and his passing yards to fall below 3,000. All of those numbers are career lows through five seasons. This was not just about Ryan backsliding. Michael Turner was hurt for five games and a rushing attack that finished second in the NFL when Ryan was a rookie, was 15th in the NFL in year two. Let's come back to that later. The Falcons failed to make the playoffs after losing in the first round the year before.

Flacco

Flacco's Ravens dropped from 11-5 to 9-7 in his second year. Flacco was certainly not the reason for the slide. He improved his passer rating from 80.3 to 88.9. His sack and interception percentages went down while his touchdown and completion percentage went up. He threw for nearly 700 more yards and raised his yards per attempt. The comparison of the Ravens 2008 and 2009 seasons is a bizarre one as the offense and defense performed at approximately the same levels, but won two fewer games. Five of their losses were by less than a touchdown, so they just didn't get the breaks it would seem. They eventually lost in the second round of the playoffs, a step behind where they finished in Flacco's rookie year.

The rushing attack is a young quarterback's best friend. It forces a defense to stay honest in terms of pass pressure, and puts the team in manageable downs and distances. All three of these rookie winners had an offense ranked in the top five in rushing yards to help them. The one player that saw their performance degrade in their second season, and their team's fortunes along with it, was also the one player that experienced a major drop-off in the running game. 

	Team Rushing Rank (YDs)  YR 1	Team Rushing Rank (YDs)  YR 2
Ben Roethlisberger	2	5
Matt Ryan	2	15
Joe Flacco	4	5

The Seahawks continue to invest heavily in their running game, spending their second round pick on Christine Michael and additional depth on the offensive line. Throw in Wilson's contribution to the running game, and there is little reason to project a major drop-off in productivity from the running game.

Even Ryan, who took a step back in his second season, rebounded with a vengeance. He led his team to a 13-3 record and division title in his third season, despite a rushing attack that still was middle-of-the-road. The truth is, there is little evidence to suggest rookie winners at the quarterback position are in serious jeopardy of seeing their performance and team record go downhill as sophomores. No rookie quarterback that has won even nine games as a rookie has ever had a team with a losing record in their second season. Chris Chandler's Indianapolis Colts went from 9-7 in his rookie year in 1988 to 8-8 in 1989, but that's as bad as it gets for this class of quarterbacks.

Wilson was among the winningest rookie quarterbacks in NFL history. Some would say the higher you start, the farther you fall. Evidence suggests otherwise when it comes to rookie winners.