Sunday, January 8, 2012

2011 Seahawks Progress Report: Season's End

PREVIOUS 2011 PROGRESS REPORTS:
- Quarter-Point Progress Report
- Mid-Point Progress Report
- Three-Quarter Progress Report

Where to begin? First, be aware that there will be more season review reports to come. There will be a post detailing how this team's numbers compared with last year. There will be an analysis of how each player improved/regressed statistically. There will be positional reports gauging where the team needs to make strides in the off-season. This report is the last in the four-part series that measures the team's progress after each quarter of the season. Being that this is the final report, it will also share some 1st half/2nd half of the season comparisons where those are worth going over.

No stat may better capture the transformation of this team than the most basic of them all, points for and point against. Seattle spent the first half of the season being outscored by nearly eight points per game. They were
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giving up over 23 points per game, which would rank 22nd in the league if they had finished the year there. The offense, meanwhile, was only putting up 15 points per game, which would rank 27th in the NFL if they had kept that up all year. Those numbers saw dramatic shifts in the final eight games. Seattle outscored opponents by almost nine points per game. Only four teams in the NFL posted a higher differential over the season. Yes, doing something for a whole season means far more than doing it for less, but half a season is not exactly an insignificant sample size. The degree of change was remarkable. Scoring was up 56% to 24.9 points per game, and the defense dropped opponent scoring by 29% to 16.3 ppg.

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You can see the crossover clear as day when breaking out the scoring by quarters of the season. It is almost a mirror image. The scoring continued to rise all the way through the final four games, as the team averaged an impressive 26.3 points. The defense peaked in games 9-12, but was still holding teams to 17.3 during their 2-2 and final stretch. Seattle almost doubled up their scoring average from the first four games, where they managed only 14.5 points per game. Consider that Tarvaris Jackson was dealing with his injury that second half and that Sidney Rice was out for much of it as well, not to mention the offensive line injuries. Impressive.

They managed this transformation largely through three areas: (1) better running game (2) better turnover differential (3) weaker opponents. Take a look at how different the offense was from first-half to second.
Seattle went from passing for 1.5X the yards they were gaining on the ground to within spitting distance of a 1:1 rushing yards-to-passing yards ratio. That was no accident. The Seahawks were averaging 35 pass attempts and only 22 rush attempts through eight games. When Pete Carroll and Tom Cable had their fateful post-game chat after losing to Cincy, things changed in the game plan. Seattle flipped the script and ran 34 times per game and passed only 28. 


Try to look past the complexity of the chart above, and notice a few key trends. Seattle more than doubled it's rushing yardage from the first quarter of the season, even with a slight dip toward the end. Take a look at the purple line with X's marked on it. That is opponent passing yards. Seattle's pass defense stiffened considerably as the season wore on. Allowing only 171 yards passing per game for that final quarter was impressive. It is also worth noting that opponent rushing yards spiked the last four games. The negative trend in opponent yards per carry was noted in my Cardinals recap. Interestingly, it was not until the final four games that the Seahawks averaged more total yards than their opponents.

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Most of the improvement in pass defense can be credited to the insertion of Richard Sherman into the starting lineup. Opposing quarterbacks struggled mightily as soon as he started playing opposite Brandon Browner, but the team's pass rush also played a part. Sacks never tell the whole pass rush picture, but you can see the team made a steady climb as the season progressed. They more than doubled the number of sacks they had been producing when the season opened. The league leaders in sacks this year ended with 50, which works out to an average of just over 3 sacks per game. Seattle was closing in on that as the year completed. Opponent sacks had been steadily declining, but took an uptick with all the injuries to the line.

It should come as no surprise that the improvement in the running game led to a shift in time of possession. Seattle was one of the worst three teams in the NFL when it came to TOP in the first half of the year. The below charts show how Seattle did in TOP during the first eight games and the final eight. Half, in this case, refers to the half of a season, not half of a game.
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A big part of why the run defense weakened as the season went on was the amount of time they were on the field for the early part of the year. If the running game had not clicked when it did, and the pass defense had not improved so significantly, those opponent point and yard totals would not have looked nearly as nice in the second half of the year.


Seattle won the bulk of it's games during the third quarter of the season, and so it is no wonder that it enjoyed its best TOP advantage during that time. Only the Redskins won the TOP battle during that stretch, and only the Redskins beat the Seahawks. Seattle was equal with their opponents on TOP during the fourth quarter of the season, and predictably, were 2-2 in those four games.


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Running the ball is not the only thing that impacts TOP. Seattle significantly cut down on the amount of turnovers it was giving opponents, and drastically increased how many turnovers they were creating. They went from giving opponents nearly three extra possessions per game in the season's second quarter to giving them only one in the last quarter. Their defense went from creating almost no extra possessions at year's start to giving them 2-3 extra shots in the final half of the season. That obviously went a long way toward generating more time in possession, and less for the opponent. It also put the team in better position to score, or even turned into defensive scores that helped increase the point totals.


The team finishes the year with 1 win in each of the first two quarters of the season, 3 wins in the third quarter and 2 wins in the last quarter.


Summary Stats (Rankings)
Offense
Scoring - 20.1 +2.1 (23rd +3, meaning they were 26th after twelve games and have improved 3 spots in rankings since)
Rushing Yd/Game  - 109.8 +5.7 (21st +2)
Yards Per Carry - 4.0  +0.1 (T21st +1)
Passing Yd/Game - 194.0 -0.4 (22nd +3)
Yards Per Attempt - 6.8 +0.0 (20th no change)
Sacks - 50 +11 (29th +2)
QB Rating - 77.6 +2.8 (20th +4)
Turnovers - 23 +4 (14 INT +1, 9 Fumbles +3)

Defense
Opp Scoring - 19.7 -0.8 (7th +6)
Opp Rushing Yd/Game - 112.3 +8.8 (15th -3, meaning they dropped three spots in the rankings)
Opp Yards Per Carry - 3.8 +0.1 (T4th no change)
Opp Passing Yd/Game - 219.9 -16.3 (11th +7)
Opp Yards Per Attempt - 6.9 -0.2 (T10th +4)
Sacks - 33 +11 (T19th +1)
Opp QB Rating - 74.8 -5.7 (6th +5)
Turnovers Forced - 31 +8 (22 INT +6, Fumbles 9 +2)


2 comments :

RScannix said...

* A move that was heavily criticized before the season was letting Hasselbeck depart, and attempting to replace him with TJack and backup Whitehurst. I didn't hate this move, unlike a lot of fans, and I feel like the season validated this sentiment. I thought it was the best move for both Matt and the Seahawks. For Matt, he needed to go to a team with a more solidified O-line situation to avoid getting beat up: he had this in Tennessee, and as a result he had a less injury-filled season. For Seattle, they needed a QB that was more mobile, and if not the QB of the future, then at least someone who could serve as a stop-gap and allow the team to be competitive in most games. Despite his mediocre stats, TJack served this role. I really criticized the offensive play-calling early in the season; during the first 49ers game I even accused Pete of trying to "Suck for Luck." However, it improved as the season went along. I think the use Jackson knew Bates' offense, which I think helped him. He looked decent as long he wasn't being asked to put the game on his shoulders. Perhaps Seattle should be faulted for failing to draft a QB (Andy Dalton comes to mind), but I prefer the acquisition of TJack to the other options available in free agency, if you perform a cost-benefit analysis comparing production to salary (*cough* Kevin Kolb *cough*).

*The running game began to blossom as the season went on, as you mentioned. This was one of the two most positive developments of the 2011 season, along with the growth of the defense. I questioned the dramatic turn toward youth that Carroll made in the off-season, for numerous reason. One, I thought he dis-serviced numerous vets, particularly Tatupu. Despite Lofa's decline on the field, he had been a team leader. In hindsight, it seems that the move wasn't as bad as previously thought. Tatupu didn't latch on to another team, which tells you something about his condition. The defense didn't seem to miss his intangibles either, and many of the young players thrived. Earl Thomas continued to improve, Chancellor and Browner were pleasant surprises. In addition, the D-line turned in some good performances as well, considering their being an amalgamation of cast-offs.

*I find it hard to evaluate the moves on the O-line, because of all the injuries this season. Still not sure about the decision to draft Carpenter at the 21 spot. Considering the turmoil along the front, they held up better than I had expected. Pass protection might be the most needed area of improvement.

*Sidney Rice was a bit of a disappointment, though his injury problems shouldn't have been too surprising considering his time in Minnesota. He did look solid at times, but not often enough considering his contract and reputation.

*The inability to incorporate the TE position into the passing game, though understandable due to the problems on the O-line, was a bit frustrating. Considering that Seattle had not one but two viable pass-catching TEs before the start of the season, to lose Carlson to injury prior to the first game and to have Miller become a virtual non-factor qualifies as a let-down.

Ragnor Relay said...

Thanks for sharing the ranks! I bit they could do more better for this year. :D

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