Seattle is one of the last teams to begin their 2022 NFL season. Yet, most the of the league, and many fans in the Pacific Northwest, have already decided this team is going to be awful. There are valid reasons for the pessimism. Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner were the most proven stars on the roster and the last vestiges of the Super Bowl champions, and both are gone. Seattle lost a bunch of games last year with those two, and has only been on the periphery of contention for years. The idea that this team could be better than one quarterbacked by Wilson is far-fetched. The idea that they could beat him and his new Bronco teammates tonight in Lumen Field is not.
There are a wealth of unknowns about this Seahawks team. Most are assuming that unknown means bad. Richard Sherman was unknown when he stepped on the field for the first time as a starter in the middle of the 2011 season. Kam Chancellor was an unknown when he became a starter that same year. Doug Baldwin was an unknown as an undrafted free agent. Wilson, himself, was well publicized but how he would perform as a starter in the NFL was unknown before his rookie season. Unknown need not always equal subpar. In fact, the absolute worst time to face a team is when you know the least about them. Seattle is rolling the dice with a number of new elements of their team. They need more than a few to come up sevens to beat their former QB.
Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas
The rookie left and right tackles are going to be a central part to whatever story unfolds Monday night. Cross was expected to start after being drafted near the top of the first round this season, and has so far looked like the best left tackle in this draft class. His pass blocking has been good, sometimes very good. His run blocking has been okay. He had two games with no penalties during the preseason and one game with a whopping five.
Lucas had to prove more as a 3rd round pick to earn a starting right tackle job. He was arguably the highlight player in the Seahawks preseason with some of the most dominating blocks in the run game we have seen from a Seattle right tackle. He was also good in pass protection, and was relatively disciplined as far as penalties.
They will be going up against either Bradley Chubb or Randy Gregory, who are both quality pass rushers. It is equally important that they stand up in pass protection, run block well, and avoid penalties. That is a lot to ask two rookies starting in their first game on national television. Both are completely capable of doing exactly that.
Clint Hurtt, Sean Desai, and Karl Scott
This game is not only about the players. Seattle has a new defensive coordinator in Clint Hurtt, and two new coaches focused on the secondary in Sean Desai and Karl Scott. The league has adjusted to the Pete Carroll Cover 3 defense with a single high safety. Carroll has given Hurtt and these new coaches freedom to fully embrace a new scheme that more closely aligns with Vic Fangio’s defensive approach.
Hurtt has not been shy about saying he wants to play a more aggressive style. That likely means more rolled up corners on the outside, and could mean more variations of how they pressure the quarterback.
One of the key unknowns heading into this game is how they will disguise coverages and how they will create pressure. People have said Wilson knows Carroll’s defense as well as Carroll knows Wilson’s tendencies. This is not Carroll’s defense.
There have already been indications that what was once a predictable and vanilla approach to coverage is becoming more varied, or multiple, in football lingo. A player occupying a certain spot on the field no longer means what Wilson was accustomed to it meaning for his time here. Should he make the incorrect assumption, Seattle could wind up with a key turnover (or more).
Jamal Adams
Adams takes over for Wilson as the most polarizing figure on the Seahawks roster. Most fans are still focused on what was surrendered to trade for him and what he is being paid. Those fans will likely never be satisfied. Other fans still see a player who was a former 1st-team All-Pro, who has been badly misused in Seattle. You do not become an All-Pro by accident or without significant talent. Adams is a unique player, though, who cannot thrive in every scheme. Seahawks fans should be familiar with that having seen plenty of Seahawks corners like Byron Maxwell leave for other teams and struggle to play as well as they did in Seattle.
There are a number of signs pointing to Adams playing a more unpredictable role in this defense. Seattle has invested very little in the inside linebacker position. They have a variety of safeties on the roster. Adams has spoken glowingly about how he is “back in his element” and being used “as a weapon.”
That likely means Seattle will deploy three safeties more often than they have in the past, with Adams lining up all over the field, with a mission to wreak havoc. That does not mean blitzing every time like he did in his first season here. It does mean blitzing more often than he did last year, and from a variety of places and less predictable situations. He should also be a more impactful defender against the run.
Tariq Woolen
Another rookie, likely to start due to the injury to Artie Burns, will take center stage in this game. Woolen has earned the nickname, “Avatar,” from his teammates for his superhuman length and athletic ability. There is literally nobody built like Woolen playing corner in the NFL. He could fold under the pressure and big lights, or he could shine brightly. I’m predicting a little of both.
The thing is, Woolen can be beaten a few times by Wilson and crew, and still win the war if he creates a turnover. Wilson loves to throw the deep ball and into tight windows. Woolen’s speed, length, and ball skills could burn Wilson if he tries him too often.
Rashaad Penny
Penny is a little less of an unknown than the others listed here, but what is unknown is whether the last five games of last season were anywhere close to indicative of the kind of back he will be as a starter this season. The assumption by most is that he flashed at the end of a contract year and will either regress or get injured again. If he produces even 70% of what he did during that stretch, Seattle will be competitive in far more games than people are predicting. The Broncos run defense was not great last year, and does not appear any better this season.
DK Metcalf
Many forget that Metcalf played almost the entire season injured last year. He rarely practiced. When he did play, there was a clear lack of chemistry between him and Wilson. Some of Metcalf’s best games and plays came when he was paired with Geno Smith. The two did not play together at all during the preseason. Or, at least, no passes were attempted between the two. Metcalf could be in position to make more plays than ever, and it’s not clear the Broncos have anyone well suited to stop him.
Dee Eskridge
The top pick in the 2021 draft for Seattle is more known for not being Creed Humphrey than for anything he has done on the field. He fought injury most of the season, and the team used him carefully after his long-lasting concussion in the first game. Eskridge’s game is speed. He can be a weapon on jet sweeps and on punt returns. Nobody in Denver is spending a moment worried about him. That leaves plenty of opportunity for him to outperform expectations.
Pass rush
The Seattle pass rush is going to look very different than it has in the past. Darrell Taylor is the featured rusher, and is still mostly unknown after a first season where he registered 6.5 sacks. He has the potential to jump into the premier pass rusher category. Opposite him is Uchenna Nwosu, the Seahawks top free agent addition. Boye Mafe, a 2nd round pick this season, is a rotational edge rusher who flashed a bunch in preseason.
The interior features Shelby Harris, who had 7.0 sacks last season, and has been an elite interior rusher at times. There is also Quinton Jefferson and possibly Myles Adams. Bryan Mone and Poona Ford have shown more pass rush ability at times than most fans know.
Add in the blitzing potential with guys like Adams and Jordyn Brooks and Barton, and the pass rush could be less predictable, more speedy, and more disruptive than people are expecting. This may be the most important unknown outside of the offensive tackles. Seattle will have a hard time winning against Denver without some pressure on Wilson.
Geno Smith
The thing all Seahawks fans are bracing for is Smith being atrocious at quarterback. He was uninspiring last season in his starts, outside of a glowing performance against the awful Jaguars. He takes a ton of sacks, and has had trouble leading sustained drives.
Smith could look very different if the offensive line and Penny play well. He does not need to be great for Seattle to win this game. He needs other aspects of the team to play well and to be a positive contributor. That would look something like 200+ passing yards and 2+touchdowns without a turnover.
Carroll is trying to recreate a team where one player is not as heavily relied upon to win each week. This is the perfect game to demonstrate how that can work.
Compounding probabilities
If you assigned odds to each of the unknowns listed in this article turning out positively for Seattle, and then calculated the combined odds of all of them going the way of the home team, the percentage chance would be quite small. The reality is that Seattle does not need all of these to turn up perfectly to win this game.
They do need some unknowns to turn into strengths instead of the expected weakness. Each one of these have decent odds of surprising to the good. The fact that Wilson and the Broncos seem convinced they are already proven Super Bowl contenders only enhances the chance that they underestimate the Seahawks and struggle with adversity should Seattle put up a fight.
Many Seahawks fans are expecting a blowout loss. They are bracing for pain and shame. I am eager to see the beginning of a new chapter for the franchise, with a chance to see new heroes rise and old heroes fall. There will be no unknowns soon enough.