An oddly entertaining Seahawks preseason came to an end in a fittingly exciting fashion. An offense that had trouble stringing together two positive plays throughout the game, surged into a late lead and then turned to its third string quarterback to drive them the length of the field in a two-minute drill. Holton Ahlers showed his moxie once again, nearly completing the walk-off victory in Lambeau Field, but his desperation pass into the end zone was intercepted, finalizing a 19-15 loss and 2-1 preseason for the Seahawks.
Seattle played almost exclusively backups on both sides of the ball, while the Packers had their starters in for the first quarter. The Seahawks second string offensive line has struggled throughout preseason, and that was no different in this game. Packers defenders were leaking into the backfield quickly and regularly. The yards before contact on Seattle running backs had to be negative, as in, before they reached the line of scrimmage. That made it hard to really assess any of the backs, but it is worth noting that Zach Charbonnet has been less explosive than he showed in college to this point. Yes, he had the big run last week, but the statement still stands. He has not looked like a high-end back yet, which is what a second round pick ought to be.
Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan are veterans at this point. The expectations for their play should be higher than that of a rookie like Anthony Bradford. Instead, both Forsythe and Curhan have struggled mightily each game in the preseason. Where tackle depth was once considered a possible strength of the line, there have to be some concerns heading into the season.
Bradford, who has had the most flashy plays of any Seattle offensive lineman over the first two games while showing a lot of very raw play, had what might have been his best game. His pass protection seemed far more steady than it had been.
Kendall Randolph is another rookie guard who has gone mostly under the radar, but appeared to play well in this one. There is probably not a spot on the roster for Randolph, but he is a likely practice squad candidate.
The competition at center never really materialized as Olesegun Oluwatimi did not match Evan Brown either in performance or availability. Oluwatimi played in this one after missing a game with an elbow injury. True assessment would require seeing him fully healthy and against better competition. What he has shown so far warrants his fall to the fifth round. He is neither strong nor fast. He profiles as a backup center who can start and play decent football. Maybe that changes with full use of both his arms, so this is far from a final word. That is simply what he has put on tape so far.
Where the line mostly struggled, the receiving crew had a couple of standouts. Jake Bobo had his spot on the roster solidified before this game. Injuries and suspensions of other receivers have taken any drama out of Bobo’s fate. He has earned a spot on the roster with his play as a receiver and on special teams. As a receiver, he has flashed plus route running, recognition, and hands, while also being a plus blocker.
He showed all those traits again in this one as he had another touchdown on a well run route and solid catch in a relatively tight window. Unless Jaxon Smith-Njigba miraculously can make it back for week one of the season, expect Bobo to be the third receiver. That is how far he is from the cut line.
Cody Thompson and Cade Johnson entered camp as favorites to get the fifth and sixth spots behind Dee Eskridge. Eskridge is hurt and will be suspended for six games. Thompson is hurt, and has limited upside. Johnson played in this one after being hurt and was middling. Expect one of Cody or Cade to still make the roster due to familiarity and experience with the coaching staff, but neither has really made a strong case this preseason.
Easop Winston Jr., on the other hand, has flashed in each game he was able to play. He ran two wonderful routes and made great catches on both in this game. He and Drew Lock appear to have some budding chemistry. Winston Jr. also has some background as a return man, which gives him a solid shot to make this roster.
One of the wild cards here is Dareke Young. Young was considered a near-lock to make the team heading into this year, but has missed most of the time with a core injury and seems likely to require surgery. The way injured reserve (IR) rules work, Young would be required to miss the entire season if the team placed him on IR before the cutdown to 53 players on Tuesday. That means that the team may choose to keep him on the 53-man roster and then put him on IR the day after so they could bring him back later this season.
If they do that, Winston Jr. may not make the initial roster, but could be brought back the next day as it’s highly unlikely another team is going to snatch him up.
Lock played almost the entire game and had a pretty typical outing. He made some top-shelf throws that have you salivating, and some disturbing signs of boneheaded decision-making. A quarterback who consistently throws the ball in harm’s way is a quarterback who makes winning exceedingly difficult. Believe it or not, some Seahawks fans like to bring up Brett Favre as a counterpoint in defense of Lock.
Favre famously threw a ton of interceptions. It is true. He and Mike Holmgren butted heads for years. What made Favre a winning quarterback was an arm that was nearly unmatched in the game, and a level of confidence and leadership that was almost as rare. Even with those traits, he did not become a winner until he cut his interception rate in half. Favre was not great because he threw a lot of interceptions. He might have been the best of all-time had he not.
Lock is nowhere near the player Favre was. He will not be someone who can succeed while turning the ball over a lot. His process will need to be more repeatable and solid. That he still puts the ball in bad spots while playing against backups in preseason games leaves me wondering why anyone thinks he can better his career averages of throwing a pick for every touchdown as a starter.
Folks have wanted to see more about Lock in these articles. My assessment remains he is a good guy with decent leadership qualities and a strong arm who can make quality NFL throws, but does not have the process or mechanics to do it consistently against starting quality defenders. Even his gorgeous touchdown throw to Bobo was needlessly thrown while fading back from the line off his back foot. People say, “give him the chance you gave Geno.” I say, show me the pre-snap reads and decisiveness that Smith showed while the backup to Philip Rivers years ago in preseason, and I will absolutely call it out as I did then.
Seattle had a middling game on the defensive side of the ball. A few players stood out.
Michael Jackson switched over to playing corner on the side of the field Riq Woolen will play once the regular season starts. That is a decent sign that he is no longer the starter opposite Woolen. He struggled in this game, as he has the last two now. Even one of his passes defensed came on a play where he was badly beaten by a backup receiver and was able to recover to knock it away when the pass was underthrown.
Jackson is not as bad as fans would tell you. He is a quality starting corner. Maybe playing on this side of the field is a challenge for him. Remember D.J. Reed struggled on one side, and he’s turned out just fine. Jackson has a lot of fight in him, and is an excellent special teams player as well. He is a very good backup. The only issue is if he is getting starting snaps that should go to a more capable and higher ceiling alternative.
Tre Brown was mostly absent in this game, which we can take as a decent sign. Either he or Devon Witherspoon will start opposite Woolen in week one.
Jerrick Reed II had a terrific game. He has flashed at nickel and at safety. He was aggressive and physical in this one. There may not be a spot on the roster for him, but he is almost a lock for the practice squad. Joey Blount was injured during the game, and Jonathan Sutherland missed the game with injury. If those guys are not healthy enough to play in the first few weeks, there is a chance Reed sneaks on the roster.
Levi Bell remains a fascinating story. He was doing great work as an outside linebacker on the edge. Seattle asked him to lineup inside as a defensive tackle in this one for many of his snaps. The average defensive end on this roster is 280+ pounds. Bell is 265 pounds. It was a lot to ask. He was mostly overpowered and outmatched inside. Though, he did make at least one nice play in that alignment.
He had a few pressures once he was moved back outside. He also got snaps at fullback again. The coaches are intrigued or they would not be switching him around like this. It seems very clear that he is a better player than Tyreke Smith. While both could make the roster, Bell would be the better choice. Smith will not be signed elsewhere and could sign back to the practice squad. Bell might be the same, but he has shown more than Smith, so it is a bigger risk.
Matthew Gotel, the massive 340+ pound defensive tackle, had his best game. I still would be surprised if the Seahawks did not add someone else at the defensive end and/or defensive tackle spot after cutdown. If it is a veteran, the would likely wait until after week one to sign someone like Ndamukong Suh to avoid having his contract guaranteed for the full season. If there is a young guy they like on another roster, there could be a trade before cutdown or a guy added right after cutdown.
Artie Burns is another guy who has fought his way onto this roster. I did more roster math this week and it seems likely the Seahawks will keep at least 10 defensive backs, possibly 11. Coby Bryant can play corner and safety. I think the Seahawks want him at safety. Burns played nickel in this game, and did wonderfully.
It seems likely that Woolen, Witherspoon, Brown, Jackson and Burns all make it. Then you have Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs, Julian Love, Bryant and one of: Blount, Sutherland, Reed to reach ten. They could keep two of those guys to reach eleven. Burns would seem to be safe in either scenario.
We now wait until Tuesday to find out the initial 53-man roster, and Wednesday to find out the more accurate version. These names at the edges of the roster have much of our focus now, but it will be many of the guys who have barely seen the field to this point who will decide the scope of this season ahead. Kickoff inches closer.