Election season is over, but there is an approval poll that still caught my attention. I occasionally ask people on Twitter to vote on the job performance of the three most important figures in the football organization: the general manager, the head coach, and the quarterback. The results are meant to be more directionally interesting than scientifically valid. This was particularly useful during the “Let Russ Cook” era where the fan base was almost in a civil war split between Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson. I posed these three separate approval polls for the first time during the week before the 49ers game. Mike Macdonald did remarkably well, garnering an 82.3% approval rating on 2,725 votes. Geno Smith was overwhelmingly positive as well, with 73.4% approving of his job performance (2,505 votes) despite throwing three picks in the most recent game. The ire of frustrated Seahawks fans had to be directed somewhere, and John Schneider was the guy who took the heat. His approval rating sat at just 31.1% (2,143 votes), leaving 68.9% of fans unhappy with his work. This provided the perfect opportunity to make the clearly unpopular case that Schneider deserves more credit than most fans seem to think he deserves.
Understanding the displeasure
The degree of support for Macdonald and Smith was surprising given the struggles of the team. The amount of discontent around Schneider was not. Connor Williams had retired the day before the poll was taken. Tyrel Dodson had been waived a few days earlier. Numerous fans and analysts took a look at the Seahawks free agent moves this offseason and rightly pointed out how little return the team had received on their investment.
Whether or not a player constitutes a “good return” is subjective. Some might quibble with designating Johnathan Hankins and K’Von Wallace as good returns given they are not starters or impact players. I see $2M for Hankins, $1.5M for Wallace, and think the Seahawks have received a lot of value for their money. Laken Tomlinson is probably the most controversial on this list. I see a player who is in the top half of the league at a very weak position, and has started every game for $1.2M.
Many would say you get what you pay for, and criticize Schneider for not investing more in the interior offensive line when teams like the Panthers and Rams spent big money at the position. Critics would also point out that the team has repeatedly tried cheap and short-term solutions on the interior of the line and robbed the team of both quality players and continuity.
The repeated swings and missed on the line for years have left fans with little patience. That combined with two more acute issues to really amp up frustration.
First, fans had heard how important the linebacker position was for the Macdonald defense, and to sign two players to 1-year contracts who subsequently were off the team before the season ended, led people to believe Schneider was not giving Macdonald what he needed to run his defense. Second, opportunity cost came up as a problem for one of the only times during Schneider’s tenure.
Unlike 2023, when nobody was losing sleep over letting players like Travis Homer, L.J. Collier, and Shelby Harris go, a lot of folks were unsure of the decision to pass on Jordyn Brooks and Damien Lewis from the jump. To then struggle at those very positions amplified the discontent.
It can be fun to play Devil’s Advocate when there is such a one-sided conversation going on about a person. That would imply that I am one of the 69% who do not approve of his work. Instead, I will explain why I remain in the minority who believe he is doing a good job, while acknowledging some of the flaws in his process.
Draft king
Schneider burst onto the scene as a GM with three of the best drafts in the history of the NFL. The team went from old and untalented to the youngest Super Bowl champion in four years. There have been some lean draft years since that time. Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Frank Clark stand out as big wins. Not many others played well enough to be recalled by most fans.
The last three drafts have rekindled Schneider’s reputation as an expert talent evaluator.
Fourteen of the Seahawks 22 starters against the 49ers were members of the last three draft classes. Being a starter does not necessarily mean you are a good player. Anthony Bradford, for example, has struggled mightily at right guard but remains the starter. A better barometer is whether you would want to re-sign that player to a second contract.
It is hard to have a solid perspective on whether you will want to re-sign a player in his first or second season. Tyrice Knight played an excellent game against SF, but must sustain that level of play to earn a second contract here. Sataoa Laumea and Christian Haynes are currently backups, but they may develop in future seasons into starters you want back.
The 2022 class provides more clarity. Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, Kenneth Walker III, and Riq Woolen are among the best players drafted at their respective positions in the last three years. Abe Lucas is right there with them if he can stay healthy. That you could exit a single draft with bookend tackles, a high potential edge rusher, and a feature back is something any GM should be lauded for. Add in the recent development of Coby Bryant who looks like a starting caliber safety, and this is a home run draft class.
Schneider followed that up with a 2023 class that included a Pro Bowler at CB in Devon Witherspoon, a future Pro Bowler in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and a player with Pro Bowl potential in Derick Hall. Cornerback, wide receiver, and edge rusher are three of the highest paid positions in the game. These were not just good players. They were good players at high value positions. The recent development of Olu Oluwatimi could send this draft even higher. Zach Charbonnet was a very questionable decision in the second round who is not working out so far. Bradford, Cameron Young, and Mike Morris are teetering toward disappointments. Jerrick Reed has the potential to be a sleeper as he gets more time on the field.
This latest class in 2024 needs a lot more time. Byron Murphy Jr., though, has already demonstrated enough talent as a 22-year-old rookie at one of the priciest positions on the field that it is clear he will be a player you want to keep around. Knight looks like a plus starter. This group will need at least one of the offensive linemen to hit in order for it to rise from good-to-great.
Some would be surprised by just how good these draft classes have performed. Walker has more rushing yards (2,407) and more touchdowns (26) than any player drafted in the last three years.
Smith-Njigba has the 3rd-most receptions of players from his draft class (123), behind only Puka Nacua (133) and Zay Flowers (129). His 1,306 receiving yards rank above the totals of Jordan Addison, Sam LaPorta, Rashee Rice, and Tank Dell. He may overtake everyone by the time this season ends, and I would not bet against him becoming the best receiver in his class over the course of his career.
Mafe ranks 6th in sacks (16.0) from his class, with four of the five ahead of him all being 1st round picks. Travon Walker (21.0) and Aidan Hutchinson (28.5) were the first and second overall selections.
Woolen ranks 2nd among CBs in interceptions (10). He ranks 4th in passes defensed, while Witherspoon already has climbed to 12th despite playing one less season. He ranks second in his draft class.
Cross is the 2nd-highest graded offensive linemen (83.5) in any of the last three drafts by PFF. Oluwatimi ranks 8th and Lucas 11th among all linemen taken in the last three years. Granted, they have started just one game this season, but you could argue they should get better, not worse. Imagine how the discourse would change if Schneider drafted 3 of the top 11 offensive linemen in the past three drafts.
A franchise left tackle, along with two quality starters on the OL, two edge rushers who your head coach believes have All-Pro potential, two CBs who have already made Pro Bowls, a RB that leads all players in rushing yards and touchdowns, and a WR who looks to be one of the best to be drafted over this timeframe. That is a heck of a haul in three drafts, and there could be more upside coming.
I will always most heavily weight draft quality when evaluating a GM, and Schneider has done excellent work of late even if I have some quibbles with some of the choices.
Coaching hire
People seem to forget that Schneider made his first coaching hire this past offseason. Macdonald was his choice. That, alone, makes it a little hard to square Macdonald having such an overwhelming approval rating while the guy who hired him is being scorned.
Schneider demonstrated patience and guts to wait for the opportunity to hire Macdonald to even present itself. Many lesser GMs would have flinched and grabbed one of the other candidates like Mike Kafka or Patrick Graham. Dan Quinn might have been a great choice, but the fan base would have been highly skeptical of a guy who felt like more of the same Pete Carroll approach that had not been working.
Macdonald only became an option after the Ravens lost in the conference championship. Had they won, it might have been tough for Schneider to wait all the way until after the Super Bowl to make the decision. He seemed intent on waiting for Macdonald either way.
There was no assistant coach who was a hotter commodity. Ben Johnson was in the vicinity, but even he had not accomplished what Macdonald had done in his two years as coordinator. The number one defense in football had shown the ability to defend every great offensive coordinator and almost every great quarterback. Even Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes were shutout in the second half of the championship game. Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy, Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa, Bobby Slowik and C.J. Stroud, Johnson and Jared Goff, had all struggled against Macdonald.
Seahawks fans often forget how hard it is to get players or coaches to consider signing here, especially for those from the east coast. It is known as rainy and feels like the other side of the world. Macdonald admitted he had some hesitations about it.
The reason Macdonald ultimately chose to make the leap was because of his instant chemistry with Schneider and the sparkling things people around the league had told him about what would be his new boss.
It is safe to say that if there was no Schneider in Seattle, there would be no Macdonald either.
Calibration in progress
A lot of the free agent moves this offseason did not work out, as detailed above. One explanation for that is that Schneider did a bad job on his talent evaluation. I see a different reason.
Macdonald was hired later than any coach in the NFL this past year. He also was the youngest head coach with the smallest network of coaching connections to assemble his staff. That meant that Schneider leaned in to help Macdonald hire his coordinators and then Macdonald had to run through more interviews to fill out the rest of the staff. All of that took time.
Meanwhile, the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine were not waiting for anyone. The personnel department had to press ahead on talent evaluations even before knowing which coaches would be in place for what position groups. Macdonald was hired January 31st. Ryan Grubb and Aden Durde were hired February 13th. Free agency opened March 13th.
Schneider and the personnel department had to make some educated guesses about who would be the best fits. Choosing a college offensive coordinator and offensive line coach in Grubb and Scott Huff meant there was also less experience playing against or with some of the free agents. Durde had just a little bit more. More experienced coordinators would have likely had a stronger perspective on which veterans to bring in.
They had a little more time to prep for the draft, but even that was probably more heavily weighted toward the personnel department making decisions than it will be in future years when the coaching staff and personnel department have more time to collaborate.
The best indication of this is the moves that have been made since the start of the season. It almost feels like offseason 1.5 for this group. Every single move has made the team better:
- Trade for Roy Robertson-Harris
- Trade for Ernest Jones IV
- Waive Tyrel Dodson to start Tyrice Knight
- Give Josh Jobe starter snaps
- Give Coby Bryant starter snaps
Some will hammer Schneider for signing two starting linebackers who are no longer on the team and letting Jordyn Brooks leave for Miami. I see a GM who gave his coach a chance to evaluate players at a key position in his defense before committing and now has what could be a terrific starting duo for years to come. It would have been far more damaging had Schneider signed the wrong player to a long-term deal to run the middle of this defense.
Robertson-Harris was an underrated move that has dramatically increased the physicality of the defense and gave the coaches a player who can impact the run game like nobody else on the roster.
Jobe was signed to the practice squad in August, and is looking like a steal at corner.
This feels like a GM and coaching staff who are getting aligned on what is needed to build the team they are envisioning. Schneider deserves credit for learning, adapting, and avoiding the sunk cost fallacy. There are plenty of GMs who have egos that would stand in the way of jettisoning players they signed, even if it would make the team better.
Over-drafted and overpaid
Perhaps the most controversial thing Schneider has done or said was make the statement that interior offensive linemen are “over-drafted and overpaid.” He made these comments during a time in the offseason when fans and media were questioning the team’s approach to fixing a persistently problematic offensive line.
The words reverberated through Twitter and talk radio, and remain a trigger for many fans. Fans wanted to understand how the line was going to be improved. They were seeing other teams, like the Rams, spending huge amounts of free agent dollars on guards and investing a second round pick on another interior linemen.
Seattle was bargain shopping in free agency while seemingly relying on the development of a 5th round pick at center. The comments from Schneider came across as insulting to fans, as if they were wrong to advocate for larger investment on the interior and maybe even should be thankful that they had a GM who was wise enough to not waste resources there. You could get away with a bold proclamation like that if your bargain-shopping approach worked. The fact that the Seahawks had arguably the worst interior offensive line in the NFL through nine weeks made Schneider look out of touch and prideful.
As is often the case with these sound bite controversies, there is more nuance than one sentence can convey.
My understanding is the team does not think interior offensive linemen are not valuable. They believe that there is such a short supply of quality players at those positions, that the prices have skyrocketed. This means that you are almost certain to be paying a premium for a player who you know is not great. That is a risky and questionable process.
The salary cap forces all teams to prioritize where they spend their money. Seattle wants to do their best to spend their dollars on good players at the most valuable positions. Interior offensive line is a valuable position, but few would argue it is as valuable as offensive tackle or edge rusher or even defensive tackle.
Too many people say the Seahawks should have re-signed Damien Lewis instead of Laken Tomlinson. That was never the choice. It might have been Lewis versus Leonard Williams or saving space for Cross and Lucas extensions. Spending less on left guard leaves money to allocate to higher value positions.
Lewis costs $13.3M per year, and $53M over the life of the deal. Tomlinson cost $1.2M total. The only Seahawks free agent contract in the Lewis range is Williams at $21.5M per year, and $64.5M over the full deal. You can debate whether the team would be better off allocating the cap and cash to Lewis instead of Williams. Personally, I see Williams as a significantly better player at a more valuable position. That is likely how the Seahawks saw it as well.
I still believe Schneider needs to revisit his perspective on how to assemble a great offensive line in this new world of very short talent supply. I would like to see him pursue higher floor veterans like Kevin Zeitler ($6M APY), John Simpson ($6M APY), and even Evan Brown ($2.4M APY).
The Connor Williams signing had the potential to be a game-changing addition. I see that move as encouraging, even if it did not work out.
I also believe he needs to bump up the priority of that position group over some others like tight end, running back, and safety.
Schneider has proven he is not too proud to revisit perspectives on where to draft certain positions. He had never drafted a cornerback, wide receiver, or defensive tackle in the first round before doing so the last two drafts. The team knows that right guard is a significant weakness. It would not surprise me if Schneider was willing to spend higher draft capital to solidify that spot even while hoping Haynes and Laumea develop.
Had Haynes seized the starting role this season or Bradford made a second-year leap, there would be far less people criticizing the process. That neither did says something about the players and may also be residue from the personnel and coaching staff not being completely in sync in their first offseason together.
Forgotten wins
Recency bias has a lot of people forgetting some of the big decisions Schneider has made over the past few years. The Russell Wilson trade will go down as one of the best trades in NFL history.
There were a lot of fans and analysts who were panning the move when it was made. Seattle wound up with:
- Charles Cross
- Boye Mafe
- Tyreke Smith
- Devon Witherspoon
- Derick Hall
- Noah Fant
- Lots of cap room
It took guts to make that move. There are not many GMs who would have the courage to put their reputations on the line by trading away a QB many believed was headed to the Hall of Fame. Schneider had wanted to make the move even earlier, but was nixed by Carroll. This team would be in far worse shape had they hung onto Wilson for even one more year.
The Geno Smith free agent contract is arguably the best free agent signing in the NFL over the past few seasons and might be the best non-rookie QB contract in the game. Smith has vastly outperformed his contract value at the most important position on the field. You need look no further than the New York Giants, who waived the quarterback, Daniel Jones, who they signed that same offseason to a deal worth $15M more per season than what Seattle gave Smith.
Making the call to release Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs and eat their remaining contracts was the right thing to do for the organization even if it was not the best look for Schneider. He chose doing what was best for this new regime to start fresh instead of trying to save face by hoping those coaches would make his sunk cost contracts look better by eliciting better performances from aging players.
Julian Love has been a great free agent find. Jarran Reed looked washed up and has become a crucial leader in the locker room, a mentor for Murphy, and is tied with Williams for pressures along the interior line. Uchenna Nwosu has had a tough go with injuries, but was a great find in free agency. It would not surprise me if Jenkins becomes a player people see as a positive signing as well now that he is healed and the front seven is playing much better football. The trade for Sam Howell also has upside and looks wise given the rookie QBs Seattle would have had an opportunity to pick.
Tough job
No person is second-guessed more in the NFL than the GM. Referees and offensive coordinators may disagree. Every free agent you sign, every draft pick you make, will be judged not only by the performance of the player you added, but by the opportunity cost of the player you could have had.
It is impossible to know how often personnel decisions are made purely based on the GMs evaluation versus a consensus driven between coaches and the front office. Every GM can probably point to players they wanted to draft or sign that a coach nixed.
Just a few years ago, Philadelphia fans hated Howie Roseman because he could not draft a skill player to save his life. Now, he’s in the conversation for best GM in the game.
Schneider deserved to be on the hot seat a few years back for the lack of talent acquired via the draft from 2017-2021. He has adjusted his approach and had three consecutive quality drafts, while also making some courageous moves that have paid off handsomely.
It makes sense to be frustrated with the state of the Seahawks offensive line, but we also could be on the brink of a completely different outlook if Lucas and Oluwatimi build on their first game. Schneider needs to prove once again he can adapt and supply his coaches with the talent they need to make the line a strength instead of a constant Achilles heel.
While most do not currently approve of his performance at the moment, I see a lot more good than bad the last three years and a narrowing list of gaps to fill. His hire of Macdonald may wind up being his best move of all. If the moves they have made during the season are any indication of the leaps that can be made from that budding partnership, Seahawks fans will soon be flipping their votes and leaping on game days.