Monday, April 11, 2011

Mock The Draft: Seahawks Style

Mock drafts flood the InterWeb this time of year. Everyone who has a computer can proclaim who is going to get picked by which team without anything to support their assertion beyond a gut feeling. The reason betting on draft choices has not taken off the way betting on, say, the NCAA Tournament is largely because nobody really thinks they can be more than 10-15% accurate in forecasting team choices. Not only do few analysts have any real insight into which players teams are targeting, the teams themselves have no idea who they will pick until the teams in front of them have removed players from the board. This year should see a different level of trading as no players can be moved unless a CBA is in place. Where someone might be dealing their pick for Kevin Kolb in a normal off-season, that likely won't happen this year. Teams can trade for additional draft choices, and it is possible we will see more of that than normal. This may be the only sure way to add talent this off-season, so a pile of draft picks becomes even more valuable than normal. It is also the first time the draft will occur before free agency, which could drive teams to focus on need (versus the famous "best player available") more than you might see in the past.

I don't do mock drafts. This year, however, I've decided to "mock" drafts. You won't find analysis of what every team might do. You will find things that Seahawks fans should care about, and perhaps a few grins along the way. No promises on that, though.




Hopefully A QB
We stomped you in 2005. You suck now. This is a tough league. Seahawks fans should hope the Panthers take a QB, either Newton or Gabbert to reduce the chances of either falling to Arizona or SF.


Fuck You
I hate this franchise, and all the players that played for it. I hope they pull a Mike Tice and forget to put their pick in.

Pulling For Gabbert
Buffalo is a blue-collar town with some of the ugliest people in the US and a tortured sports history rivaling Seattle. If you are not pulling for this franchise to succeed, there is something wrong with you. The city lives and dies with the Bills, and I'm hoping they get the next great QB with this pick. Newton would be a mismatch with his desire to be bigger than the team, but Gabbert could be great. If Newton and Gabbert go #1 and #3, the best bet QBs will be off the board for our division rivals.

Zzzzzz....
Blah blah blah...Carson Palmer. Blah blah blah...irrelevant franchise.

A Punter Would Be Nice
The Cardinals still seem like a QB away from being at least a division contender, if not a legitimate playoff team. Drafting a QB here would mean they are thinking about re-building. Larry Fitzgerald is in his prime. Darnell Dockett, Adrian Wilson and others are quickly moving past their primes. The window to produce a good team with the current talent is closing quickly. Trading for a veteran QB or signing one would make far more sense. That said, my worst nightmare would be a division with Sam Bradford in STL, and two young stud QBs on the other two teams. It's unlikely, but possible, that Newton and Gabbert could fall. More likely is the Cardinals reload on defense. Just pray it's not a Patrick Willis-level selection.

Not A QB...Probably
Mike Holmgren sounds like he has settled on Colt McCoy as his QB of the future. The team has obvious needs elsewhere, so the logical choice would be to start addressing those. Cleveland is another franchise that is easy to root for. Let's hope they pick whoever the 49ers really wanted.

Andrew Luck
Oops, sorry Jimmy! No luck to save you. The 49ers are unfortunately well-positioned to take whatever great player falls through the cracks. They would love to have Newton or Gabbert, but that only happens if they move up. I could see that, but only if those guys last past Buffalo. This team is a good young QB away from competing for years to come. A veteran might make some sense, but I'd go the younger route if I was running the team. Why put a time limit on your window? If there is another prospect the team likes at QB, trading back isn't out of the question either. Andy Dalton would be a good fit for this team late in the first or early in the second. They may choose to get the best player available here, and take whichever QB falls to them in the second among Mallett, Locker, and Dalton.

Don't Care
You lose your franchise QB and your coach? The idea is to pick at least one side in that argument so you don't completely screw yourself. Rumors are out there of possible interest in Jake Locker, but it would be a joke to pick him this high. They might be thinking second round there.

Don't Care
Fuck you Jerry Jones, and this lockout you were a huge part of creating.

Locker? Really?
Even now, some people have the Redskins drafting Locker this high. Shanahan supposedly loves the guy. I love him too, but he's a huge risk as an NFL QB, and would be foolish selection here. On the other hand, Shanahan could be a great guy to squeeze the best out of Locker. This choice will have impact no matter what. Either a QB gets chosen above his value and starts sending more talented players down the board, or there will be a glut of QBs to choose from at the end of the round. I wouldn't rule out trading back into the early 20s to draft Locker and adding more draft picks along the way.

Don't Care
Really don't care.

QB?
Another pivotal selection. The Vikings are more like the Cardinals than the 49ers. They are better off with a veteran QB that can help them compete now. However, they might fall in love with a young QB and decide to take him here.

Don't Care
Yawn.

Wide Receiver
It's no surprise that surrounding Bradford with playmakers is the top priority. They could draft for pure value, but there are some impressive young receivers in the draft. I won't be shocked if the team reaches for WR that people don't have a first-round grade on like Titus Young, Leonard Hankerson or someone else.

-- Do Your Errands
You could argue there are some pivotal selections from the Seahawks perspective in this bunch, but no more so than anywhere else in the first round. Either there will be a run on offensive lineman or defensive lineman. A player like Mike Pouncey may fall through the cracks, or not. A player like DT Phil Taylor may fall to the Seahawks, or not. This time will simply be a matter of the Seahawks crossing guys off their board until it's their turn to select.

Defensive Lineman, Offensive Lineman, QB, or...
Unless there is a player the team loves at this spot, a guy who they have graded in the Top 12, this screams for trading back. The 25th pick in the draft is worth 720 value points. That's the general system teams use to assess the value of pick in trades. You could trade that pick for a top 5 pick in the 2nd round AND a 3rd round pick for roughly equivalent value. This team needs to fill a lot of holes, and absolutely must have a 3rd round pick this year. It will be controversial, but that's what I would do.


1 comment :

Jeff said...

Glad to see another HB post. This off season sucks...i want the draft to bring some excitement

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