There are many ways to measure progress as an NFL team. The most common measure is wins. Another common measure is how far a team makes it in the playoffs. Some will look at whether the offense has stepped forward, or the defense. You can even get down to the minutiae of talent and performance of various position groups or individual positions. The 2023 season was set up to be one of meaningful progress. The team had a surprisingly productive 2022 campaign, found a quarterback capable of Pro Bowl performance, and had massive amounts of draft capital to add to the mix. Instead, the 2023 season has been a step backwards by almost any measure. The team will be fortunate to win as many games as a year prior, may not make the playoffs at all, and is scoring less on offense while allowing more points on defense. It is time to reset.
Pete Carroll and John Schneider did what seemed like some of their best work in achieving so much last season in what was supposed to be a non-competitive year one of rebuilding after trading away Russell Wilson. They left with crystal clarity that the area they most needed to improve in order to be competitive was in the trenches. They said it publicly. Teams like the 49ers were able to impose their will because of the extreme advantages at the line of scrimmage.
Despite having more draft capital in the 2023 draft than any team outside of the Houston Texans, and cap space to spend, the Seahawks have not substantially closed that gap in the trenches. They enter games against teams like San Francisco or Dallas or Philadelphia with a huge disadvantage to overcome.
That shows up in not being able to run the ball with any consistency on offense. That shows up in not being able to pass protect with any consistency. It shows up with being gashed in the run game or being rarely disruptive in pass rush.
This is still a team that gets pushed around. That will never result in a ring.
Seattle has overvalued edge players and offensive tackles and undervalued interior players on both sides of the ball. This team has not been able to impose their will on offense since Max Unger was traded. The clown car of offensive guards that have come through here is hard to swallow. Who would have guessed J.R. Sweezy and James Carpenter would be the best guards to play for this team in the last 14 years?
It is not like the Seahawks have not had chances to get stronger inside. The Seahawks infamously spend a 2nd round pick on Dee Eskridge instead of All-Pro Creed Humphrey. There have been two second-round picks spent on running backs the past two years. There have also been two second-round picks spent on edge players. The earliest pick Seattle has spent on an interior player on either side of the ball in the last three seasons was a 4th round pick on Anthony Bradford. They also spent a 4th round pick on Cameron Young.
Those are not exactly big moves to change the trajectory of a weak team on both sides of the ball in the trenches.
What you are left with is a Mustang sporting a lawnmower engine under the hood. This team wants to be powerful. It wants to run the ball. It wants to take deep shots. It wants to punish the quarterback and the ball carrier. Those things simply do not happen against quality opponents. Seattle is the little brother swinging wildly while the big brother smirks holding them outside of arms reach.
This season has absolutely been impacted by injuries in a major way. The offensive line, in particular, has been wrecked. It does not ultimately matter.
Seattle is a flailing football team and the issues have been consistent enough, for long enough, that the time has come to make dramatic changes.
The roster should be largely stripped down to the young players. Cap space should be cleared wherever possible. Any player who is not clearly part of the rebuild over the next three seasons from an age and contract perspective should be traded or let go.
This roster is mash-up of late-stage veterans and very inexperienced 1st or 2nd year players. There was this very narrow path to walk where if everything worked out, this team could contend by next season. That path would have involved the offensive line taking a big step forward. It would have involved Geno Smith playing better than last year. It would have involved the safety position being dynamic and impactful. It would have involved more than Devon Witherspoon flashing All-Pro potential.
I believe that plan has veered far enough off-course that the roster building window needs to be restarted. This is not as bad as 2010 or 2021, where the cupboard was empty of talent. But this crew is many players away from being a contender, and some of their better players are too old to be playing championship level football when this team will hopefully be ready to contend.
There needs to be a new coach. Ideally, there needs to be a new owner. Perhaps, the reports of Jody Allen having more of a reason to sell after May of 2024 are true and we can onboard a new owner (Jeff Bezos?) who will bring aboard a new leader for the team. I am not as clear on John Schneider, as it is hard to separate general manager personnel decisions from coaches and scheme.
My instinct is that Schneider is still one of the better GMs in the NFL. I just think it is time for a fresh perspective on coaches and scheme on both sides of the ball.
I would love to see a Dan Lanning-type added, and someone like Ryan Grubb given a shot at OC. Those are clearly regional names. I don’t claim to know the hot names across college football or even the NFL. I just know I respect the way Lanning leads a team and the way Grubb crafts a game plan and calls a game. There is inventiveness there.
What the team does at quarterback will be fascinating. Drew Lock played a mostly good game yesterday. He had some nice throws. He converted a couple third downs. He used his legs to escape pressure. He also was inaccurate at times, made some really questionable decisions, and had a couple of turnovers.
The team can get out of Geno Smith’s contract. He is the best quarterback they can likely have for the price they are willing to pay. Ideally, the team goes all-in on a quarterback in this draft and lets that player grow with the roster. The challenge is that I have less confidence in quarterback-first rebuilds.
Trevor Lawrence is a good young quarterback. Justin Herbert has seemed to be as well. Neither of those teams are close to contending. C.J. Stroud is doing historic things, and we will see where that team goes, but they are nowhere close to contending. You see how the Chiefs have gradually had to shed cap and talent to accommodate the Mahomes contract. You really want to maximize that rookie contract window to contend.
The 49ers and Eagles and Cowboys are good examples of teams who have invested more heavily in the rest of their roster first and then found a quarterback (after multiple attempts) to operate it. I do not see this Seahawks roster as ready to support a young quarterback.
I could be convinced that the team needs to spend another off-season building up the trenches and then going all-in on a quarterback in 2025. There’s no one right way to do this. I certainly would not have been upset if they had picked Stroud this season. He was the only quarterback on my draft board who I would have been excited to take early.
It is a shame we did not get to see Smith operate against the 49ers with the new game plan they rolled out last week against the Cowboys. It appeared like it was going to have some success against San Francisco. Smith would have likely given D.K. Metcalf some more chances as well. Instead, the team falls again.
The ceiling for this team is just too low to get excited about. It does not need a jumpstart. It needs an overhaul. The time has come for a new mechanic.