Thursday, March 15, 2012

Seahawks Thoughts: Day Two Of Free Agency

Robert Gallery was the most obvious free agent signing the Seahawks made last season. He became the most unexpected Seahawks free agent this season after being released by the team. Gallery, 31, started the season injured, but managed to play through it for the bulk of the year. He was the one free agent the Seahawks signed over the age of 26, and the team has already made the decision to reclaim some $5M of cap space instead of keeping him on the roster.

The reason for the move is a driven by a combination of factors. Paul McQuistan was forced into action late in the year when John Moffit was injured. He played well at guard, and then at left tackle. The team re-signed him yesterday. Lemuel Juanpierre filled in at guard when McQuistan moved to left tackle, and he played well. James Carpenter had a serious knee injury, and was already questionable in terms of lateral quickness for a tackle. This may clear the path for Carpenter to transition to guard permanently. Giacomini showed promise at right tackle, and will likely start the season there no matter what due to Carpenter's injury. This could open the position to him long-term. Last, Steve Hutchinson was in Seattle for a visit yesterday, and could be signed for veteran depth. He has been injured and less effective the past two years, but Juanpierre, Giacomini and Carpenter give the team enough depth to not need to rely on Hutch if he signs. He would likely compete for the role, but would only be signed if he'd be willing to back-up should he lose the competition.

Jason Jones was still in St.Louis as of last night, having dinner with former Titans teammate, and newly signed Ram, CB Cortland Finnegan. The Rams are doing everything they can to sign him, and there are conflicting reports this morning that Jones was either on his way to Seattle or heading back to Ram headquarters in the morning before flying out to Seattle. It seems logical that the Rams convinced him to stop by one more time before leaving. It also seems logical that Jones and his agent are using the threat of this Seahawks visit to make the Rams desperate enough to propose a higher offer. Jones knows Fisher and the defense he runs. Until he leaves St. Louis, fans should expect that he will sign there. If he gets to Seattle, game on.

Chad Henne signed with Jacksonville. {Shrugs shoulders} Matt Flynn is supposed to visit Seattle today. Reports are that he is only being offered back-up money so far. Seattle would be silly not to make him an incentive-laden offer that starts at a level similar to Tarvaris Jackson, but escalates if he earns the starter role and other performance-related thresholds. Flynn would be signed here to compete for the starting role, not get it handed to him. That continues to be the reason he would be a more likely fit in Miami where he would take over for Matt Moore from the get-go. Cleveland may have cooled on Flynn because they believe Matt Hasselbeck will come available in the wake of a Peyton Manning signing. If that somehow does not play out, they could get back in on Flynn if he has not signed yet. It benefits no sides to in this to move quickly. It would be surprising if Flynn signs a deal before leaving Seattle.

John Carlson signed with Minnesota. Don't lose sleep over that. He was not a fit here due to his inferior blocking. The Vikings former tight end Visanthe Shiancoe is said to be coming in for a visit. He is 31. Getting a 31-year-old free agent is never appealing (see Gallery), and getting one at a position where you already have Zach Miller, Anthony McCoy and Cameron Morrah is a little puzzling. Darrell Bevel and Tarvaris Jackson obviously know him from the Vikings, so it may just be someone who can step in for a year and contribute. That takes snaps away from developing younger players, so it better be worth it.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Seahawks Thoughts: Day One Of Free Agency

There is an old saying that movement does not equal progress. Free agency in the NFL proves that more than most things. Teams that make a lot of noise with big signings rarely are the ones making significant progress on the field. The Philadelphia Eagles were dubbed the "Dream Team" by some after their free agent spending spree last year, but the results did not match the hype. Meanwhile, a team like San Francisco let a number of players leave and signed only modest names, and nearly went to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks front office has been taking a discerning approach to free agency in their first few seasons. They will not turn up their noses at free agency, but there are certain qualifications they look for. Namely, they want someone young (25 is ideal, no older than 27 in most cases), affordable (i.e., not record-setting deals or big guaranteed dollars that gum up the salary cap), and with a high ceiling.

Players like Mario Williams just don't fit the profile for what the Seahawks target in free agency. If his price was far lower, you can bet they'd love to have him, but they will not move off their principles. Williams is said to have spent the evening with the Bills, who are talking about making him the highest paid defensive player in the league, with as much as $50M guaranteed. That will not happen with the Seahawks. Move on, folks.

Matt Flynn is reportedly negotiating with the Browns and the Dolphins (or not). Bidding wars on players of uncertain quality are also not something the Seahawks are likely to dive into. Flynn is going to get a premium starting quarterbacks salary. He becomes the person Schneider and Carroll pin their legacy to if they sign him to a contract like that. If you were in their shoes, would you be ready to take that plunge with Flynn? Staying with Tarvaris Jackson allows them to keep the door open. If Flynn was available for $5-7M/year, with around $10M guaranteed, the Seahawks might be interested. He'll get way more than that. Seahawks will look elsewhere.

The reports of Chad Henne making a visit is only mildly surprising. He fits the bill as a young enough player who has way more wins and experience than a guy like Flynn, but can be had for a back-ups salary, with low guaranteed money, or even no guaranteed money. There is little downside in bringing in a player like that to compete with Jackson, Portis and whoever the team adds in the draft. Many fans will freak out thinking this is how Carroll and Schneider plan on handling the quarterback position every year. It is not. This is a product of who is available, who they believe in, and confidence that they can compete for the division this season without upgrading the quarterback spot.

Re-signing Red Bryant was good news. I had predicted $9-13M in guaranteed money for him. He ended up with $14.5M. Interest from other teams was high enough to convince the Seattle front office that they would lose him if their offer did not increase. Bryant may have been able to get more money elsewhere, but clearly wanted to return. Both parties gave a little, and both should be pleased with the result. Bryant's health will be the only question about whether this becomes a good deal for the team. If he stays on the field, the Seahawks will be thrilled with this move.

DT Jason Jones is said to be in St. Louis meeting with his former coach Jeff Fisher. Reports have said his next visit will be to Seattle. Logic would lead one to believe Jones' agents are the ones broadcasting the planned Seattle trip so that they have leverage when talking to St. Louis. Jones knows Fisher, knows his system, knows he thrives in it, and knows the Rams have big dollars to spend. The most likely outcome is that Jones signs with St. Louis, but the ideal outcome is that he visits the Seahawks and gives the team an interior pass rush it simply has not had for some time. A few fans have questioned why the Seahawks would be more interested in a guy like Jones with only 15.5 career sacks than a guy like Williams. First, Seattle could sign Jones, a rush linebacker and draft a DE with their 1st round pick for less money than Williams. That group would almost certainly eclipse whatever production Williams could add, and for a longer stretch of time. Second, an interior lineman like Jones is not measured solely by sacks. The most common way a quarterback avoids pressure from edge rushers is to step forward into the pocket. A player that can push that pocket back into the quarterback's face may not get the sack, but can either drive the QB into a teammates arms or force an inaccurate pass. It is far more difficult to find an interior lineman who can collapse the pocket than an edge rusher. Jones would be a fantastic addition to the Seahawks, but there is a big hurdle in St. Louis that must be cleared first.

Seattle also re-signed LB Heath Farwell. He was a great special teams player, and is a good guy to have back on the roster.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Quarterback Solution Yet To Show Itself

John Schneider and Pete Carroll did not address the long-term quarterback situation in their first season. They did not address the long-term quarterback situation in their second season. It is looking more and more like they won't commit to a Quarterback of the Future (QBOTF) this season either, but will instead spend a few non-first round picks on project QBs that are long-shots to become franchise players. This front office has arguably aced almost every other personnel decision they have had to make thus far, but their legacy will still be defined by how they address this one position. It is usually easy to look backwards in situations like this and second-guess the decision makers, "If they had just drafted [Insert Guy Few People Wanted At The Time], we wouldn't be in this mess." Take a look at the choices they could have made. You might be surprised how few options they really had.

Start with the draft. Here are all the QBs drafted in 2010:

RDSEL #PLAYERPOSITIONSCHOOLTEAM
11Sam BradfordQBOklahomaSt. Louis Rams
125Tim TebowQBFloridaDenver Broncos
248Jimmy ClausenQBNotre DameCarolina Panthers
385Colt McCoyQBTexasCleveland Browns
4122Mike KafkaQBNorthwesternPhiladelphia Eagles
5155John SkeltonQBFordhamArizona Cardinals
5168Jonathan CromptonQBTennesseeSan Diego Chargers
6176Rusty SmithQBFlorida AtlanticTennessee Titans
6181Dan LeFevourQBCentral MichiganChicago Bears
6199Joe WebbQBAlabama-BirminghamMinnesota Vikings
6204Tony PikeQBCincinnatiCarolina Panthers
7209Levi BrownQBTroyBuffalo Bills
7239Sean CanfieldQBOregon StateNew Orleans Saints
7250Zac RobinsonQBOklahoma StateNew England Patriots


Source: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

Colt McCoy would be preferable to the third round pick spent on Whitehurst, but not many Seahawks fans would be chomping at the bit to have McCoy as their QBOTF right now. A miss, but not a devastating one. Joe Webb would be a nice guy to have on the roster, especially at a 6th round value, but again, not devastating to miss on him. Time will tell, but that's a pretty crappy looking quarterback class. Even #1 overall pick, Sam Bradford has some questions to answer after a sub-par sophomore season.

Here are the quarterbacks drafted in 2011:

RDSEL #PLAYERPOSITIONSCHOOLTEAM
11Cam NewtonQBAuburnCarolina Panthers
18Jake LockerQBWashingtonTennessee Titans
110Blaine GabbertQBMissouriJacksonville Jaguars
112Christian PonderQBFlorida StateMinnesota Vikings
235Andy DaltonQBTexas ChristianCincinnati Bengals
236Colin KaepernickQBNevada-RenoSan Francisco 49ers
374Ryan MallettQBArkansasNew England Patriots
5135Ricky StanziQBIowaKansas City Chiefs
5152T.J YatesQBNorth CarolinaHouston Texans
5160Nathan EnderleQBIdahoChicago Bears
6180Tyrod TaylorQBVirginia TechBaltimore Ravens
7208Greg McElroyQBAlabamaNew York Jets


Could Seattle have traded up from #25 in the first round to get Jake Locker? Perhaps. Very few teams were convinced he was going to be a successful pro player heading into last year's draft. He showed flashes of a great future in the chances he was given last season. If there is any regret, it is that the Seahawks would have had that #8 pick if they had lost to the Rams and failed to make the playoffs. Five years from now, will you wish you had Locker or the Beast Quake memory? Either way, there is no blame that can be placed on the front office. Seattle could have made an attempt to trade up for Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder. Neither appear worth the capitol it would have taken to move up and nab them. Andy Dalton is possibly the most controversial. He was selected 10 picks after the Seahawks chose RT James Carpenter. Word is, the Seahawks tried desperately to trade back, possibly to select Dalton. They could not find the right deal, and stuck to their guns about drafting talent at the level they saw it. Dalton had a very promising first year, but there aren't many fans up-in-arms that the Seahawks don't have him at the helm. He has the look of a good enough quarterback, but will he ever be great? The jury is out on that one. It's too early to tell on the rest of the players. None of those players stand out a year later as major misses by the Seahawks.


Now, take a look at the free agent QBs available in 2010:


Derek Anderson
R.J. Archer
Richard Bartel
Charlie Batch
John Beck
Kyle Boller
Todd Bouman
Tom Brady
Tom Brandstater
Levi Brown
Mark Brunell
Marc Bulger
Jason Campbell
David Carr
Kellen Clemens
Brodie Croyle
Daunte Culpepper
Nate Davis
Jake Delhomme
A.J. Feeley
Charlie Frye
Jeff Garcia
Bruce Gradkowski
Quinn Gray
Chris Greisen
Rex Grossman
Matt Gutierrez
Gibran Hamdan
Graham Harrell
Tarvaris Jackson
Byron Leftwich
Matt Leinart
J.P. Losman
Josh McCown
Matt Moore
Matt Nichols
Keith Null
Kevin O'Connell
J.T. O'Sullivan
Kyle Orton
Jordan Palmer
Chad Pennington
Patrick Ramsey
Brett Ratliff
Chris Redman
Mike Reilly
Ben Roethlisberger
Jeff Rowe
JaMarcus Russell
D.J. Shockley
Chris Simms
Troy Smith
Jevan Snead
Jim Sorgi
Brian St. Pierre
Mike Teel
Charlie Whitehurst

Any huge misses in that group? No. The 2011 group is not much better.

Derek Anderson
McLeod Bethel-Thompson
Kyle Boller
Rhett Bomar
Todd Bouman
Tom Brandstater
Brian Brohm
Jarrett Brown
Mark Brunell
Marc Bulger
Sean Canfield
Hunter Cantwell
Rudy Carpenter
David Carr
Kellen Clemens
Kerry Collins
Todd Collins
Mike Coughlin
Jonathan Crompton
Eric Crouch
Brodie Croyle
Nate Davis
Jake Delhomme
Dennis Dixon
Trent Edwards
Brett Favre
Charlie Frye
Jeff Garcia
David Garrard
Bruce Gradkowski
Chris Greisen
Rex Grossman
Matt Gutierrez
Matt Gutierrez
Caleb Hanie
Graham Harrell
Matt Hasselbeck
Shaun Hill
Tarvaris Jackson
Dan LeFevour
Matt Leinart
Thaddeus Lewis
J.P. Losman
Peyton Manning
Josh McCown
Luke McCown
Donovan McNabb
Matt Moore
Keith Null
Kevin O'Connell
J.T. O'Sullivan
Dan Orlovsky
Kyle Orton
Jordan Palmer
Chad Pennington
Ryan Perrilloux
Tony Pike
Patrick Ramsey
Brett Ratliff
Scott Riddle
Zac Robinson
Sage Rosenfels
JaMarcus Russell
D.J. Shockley
Chris Simms
Alex Smith
Troy Smith
Jim Sorgi
Brian St. Pierre
Drew Stanton
Tyler Thigpen
Scott Tolzien
Michael Vick
Billy Volek
Seneca Wallace
Adam Weber
Charlie Whitehurst
Drew Willy
John Parker Wilson
Vince Young

Note that many of these players were not unrestricted free agents, but even if they were, how many do you wish the Seahawks future was tied to? 

Carroll and Schneider deserve a ton of scrutiny for how they are handling the QB situation. They have not invested in young players at the position outside of Josh Portis. If he hits, it won't be because they knew he could be the franchise quarterback. It will be lucky. If they knew he could be a great player, they would have drafted him. A number of factors have contributed to the situation the Seahawks now find themselves in relative to this all-important position, most have been out of the team's control. The patience for explanations like that will run extremely thin this year. You cannot win the raffle if you do not buy a ticket. Schneider needs to buy a few tickets this year. Settling for mediocrity will not fly much longer.