A banner will be unveiled prior to kickoff of this game. It will commemorate a moment the Seahawks cherish and the Patriots would like to forget. Soon after, these two teams will be given the honor of starting the 2026 season, just as they ended the 2025 slate. Most analysts are not giving the Patriots much of a chance to win this game. They look at the dominance from Seattle in that Super Bowl, where New England was scoreless through three quarters, and assume it will only get worse on the Seahawks home field. They might be right.
Seattle comes into this game dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, and will face one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL from a year ago with what should be an improved offensive line and clearly better receiving corps. The combination of where Seattle is injured and where New England made the most offseason improvements could lead to a very different game than what we witnessed in Levi’s Stadium just seven months ago.
That game was not close, though, so the Patriots will need more than a strong passing attack to get a different result. Seattle has reason to believe they are a better team than the one that played in February. Their young offensive line has a full season together and returns with the same line coach. The receiving corps has had a full offseason Rashid Shaheed in the mix, and what appears to be a resurgent Cooper Kupp. The defensive line that wrecked the Patriots looks better and deeper. As unhappy as the Patriots were with the way they played, Sam Darnold and the offense felt they left a lot of points on the table as well.
Games played in week one are notoriously hard to prognosticate and commonly misleading. Both of these teams suffered a loss in week one last season and did pretty well. One of them will start the season with another loss. The advantages point in Seattle’s direction. New England has to be not only better, they need Seattle to be quite a bit worse.
Programming note: Tale of the Tape relies on data from the season to preview games. Week 1 provides a challenge without any current season data to reference. What you will see in this article is 2025 data. Most of it will include playoff data. You will also notice far more data than has been provided in past years. Thanks to the folks at FTNFantasy.com and SumerSports for providing access to a deeper set of insights for me to mine and provide to you.
Lineup Notes
Final injury reports are due out later today. The expectation is Seattle will be without starting safety Ty Okada and do-it-all defender, Nick Emmanwori. They will likely also be without receiver Tory Horton. That will mean large roles for new faces like Rodney Thomas at safety and possibly AJ Finley or D’Anthony Bell. We should also expect to see more three linebacker packages for the Seahawks with Tyrice Knight earning reps. Zach Charbonnet remains on PUP, and will be out at least the first four games.
The Patriots will likely be without explosive running back TreVeyon Henderson. Although, he did travel with the team. Big defensive tackle Christian Barmore practiced fully on Monday and should be expected to play. Harold Landry led the team in sacks last season and starts the year on PUP, so he is out.
Team Overview
The Seahawks were the best team in football last year. The Patriots were better than most gave them credit for. One of the numbers here that merits attention is the Seahawks finishing 7th in turnover differential after a turnover-free playoff run. That, after being 27th in the NFL in TO margin through eleven weeks. How they protect the football will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this game.
Styles Make Fights
This is a new section this season where we look at the offensive styles of both squads to see how they like to attack opponents.
The Seahawks were the 2nd-best play action team in the NFL last year. One thing to watch is whether tempo is something they lean on more. They went no huddle only 7% of the time (17th in the NFL), but were 4th in EPA/play when they did it. Use of shotgun versus under center is another thing to monitor as Brian Fleury enters as the new offensive coordinator. Kyle Shanahan ran a lot more shotgun in San Francisco, where Fleury learned a lot. Darnold is one of the best QBs from under center in the league. We will see if Fleury leans into Darnold’s strength, or has ideas about how to utilize shotgun more effectively.
It is worth noting the Patriots defense struggled to defend inside zone runs last season. New running backs Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson could be well positioned to exploit that weakness if it still exists.
The Patriots were one of the most efficient pass games in the league last year. They did not use motion that often (24th), but were deadly when they did (5th in EPA). One of the only places where the Pats had an advantage was in the screen game, but they were 31st in the NFL in screen rate, and the possible absence of Henderson likely reduces that further.
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Overview
Turnovers is the big one. The Patriots defense bowed up quite a bit in the playoffs and people seem to forget Seattle struggled to get in the endzone until the fourth quarter. These numbers give an indication of why that was a tighter battle.
Something to monitor will be how Fleury utilizes personnel packages. Seattle was 30th in 11 personnel (3 WRs) last year, and were middling in efficiency. The presence of Shaheed could change that. New England was great at defending 11 personnel last year. Two tight end sets (12 personnel) were the bread-and-butter of the Seahawks last year. We will see if that continues with a new play caller.
Passing game
DVOA did not like the Patriots pass defense. They were excellent at killing explosive passes. That showed up in the Super Bowl. Their inability to put pressure on the passer was their downfall, and it does not appear they are in much better shape to do that this season.
Seattle ate base defense alive. The Patriots struggled whenever they went base. Whether Fleury can force New England into base is a big storyline in this one. Fleury also likes having two backs (21 personnel). Look for a number of different players to line up in the backfield outside of the typical running back and fullback.
Receiving game
It was misleading last year to see the Patriots ranking so poorly in defending WR1s via DVOA. That is not how the game played out and Christian Gonzalez was fantastic in that one. But it is fair to wonder if the rest of the Pats secondary is ready to handle the Seattle receiving corps. The screen game will look different without Kenneth Walker III. Look for Price to get his opportunities.
Run game
The Seahawks run game was highly inefficient most of the season. Many believe Walker got on a hot streak. The alternative explanation is that the team fired their RB coach late in the year and the whole running back room improved after that, along with maturing of the offensive line. This game will help sort out which was true. The addition of Dre’Mont Jones at edge for the Patriots could bolster a lackluster run defense that really hurt them in that game.
Patriots key advantages on defense
Milton Williams and Barmore are still a handful inside. New England’s tendency to blitz can create turnovers. Gonzalez is an elite cover corner. Those are legitimate strengths they will need to leverage to slow down Seattle.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Price and Wilson are relative unknowns for the Patriots (and to Seahawks fans). Fleury is a wildcard. How Shaheed will be utilized will look much different than a year ago. How Fleury uses motion, particularly on run plays is something to keep an eye on. There could be some big gains on the ground. If Seattle can be effective running the football, it will be hard for the Patriots to repeat their stingy start to the Super Bowl. If Darnold connects on a couple of the throws he missed in that one, Seattle could put up a lot of points.
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Overview
The Patriots offense slowed considerably in the playoffs, dragging down some of these numbers. Their turnovers ballooned with 8 giveaways in the postseason. They used a lot of 21 personnel and got a new fullback this season in Reggie Gilliam. He is a battering ram that could help create some more space.
Escape rate is a new stat I will be monitoring this season that basically tells the story at how good offenses are at turning obvious passing situations (e.g., 2nd and 8+) into non-obvious pass situations (e.g., 3rd and less than 5). Teams that are good at this, tend to be some of the most potent offenses in the sport. New England was quite good at this last year.
Pass game
This was an area of advantage for the Patriots when the Seahawks were fully healthy and had Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant on the squad. There is little doubt the pass defense of Seattle will be tested early and often. The Patriots pass protection was problematic at times. They have added a new starting left guard and moved on from a struggling center. Seattle will need their pass rush to be effective in order to cover up a banged up secondary.
Receiving game
The addition of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs at WR makes this a vastly more talented group than what Seattle faced in February.
Running game
The Patriots lack of run game was a problem in the Super Bowl, and very well could be a problem again in this one.
Patriots key advantages on offense
Brown has a size advantage over the Seahawks corners. He is a totally different coverage challenge than Stefon Diggs. Doubs is a savvy route runner who can help keep the chains moving. Drake Maye was the MVP runner-up, but fell down to earth in the playoffs. He can create with his feet as well, which can be an even bigger issue in week one, when defenses have not been tackling to the ground or hitting QBs all summer. Seattle is unlikely to be able to sit in nickel and stop the run the same way they did when Emmanwori was available. The injury to Okada exacerbates that further. If New England can protect Maye, they could put up big numbers.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Mike Macdonald dominated this matchup with Josh McDaniels. He dissected the Patriots protections and had Maye running for his life all afternoon. Rylie Mills had a monstrous sack and is now a key part of the deeper rotation at defensive tackle. Byron Murphy II is primed for an even bigger season, and he had two sacks against New England last time. Derick Hall just got a new deal and is eager to build off the two sacks he had in that game. Seattle needs those guys to wreak havoc to help their secondary.
Special Teams
Jason Myers was a record setter in the Super Bowl. He has been shaky in the preseason. You have to wonder where his confidence is heading into this one. The Seahawks were a far better special teams unit last year. It is not clear if Shaheed will be used as a returner this season. That is something to keep an eye on.
Key to a Patriots win
It really comes down to pass protection for New England. They can score points if Maye is provided some time. Even then, they will likely also need to win the turnover battle to walk out with a victory.
Key to a Seahawks win
Run the football and rush the passer. Do those two things and Seattle wins this game.