The mist fell gently, dampening the ground and dulling the shuffling sounds of vendors setting up for game day. Gray skies contrasted sharply with the neon pink of the T-Mobile Park sign. People walked slowly, bundled up for the first time in weeks, sipping coffee to chase away the drowsy pull of an early morning. It was a familiar scene, but something felt different. Both stadiums were empty, and yet, there was an energy pulsing through SoDo. It was as if the ballpark knew the Mariners had won in a dramatic fashion the night before, and the football field knew what was to come. These two slumbering giants, who have been home to some of the most middling teams, were rousing themselves for a return to purpose. There have been times when the Seahawks were the best team in the NFL. There have been times when the Mariners were the best or most entertaining team in MLB. There has never been a time when both were good in unison. This city is about to explode in support of their rising Mariners for what could be a historic postseason. The Seahawks stepped up to the plate and belted a home run of their own. Clear your calendars. You are not going to want to miss what’s coming.
Two years ago, fans packed Lumen Field to watch the Seahawks fight for a playoff spot against Mason Rudolph and the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were bullied on their home field, giving up 468 yards, including 202 yards rushing, and losing 30-23. Last year, the New York Giants came to town winless and without the services of their dynamic rookie receiver, Malik Nabers. Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll embarrassed the Seahawks on their home field. Two weeks ago, the hated 49ers strolled into Lumen Field and lost a number of their key players to injuries. Seattle made a series of fatal mistakes that ultimately cost them their home opener.
It was reasonable to wonder why this season would be any different. Maybe the Seahawks would be more rugged, but would they really rise to relevance with Sam Darnold at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as the offensive coordinator, and rookies sprinkled all over the lineup? Through three weeks of the season, no team has been more complete than the Seattle Seahawks.
They rank 1st in the NFL in DVOA, a measure of overall team efficiency. They rank 6th in offensive DVOA, 5th in defensive DVOA, and 1st in special teams. They rank 2nd in point differential, 5th in points per game, and 2nd in points allowed. They have scored more touchdowns on special teams the past two weeks than entire offenses scored this week. Their quarterback ranks 2nd in the NFL in success rate, a measure of how many yards are being gained with each throw compared to what is needed for a first down. Their defense is 4th in pressure rate, 2nd in EPA per rush, and 2nd in interceptions per opponent dropback. The Seahawks offensive line has allowed just 3 sacks (their fewest through 3 games of a season since 1997), which is tied for 2nd-fewest in the NFL, and has only one penalty for holding.
You will hear every analyst downplay what Seattle did to a hapless and winless Saints team. Those doubts will likely continue even if Seattle beats the Cardinals in Arizona, and an injured Bucs team the following Sunday. Let them.
Those of us who have witnessed the nauseating performances by the Seahawks against terrible opponents for the last decade understand the difference between squeaking by Spencer Rattler and going full Hulk versus Loki on them. We also have the capacity to recognize both the 49ers and the Cardinals were in dogfights with this same Saints team down to the final possession.
Nobody is foolish enough to crown the Seahawks as Super Bowl favorites after trouncing New Orleans at home. It was hard to tell at times where to give the Seahawks credit and where to just wince at the Saints performance. They did not look like a team that flew in early to Seattle and practiced at Husky Stadium to acclimate to the time zone, which they did.
The disparity was most evident on special teams, where Jay Harbaugh’s unit continued a torrid start to the season. Tory Horton Jr.’s 95-yard punt return for touchdown, followed by crunching kick coverage, and then the most oddly unblocked punt block you’ll ever see, made for a full season of special team’s highlights in the span of a few minutes. This, after blocking a field goal in the first game, and scoring a pivotal touchdown in the win over the Steelers, should have many Seahawks fans recanting their criticisms of Harbaugh after some rocky moments last year.
The Seahawks blocking on every return was sublime. Horton nearly had another huge punt return where every Saints was perfectly sealed, but his momentum carried him out of bounds. Dareke Young almost broke a kickoff return, but had to settle for 60 yards.
Seattle’s offense started the second straight game with an opening drive touchdown after the defense provided great field position by stopping the Saints on 4th down near midfield. They were bailed out by a Saints personal foul penalty to extend the drive, but deserve credit for taking advantage of the mistake and getting seven points instead of three.
The Seahawks scored touchdowns on their first three drives. None of them were longer than 55 yards, and two were less than 40 yards. Meanwhile, the Saints offense was held to 24 yards, 5 yards, and -2 yards on their first three drives. That is what Macdonald envisions when he talks about complimentary football.
Each unit was doing their job. None were being carried by the other.
Seattle’s offense was not perfectly efficient. They managed less than 10 yards rushing in the first half, and finished averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. The Seahawks defense was not perfect either. They allowed Rattler and the Saints passing game a 50% success rate through the air. As good as Seattle’s defense has been, there is room for growth in defending the pass. They rank 20th in dropback success rate on the season (47.3%).
Despite their strong pressure rate, they are still not getting the quarterback on the ground often enough, and are allowing players to escape the pocket to extend plays. It is good news that teams are worried enough about the Seahawks pass rush to rely heavily on quick passing (under 2.5 seconds). It’s not great that they are still finding some success. The Saints had the 8th-best EPA/dropback in the NFL this week on quick throws.
Coby Bryant had at least two chances to drop a Saints player in the backfield on quick screens, but failed to get the player down. Good that he diagnosed the play. Not good that he missed the tackles.
When Macdonald and the players talk about having room to improve, these are the types of areas they are talking about.
The goal is no longer to demonstrate Macdonald can carry his defensive success to a new team as a head coach or to prove this group can sustain the Top 5 play they achieved over the last half of the 2024 season. The goal is to be the best defense in football, a championship level defense. The biggest gap to getting there right now is the pass rush getting to the quarterback.
Offensively, the team is in a fascinating place. Darnold has been fantastic. He has exceeded the most optimistic projections of what he would look like after leaving the cozy confines of Kevin O’Connell’s Minnesota offense. He’s been decisive without being rushed. He’s been accurate to all areas of the field. He’s managed to maintain his place as an explosive passer while dramatically reducing his time to throw. He almost had a perfect day on Sunday, with a 98.0 QBR (on a scale of 0-100). He now sits between Matt Stafford and Dak Prescott for QBR on the year. His passer rating of 104.7 is just behind Justin Herbert’s 105.5 for 6th overall.
He still has to prove himself in big games against great teams, but the evidence is mounting that he is much more than a bridge quarterback. Ironically, every talking head outside Seattle considered it great news that the Seahawks could get out of his contract after one year. Those same folks will soon be talking about the coup of signing a young franchise quarterback for a below-market contract.
Kubiak deserves kudos for continuing to scheme players open and crafting the offense to Darnold’s strengths. The Seahawks passing game has been one of the most efficient in football. One of the biggest questions headed into the season was whether the receiver room was dynamic enough to create explosive plays. Critics often cited the loss of D.K. Metcalf as a void they could not fill. Well, through three weeks, the Seahawks have the most explosive passing offense in the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads all receivers is explosive receptions. He also leads the NFL in 40+ yard receptions with three. Metcalf has none.
Maybe more surprising is that Cooper Kupp has more explosive catches (5) than Metcalf (3). Or maybe that A.J. Barner only has one fewer than Metcalf despite being targeted only 6 times on the season.
Barner, by the way, had the best catch of the day on a diving grab for 23 yards.
That Kubiak and Darnold are making this passing game hum without the benefit of a good run game is by far the most pleasant surprise of the season. In the multiverse of possibilities I could envision for this team, the one where the passing game carried the offense was the least probable.
By itself, that already raises the ceiling for this team. Pass efficiency is usually the most stable way to have a productive offense week-to-week. It tends to be more reliable than a run game or a good defense. Much of the credit goes to Smith-Njigba, Darnold, and Kubiak. Another healthy dose goes to John Benton and the offensive line.
The Seahawks rank 9th in the NFL in pressure rate allowed to opponents. More encouraging is that rises to 8th in the NFL when the offense is in shotgun, where the team is far more likely to pass the ball and defenses know to rush the passer.
Again, part of that credit goes to Darnold and Kubiak for getting the ball out quickly, but that’s the point. Where Seattle was riddled with dysfunction on offense the past decade with no commitment to the run game or play action or getting the ball out quickly, the offensive line was left to bake in the sun and was never talented enough to survive. Now, the parts are working together to build a machine that has a chance to gain momentum.
The problems in the run game are real. The Seahawks are seeing stacked boxes (8+ defenders near the line of scrimmage) more than all but one team in the NFL. Their 37.5% rate is second only to the Chargers 39.2% rate. That means one of two things is true: the desire to shut down the run is opening the pass game even without rushing success or the run game is going to start seeing more success now that defenses have to account for a high performance pass attack.
Keep in mind that run blocking is also far more complex than pass protection, requiring many more moving parts to work in unison. This offensive line is young and still adapting to each other. There is every reason to believe they will be better as the season wears on.
The emergence of Horton and credibility of Kupp have been exactly what the doctor ordered. Elijah Arroyo and Barner are weapons that should continue to sharpen. Ken Walker is running hard and has been more decisive than years past.
It’s not out of the question that this could wind up being a Top 10 offense in the league. To do that, they will need to prove themselves against tougher competition. The Cardinals have the 13th-ranked DVOA defense. Tampa Bay has the 11th. Jacksonville has the 4th. Atlanta has the 9th. Not to mention the Rams (12th) and the 49ers (6th).
Finding a way to win in Arizona on a short week and then getting a mini-bye before the Bucs come to town would set Seattle up for a strong run. They may get back Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Nick Emmanwori this week. Even if they do not, those guys are close to returning and their replacements have played excellent football. Derion Kendrick, in particular, is going to be hard to pull off the field once Witherspoon returns. Where there was once some concern about cornerback depth, now the team feels flush. The pickup of Kendrick after the Rams cut waived him could go down as John Schneider’s latest coup.
The vibes are good around this team. It is hard not to stare backwards at that season opening loss and not wonder what could have been. Credit to Macdonald and the team for flushing that game and quickly recapturing the style of play they worked so hard to achieve all offseason. The Seahawks do not yet look like the best team in the NFL, the NFC, or even their own division. They do look like a team that is already very good in all phases, with reasons to think they will get better. We have not seen the best of these Seahawks. They will continue to be slept on. Sunday was the start of the awaking.