The Super Bowl is tomorrow. Seattle faces off against New England in a game between two opponents who are connected by a historic play, and little else. Drake Maye has put together a season worthy of MVP consideration, but in relative obscurity for most Seahawks fans. Seattle has assembled the league’s best defense, but Patriots fans have had little exposure to the team tucked up in the northwest corner of the country. Both teams and fan bases have spent the last two weeks learning about one another. The learning was mostly done after a few days. Oversaturation has been the story since.
There are no new insights to uncover that really matter. There are no new storylines worth telling. Consider this more a journal of my final thoughts than an attempt to add to the conversation.
We have heard repeatedly that the Seahawks are the better team. Almost everyone is picking Seattle to win, and many are so bullish that they expect a comfortable margin of victory or have trouble coming up with a game script where the Patriots win. That has the ironic effect of making most Seahawks fans both happy and deeply uncomfortable.
The Seahawks are the more talented team. They should win. They also are probably in for a far tougher game than many are predicting.
New England is the second-best team the Seahawks have faced this season. They are not as good as the Rams, but they are better than the 49ers, the Texans, or any other team Seattle played. They are well-coached, disciplined in their assignments on defense, and feature elite talent in pivotal positions.
Maye is capable of making plays that guys like Brock Purdy or Matt Stafford can make, while also threatening with his legs in a way that would keep any defensive coach up at night. Milton Williams is a game-changing interior defender playing next to another defensive tackle who is not far behind in Christian Barmore. Christian Gonzalez is one of the best corners in the game. Mike Vrabel has his squad maximizing their talent, and playing with a grit that makes them hard to shake and often more than their opponents can handle. Josh McDaniels is one of the best play callers in the game.
The idea that the Patriots have little chance against any team they face is foolish. The talk about their schedule is overblown. The criticism of their offense in the playoffs is misguided. They are worthy of being the AFC representative in the Super Bowl, and will give the Seahawks everything they can handle.
If it took Seattle their “A” game to beat a team like the Rams, it will take at least an “A-” game to beat the Patriots.
Part of what has made the Seahawks such a great team this season has been how consistently they have been from week-to-week. Nobody has been able to truly separate from them. The one time a team did get ahead by a decent margin, Seattle still came back and won.
The Patriots cannot feel good about the matchup between the left side of their line and the array of weaponry the Seahawks can deploy to attack that spot. They may like their corners, but have to be uncomfortable with the stress players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, and Ken Walker III can apply both vertically and horizontally. They should be confident in their young quarterback, and also concerned about how he will hold up against the sophistication of Mike Macdonald’s defense.
One of the intangible reasons this game should be great is that both coaches instill confidence in their clubs while avoiding the traps of overconfidence. They prepare and play like professionals.
Neither team provided any bulletin board material this week. There is mutual respect.
People outside the building have provided New England with enough extra motivation with the constant wave of Seattle love and Patriots doubt. Maybe that intangible matters. Maybe it does not. In a matchup this close, little things tend to matter.
Experience playing in the Super Bowl can be one of those little things. These two teams have remarkably few guys who have been there before. Williams was there last year with the Eagles. Cooper Kupp and Ernest Jones IV were there with the Rams. Vrable played in it, but has not coached in it. McDaniels has coached in plenty of Super Bowls. John Schneider has helped his team through a bunch himself. That aspect is probably a push.
If this game is going to be close in the end, how teams perform in those close and late moments could be the difference. Seattle has an edge there. Sam Darnold has 4 game-winning drives this season, and 9 over the past two years. Maye has just two this season. His numbers in close and late moments (less than 5 minutes to go in the 4th quarter or overtime with a scoring margin of +/- 8 points) are not great. He has yet to throw a touchdown, has been sacked three times, and has an 82.6 passer rating. It might be tough to count on those numbers improving in the biggest game of his life while facing this Seahawks defense.
Lost in all the focus on Darnold’s turnovers is that he has been among the best close and late QBs in the NFL the last two seasons. He has the third-highest passer rating (111.2) and third-most passing TDs (5) in those situations since 2024.
Maybe the masses will be right, and this will be a clean win for Seattle that will prove their NFL supremacy. I expect a far closer contest that could go either way. Seattle likely wins six times if these teams play ten games. Whether this game will be one of those six will come down to a few key moments and a few key decisions.
Lineup Notes
Seahawks fans have slowly recovered from the Nick Emmanwori injury news that sent them into a freakout frenzy earlier this week. The do-everything rookie has no injury designation for this game, and should be good to after practicing fully on Friday. Robbie Ouzts is the only true question mark. The fact that he has been battling a neck injury and was not made available to the media most of the week is probably not a good sign for his chances to play in this one. That would lead to more multiple tight end sets for Seattle, and use of Eric Saubert as an H-back when the team wants an extra blocker in the backfield. Brady Russell will play, but does have a hand injury that likely keeps him out of the backfield.
New England had their own little freakout with Maye’s shoulder injury. That appears to be behind him and the team. The remaining questions for them are defenders Robert Spillane and Harold Landry. Both have practiced in some capacity this week and have said they intend to play. The fact that the injuries are problematic enough to still be questions after two weeks could indicate they will be limited even if they get on the field, or may not be able to stay out there. Spillane is critical to the Patriots, and Landry was their sack leader. Missing either or both would be a significant shift in this game.
Personnel Spotlight
Special for the Super Bowl, I pulled numbers for how both teams perform on offense and defense in key personnel groupings.
The Seahawks have been one of the lowest 11-personnel teams in the NFL. They have dramatically improved their performance in that grouping since the addition of Shaheed. They are running from that grouping better than they had earlier in the year. Their bread-and-butter remains 12-personnel. They were the second-best EPA team in that grouping this season, and were equally likely to run or pass, making it tough on defenses to key on their tendencies.
New England has been very good at defending 11 and 12, ranking in the top ten against both. They struggled against 21, which makes the potential absence of Ouzts a bigger issue.
The Patriots are the best 11 offense in the NFL, but use it less than 50% of the time. Seattle has been a top ten defense against that grouping. New England like to run 21 as well (4th-highest usage rate), but the Seahawks have been the best 21 defense in the league this season. Former Husky Jack Westover will test them as the fullback who can be an effective receiver.
DVOA
Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
NOTE: The Total DVOA, Off vs Def, and Special Teams DVOA rows are using the weighted DVOA metric that includes playoff games. The Pass Off vs Run Def and Run Off vs Run Def rows are regular season only.
DVOA sees this game largely the way I do. Seattle has advantages in most areas, but the overall strength of these two teams makes it a close one. The Patriots challenges in defending #1 receivers is less about Christian Gonzalez and more about opponents finding ways to get their top target advantageous looks.
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Note: All of these rankings include playoff games except for passer rating
Patriots key advantages on defense
Willams and Barmore are game-wreckers inside. Opponents have been unable to run on the duo and they are disruptive in rushing the passer. They will look for ways to overwhelm the Seahawks interior line where Anthony Bradford, Jalen Sundell, and Grey Zabel have had rough moments at times. Kobie Turner was the biggest disrupter when facing the Rams, and one could argue the Patriots have two players of Turner’s caliber on their line.
The Patriots have been blitzing far more in the playoffs. Their disguises are good, and help an otherwise underwhelming edge rush get some pressure with some effective twists and stunts.
Their corners are all capable of making plays on the ball.
New England will feel good about their chances if they are able to limit the Seahawks run game and allow their pressure packages and interior talent to take over.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Part of what makes JSN so difficult to defend is that he does just about everything well and can be almost anywhere in the formation. This is not a guy who will stay on one side of the field and run a few specific routes well. Teams can try to put their best corner on him, but is that corner comfortable playing in all the spots JSN can line up?
There has been some talk of Gonzalez shadowing JSN. Gonzalez has played 828 snaps at outside corner and 38 snaps in the slot. How comfortable is he sorting through the messy middle of the field without the boundary acting as a de facto defender? What about covering a player coming out of the backfield who can’t be pressed? Gonzalez is a terrific talent, but learning new skills while facing the best receiver in the NFL in the Super Bowl is a lot to ask.
All the attention on JSN makes life easier for Shaheed, who is a mismatch vertically against any of the Patriots corners. Jake Bobo is another interesting name to watch as his height could be factor when matched up against 5’8″ Marcus Jones in the slot. Bobo and Kupp should have a blocking advantage there in the run game as well.
Walker has become almost as much of a headache as JSN. He is getting every yard on the ground and causing missed tackles in space as a receiver. The screen game for the Seahawks has quietly become a strength and could figure heavily into the game plan against some of these aggressive looks from the Patriots.
Seattle tight ends are among the most underappreciated position groups in the league. They are massive, and have a huge hand in the run and pass game. One name to monitor is Elijah Arroyo, who has not yet been active for a playoff game. It would create some uncertainty for New England if the hyper-athletic rookie was part of the game plan.
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Patriots key advantages on offense
Maye was fantastic during the regular season. While struggling in the playoffs, he has still made enough plays to win. His legs and ability to not just extend plays, but take off for big runs, has to be the number one concern for Macdonald. They have experienced what it is like to play great defense against Purdy for 3-4 seconds, only to surrender a back-breaking throw or scramble. Maye has a similar profile. He holds onto the ball for a long time and that can lead to big plays or sacks.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a battering ram out of the backfield, and is excellent in blitz pickup. His backfield partner, Teveyon Henderson, is a big play machine. He is a liability as a pass protector, though, and that limited him to just four snaps against the Broncos.
Stefon Diggs remains a great route runner, who is reliably open for Maye. The other receivers are all capable of making big plays. It is a group without top-shelf talent, but their advantage comes in their ability to have contributors across the board. Deciding where to concentrate coverage is easier when you know the one or two guys you want to limit.
New England not only has an array of receivers, but guys like Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper at tight end.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
The Patriots play two rookies on the left side of the line in Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Both are talented players, but have some physical limitations that make them targets for the Seahawks pass rush plan. Center Garret Bradbury has also had some challenges against size. He gave up a sack last year against the Seahawks when playing for the Vikings, and had just a 26.6 pass blocking grade in that game.
The most plausible way this game could get out of hand is if the Seahawks defensive front overwhelms the Patriots line and has Maye under siege the whole game. Maye has been sacked 5 times in each of their three playoff games so far, and has fumbled a lot as well. He was excellent against pressure during the regular season. That has not been the case in the postseason.
Watch for Derick Hall and Boye Mafe to potentially play bigger roles in this game as their matchups are favorable.
One schematic matchup that will be interesting to watch is whether this potential Cover 6 approach that Seattle employs is, indeed, a weak spot for Maye.
Special Teams
The Seahawks special teams has been remarkably consistent in finding ways to impact the outcome of games. They will have one of their biggest challenges of the year in covering Jones as a punt returner. New England has some tough decisions to make with kickoffs. Do you want to risk allowing Shaheed to return or give Seattle the ball at the 35-yard line? The Patriots kicker has been one of the least accurate in the league, with all of his misses coming under 50 yards.
Key to a Patriots win
New England has to bottle up the Seahawks run game. Do this, and they should be able to keep the game close if they avoid turnovers. It would put the Seahawks in more difficult situations where the talent on their interior defensive line could shift the outcome. They also need Maye to play a clean game. He cannot be the source of turnovers and negative plays.
Key to a Seahawks win
Seattle’s ability to rush the passer is critical. This has been an uneven aspect of the team. Creating pressure without getting to the QB won’t cut it this time. They have to both contain Maye as a runner and hit him as a passer. They will win if that happens.