Superstition creeps into the minds of many passionate fans. They tell themselves not to look past the upcoming opponent. They retreat to “any given Sunday” coaching tropes. All of those instincts come from the experience of seeing their favorite team fall to a lesser foe. It is painful. It is irritating. This game between the Seahawks and Commanders will have Seattle fans tossing salt over their shoulder and knocking on wood because this game really should not be close.

These game previews typically focus on advantages for both teams. There are very few times when the talent gap is so large that it would be disingenuous to present the game as anything but a mismatch. This is one of those times.

Of course, the Commanders could rise up and win this game. They are 0-2 and fighting for their season at home with a very good coach who can motivate with the best of them. If that happens, though, it will be because of a lot of unlikely things occurred, not because they are the better team. Take a look at the numbers and decide for yourself.

Lineup Notes

The first injury report had Sam Darnold as limited. It seems like he has a real shot to play, but Seattle has already shown they can win with Drew Lock. Anthony Bradford going to IR means more Beau Stephens and Christian Haynes. Nick Emmanwori should be a full go for the first time.

The Commanders could be without their best guard in Sam Cosmi (concussion), and are already without their left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. Keep an eye on DT Javon Kinlaw, who did not practice Wednesday and is a key part of their run defense. The big absence is QB Jayden Daniels, who was hurt last weekend.

Team Overview

There is not much for the Commanders to hang their hats on when comparing the teams holistically.

Styles Make Fights

Seattle and Brian Fleury boast the top play action passing offense in the NFL. They have yet to throw an incomplete pass on play action. They are also best in under center. The outside zone run game has worked well.

Washington’s offense changes with Daniels out. A significant part of their run game was from their quarterback. They are, however, the top inside zone team in the league so far. That might change without Cosmi.

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense

Overview

Yikes. The Seahawks offense has not been super efficient, but the Commanders defense has been so bad, they make Seattle look like a juggernaut.

Passing game

The passing game, in particular, enjoys a huge advantage over the Commanders. The secondary has some real holes, and the pass rush has not been good enough to cover them up.

Receiving game

Run game

The Commanders run defense has been pretty good, but losing Kinlaw would hurt them in that area. Jadarian Price was injured against the Cardinals. We will see what his availability will be as the week progresses. Emanuel Wilson could see a larger load.

Commanders key advantages on defense

The run defense can be their biggest advantage. There are some decent edge rushers, but nobody dominant.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The passing game is the biggest gap. It has to be keeping the Commanders coaches up at night trying to figure out to handle the Seahawks receiving corps.

Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Here we are again. This is the best defense in football going against an offense that was struggling with their playmaker at quarterback. It feels bleak without their starter there and potentially without their best interior lineman.

Pass game

The Commanders give up a lot of pressure, but Daniels has been adept at avoiding sacks. Mariota is agile as well, but this is a tough spot.

Receiving game

Stefon Diggs has 3 TDs already. Both Josh Jobe and Devon Witherspoon have fared well against him in past matchups. Terry McLaurin missed the game last season and is a big play threat. Seattle has just shut down everyone through the air so far.

Running game

These numbers are again aided by Daniel’s legs. He was responsible for 100 of their 314 rushing yards on the year. Seattle is incredibly tough to run the ball against.

Commanders key advantages on offense

Mariota can create with his feet at times and is an accurate passer. The receiving corps has some solid route runners.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle arguably has an advantage at every position on the field when the Commanders are on offense.

Special Teams

The Commanders do not bring a great special teams unit to the party either.

Key to a Commanders win

They need some explosive plays through the air and some turnovers and a Seahawks team that comes out slow and never turns it on.

Key to a Seahawks win

Play with intensity and focus. They really just need to bring the energy they do every week, and the talent disparity should be enough to even make up for some mistakes.