Something incredibly rare is happening in Seattle this year. The Seahawks are conducting a broad and thorough search for a new head coach. How rare is that? Pete Carroll has been the coach for 14 years. He was selected without a broad search. The prior coach was Jim Mora Jr. He was groomed as part of Mike Holmgren’s staff and was hired without a broad search. Holmgren was the coach for the prior 10 years, and he too, was not part of a broad search. You would really need to go back to Dennis Erickson to find a time there was something approximating a broader search. Even that is somewhat debatable. Erickson was hired to replace Tom Flores in 1995, almost 30 years ago. The search is broad because John Schneider has, so far, not taken the predictable route of hiring the guy he knows best.
It is normal for relationships to play a massive role in determining these types of decisions. Everyone immediately jumped to the conclusion that Schneider would hire someone who he knows well, and Dan Quinn was the most common name thrown around. After a pratfall in the playoffs, fan sentiment has turned strongly against Quinn as an option. While Quinn is not my top choice, I spend more time wondering if Seattle will regret passing on him than fretting about him being selected. He has a stronger resume than most fans realize or acknowledge. Let’s take a look at his strengths and some of the most common reasons fans give for not wanting him here.
Nobody has hired a better staff
As excited as I am about the potential of Mike Macdonald as a candidate, there are real questions about who he would bring aboard to fill out his staff given his short tenure in the league and heavy overlap with Jim Harbaugh, who will also be filling out a staff.
Pete Carroll was here for 14 years and hired tons of coordinators and assistants during that time. His track record was pretty awful. None of his offensive coordinators (OCs) went on to become head coaches (HCs). The only defensive coordinators (DCs) who went on to become head coaches were Gus Bradley and Quinn, who both came to Seattle as part Mora Jr.’s staff. Robert Saleh and Dave Canales are the only other guys on the staff who went on to be HCs.
Quinn assembled more coaching talent in his first season as a HC than Carroll did in his 14 years combined. That’s not just about Carroll. The crew Quinn pulled together was one of the best in the NFL over the last decade.
His first hire was Kyle Shanahan as OC. It seems silly now, but Shanahan was not the widely recognized offensive genius then that he is now. He had been let go in Cleveland after the offense finished 23th in the NFL, and there was friction. Opposing fans were not all that upset about him coming to Atlanta:
But the other hires don’t really sound as an upgrade for the Falcons. Kyle Shanahan has at best had an up-and-down career as offensive coordinator, producing two middling offenses with the Texans and Matt Schaub, one solid year of offense with Washington in RG3’s one healthy season and…well, that’s it basically. Of course, he’ll have Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to help him out, so he won’t have to be a genius to get some good production.
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It says a lot that Quinn and Shanahan had mutual interest to work together. Quinn studied opposing offenses for years, and knew what Shanahan had to offer. Seeing that kind of talent when other franchises and coaches did not is impressive. It is also difficult to repeat. If that was the only good hire, it might be tough to credit Quinn for his coaching eye. It was not.
He brought in Raheem Morris as the assistant HC. Also on that staff: Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel. All three of those guys are head coaches in this league. That was not all.
Mike LaFleur, Jeff Ulbrich, and Marquand Manuel were also on the staff. Each of them are either current or former DCs. Manuel is being interviewed for the Jags DC role, so may be a DC again.
The offensive coaches came with Shanahan. One could argue Quinn does not get credit for those hires. That is the wrong way to look at it. Quinn could have handled filling out the coaching staff much differently. Many HCs do not hand over one side of the ball to someone on their staff. Many are very heavy-handed in how staffs get filled out. Quinn had decisions to make, and the fact that he trusted Shanahan to bring his boys along speaks highly of Quinn, not the opposite.
What Quinn demonstrated was that he has a good eye for coaching talent on both sides of the ball. He not only recognizes good tacticians, but he recognizes good leaders.
Defensive line specialist
Quinn was a perfect pairing with Carroll, in part, because he specializes in the defensive line where Carroll specialized in the secondary. Bradley was a secondary guy as well, and the defense was more well rounded when Quinn was on staff.
It was Quinn who lobbied to sign Michael Bennett as an undrafted free agent in 2009. Bennett admitted it was Quinn who convinced him to come back in 2013. It was Quinn who took underperforming defensive tackle Red Bryant and convinced Carroll to let him shift outside to 5-technique as a 300+ pound defensive end, which was unheard of in a 4-3 alignment. It was Quinn who got the best years out of Chris Clemons. He did the same for Raheem Brock, Colin Cole, Clinton McDonald, Tony McDaniel, and others.
He has been a defensive line coach since 1994. We know his Seattle time, but this is a guy who worked wonders with Julian Peterson and Andre Carter in San Francisco. He coached Bryant Young, Jason Taylor, Vonnie Holliday, and Shaun Ellis at various stops. He influenced Atlanta drafting Grady Jarrett and Dallas drafting Micah Parsons. Parsons joked that if Quinn left, he may follow him.
If you look at the biggest issue on the Seahawks defense for years, it has been the talent and performance of the defensive line. There are not many, if any, coaches who have a better track record for improving defensive line play than Quinn.
But let’s talk about the most common concerns about Quinn taking over this job.
Quinn is just more Pete Carroll
There is a portion of the Seahawks fan base who believes Quinn is just Carroll all over again. Ironically, some of the folks raising this concern are people who did not want Carroll let go in the first place. Their perspective is, “If you wanted more Carroll, why didn’t you just keep him?” The other portion of fans who have this perspective were desperate for change from Carroll and see Quinn as too similar.
This is a case of Seahawks fans having a myopic perspective, based largely on what they know of Quinn’s time with the Seahawks.
There is no doubt some influence on Quinn from Carroll and his time in Seattle, but that represents a fraction of his time as a coach. Quinn’s personality is quite different from Carroll.
He is serious and intense. It is no surprise that Nick Saban and Dom Capers brought him aboard as part of their staff in Miami, or that Mora Jr. favored him as well. Albert Breer brought this up on a recent interview with Dave “Softy” Mahler.
Quinn is a really intriguing marriage of old school football toughness/intensity with positive leadership preached by Carroll.
His players love him and play hard for him, but he’s more than just a “rah rah” guy.
“That’s like my OG, for real. He means a lot to me, not only cause, it’s not just about football,” Parsons said. “I think Q, we were talking today, and I was like, ‘Could you do the college thing?’ Cause of [Nick] Saban [retiring] and all them. And he was like, ‘Yeah.’ And I was like, ‘Cause you’re just such a great mentor.’
“I think he does a great job finding ways for you to love the game, finding ways to go around the game. It doesn’t always have to be hard-nosed, ‘I’m the coach.’ I think it’s more of a friendship. We go through what I don’t like, what I do like. He doesn’t just treat me like a player, he treats me almost like a friend. He’s always there when I need him and we’re not afraid to have those hard conversations, either it’s father to son or player to coach, we have them no matter what.”
He is a very different person than Carroll, while having the EQ necessary to relate to today’s players.
He has struggled against Shanahan offenses
This is one of the loudest complaints, and certainly has some validity. There was a very good thread today that went into some of the outcomes.
Let’s look at his games against the Shanahan tree over the last few years:
- 2023 Season
- vs GB (playoffs) 48 points, 415 yards
- vs MIA 22 points, 375 yards
- vs SF 42 points, 421 yards
- 2022 Season
- vs SF (playoffs) 19 points, 312 yards
- vs GB 31 points, 415 yards
- 2021 Season
- vs SF (playoffs) 23 points, 341 yards
There are some stinkers in there for sure. It is worth noting that Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense made things quite tough on their defense in most/all of these games. Prescott threw two picks against the Packers, one for a touchdown and another that gave them the ball at the 19-yard line.
Prescott threw three picks against the 49ers and they had a fumble as well, for four total turnovers.
In the game against the Packers last season, Prescott threw two picks. Those are the three worst performances, and they were definitely not good, but the offense played a large role in creating those outcomes.
The two playoff performances against Shanahan are actually pretty darn good. Holding that offense to 19 and 23 points is impressive. Consider that Prescott threw two interceptions in the 19 point game and another in the 23 point game. The Cowboys offense was barely able to muster 300 yards in either game.
The 22 points allowed versus Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins this year is not awful either.
There are definitely some problematic games in there, but I would argue there are some pretty good ones as well. From there, I would ask which defensive coaches have consistently excelled against those offenses. I doubt anyone has. Mike Macdonald is a favorite of mine for the Seahawks role, in part, because he has had such success this year against a variety of offenses. But, even there, I have to admit the sample size is very small.
The 19 points Quinn’s team held San Francisco to in the playoffs last year was the lowest of any team after Brock Purdy took over (ignoring the Philly game when he left injured).
There is another offensive coach with a lot of acclaim in the NFC West who nobody talks about relative to Quinn. Sean McVay and his coaching tree is worth a look as well.
- 2023
- vs Rams 20 points, 280 yards
- vs Seahawks 35 points, 406 yards
- 2022
- vs Rams 10 points, 323 yards
- vs Bengals 17 points, 254 yards
- vs Vikings 3 points, 183 yards
That is a pretty encouraging track record against another guy Seattle needs to contend with for the foreseeable future.
When looking at the combined picture, it seems the narrative about Quinn is at least incomplete, if not misleading.
There is no doubt this would be the part of the vetting process that would require the most convincing. The performance against the Packers in the playoffs was awful.
Quinn has already demonstrated the ability to adapt his scheme and approach over time. Maybe he would combine his excellent track record for hiring staff with what he knows about these schemes and what has failed and further refine his approach. There may be nobody who knows Shanahan and his scheme better than Quinn. Pretty much every coach and team has struggled to slow them down. Quinn has had more success doing so than the current chatter admits.
He blew the Super Bowl against New England
There may never be another team to lose a 25 point lead in the 3rd quarter of the Super Bowl. It was an atrocious loss. Ultimately, the head coach has to take responsibility for that. There are a few parts of that story that nobody talks about and are worthy of at least mentioning.
First, Quinn took the Falcons to the Super Bowl. I hear people say that he already had Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Well, Atlanta had those players prior to Quinn’s arrival and went 6-10 the year before and 4-12 the year before that. Atlanta is not a particularly successful franchise. They had only been to one other Super Bowl in the entire history of the franchise. Quinn took them there in his second year as a head coach.
Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Mike Shanahan, and many others did not reach the Super Bowl in their first gig as a head coach. Those who do get there rarely do it so fast.
Second, while everyone remembers the Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead, few folks give credit for a first time head coach in his first time leading a team into a Super Bowl, getting his team ready to take a 28-3 lead over the greatest player of all-time in Tom Brady and the greatest coach of all-time in Bill Belichick. Sean McVay did not do that. Andy Reid did not do that.
Third, while everyone slobbers all over Kyle Shanahan, they seem to absolve him of far too much of the responsibility for the loss. There were a number of questionable decisions from Shanahan as that game fell into chaos. He largely stopped running the ball despite a nearly 6 yard per carry average, which stopped the clock as passes fell incomplete. Up 28-12 with just 8 minutes left in the game, he infamously called a pass on a 3rd and 1 that resulted in a strip sack recovered by New England at the Falcons 25-yard line. Still up 28-20 with the ball at the Patriots 23-yard line with under 4 minutes to go, Shanahan called another pass that resulted in a sack and eventually knocked them out of field goal range when simply running and kicking the field goal likely would have ended the game.
Add to that, Shanahan returned to the Super Bowl as a HC and blew another game where he had a 96% win probability with 7 minutes left in the fourth, leading 20-10. While Quinn certainly deserves blame for what happened, Shanahan is widely considered one of the best coaches in football and has blown multiple Super Bowls, including the one in Atlanta.
Quinn strikes me as a guy who learned from that first experience and will be better for it.
I just want new and different and young!
I get it. This is where I am as well. I like guys like Ben Johnson and Mike Macdonald and Bobby Slowik because we do not really know how they will do as a head coach. They bring upside potential specifically because we do not have a track record as a head coach to reference. Admittedly, that also means they could represent much larger risks.
While the young guns are certainly flashy and fun, they also have not won that many rings. McVay has one. Mostly, though, you are looking at the old guard of Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians, Pete Carroll, and Tom Coughlin who has taking home trophies.
There is something to be said for getting an experienced coach on the rebound who has learned critical lessons.
We should hire an offensive coordinator since they always get hired away
I have fallen for this narrative as well. It was interesting, though, to look at who has been hired over the last two years.
There have actually been more defensive coaches hired over that time than offensive coaches. Shanahan has lost his defensive coordinators multiple times in the past few years with Saleh and DeMeco Ryans. Macdonald is a scorching hot candidate. The reality is that great assistant coaches are going to be hired away on either side of the ball.
What I think matters more than offensive or defensive is whether the head coach has demonstrated a strong enough tactical advantage on one side of the ball that they can either hand over the other side to a strong assistant or benefit from quality talent on that side. Belichick had Brady. Mike Holmgren had Fritz Shurmur. Carroll had Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch.
Someone like Quinn has already demonstrated that he can recruit top shelf coaching talent on the other side of the ball. Seattle has some good talent on the offensive side. The defense is in far worse shape.
The team needs to improve across the board. It is not obvious that an offensive coach is going to be more impactful than a defensive coach.
If you hire on offense, you need the guy to not only be an elite play caller, but also be able to identify someone who can build a great defense. Geno Smith is good, but he is not in the elite class of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. His play caller will need to elevate him and groom his replacement. Mike McDaniel is as exciting a young offensive coach as there is in this league, and he still has not been able to create an offense that is good enough to carry his team against quality competition or assemble a defense needed to compete. Are we sure Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik are even at McDaniel’s level, let alone above their level?
A defensive coach will need to bring in a good scheme, be a quality play caller, and build a complete defense that needs the most help in the front seven. He will also need to hire an offensive mind who can elevate the offense.
Neither path is easy or certain. I could make the case that Quinn has a better resume to indicate he could accomplish the defensive path than anyone on the offensive side. Johnson’s biggest positive is what he has done with Jared Goff and the Lions offense. While good, I do not think anyone could really compare it to what Shanahan or McVay have done.
It sounds like you want Quinn to get the job
Truthfully, I would prefer Johnson, Macdonald, or Slowik. I would rather see the Seahawks roll the dice on the unknown and possibly hit the lottery. The state of the roster and the cap has Seattle in the messy middle of the NFL. They will need not only outstanding coaching, but a lot of luck to break out of this and into true contender status.
Where I seem to differ from many Seahawks fans is that I would be excited about Quinn taking the reins if that is how things shake out. I believe there is an overreaction to his most recent game and a lot of superficial narratives out there about him. There are legitimate reasons to consider him the best candidate out there. Should Schneider make the call to partner with him, my hope is that Seahawks fans see the upside of that outcome.