The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-1 for the first time since 2007. It is only the fifth time in their history that they have won four of their first give games. The wins haven’t all been cheap, either. They went on the road to beat the 49ers in a game Brock Purdy played. They scratched out a win against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Even a win over the Texans is worth some recognition. They added Liam Coen as their new head coach to help unlock Trevor Lawrence and the offense, but it’s been the playmaking defense that has keyed the fast start to the season.

No team has taken the ball away more effectively than the Jaguars. They have had at least three takeaways in four of their five games. They have 10 interceptions, including a 99-yard pick six by breakout star linebacker, Devin Lloyd. He leads the NFL in interceptions with four. It’s rare for a linebacker to have four in a season, let alone in five games.

There are more established players on the defense, like DT Arik Armstead and former #1 overall pick, Travon Walker, but the combination of Lloyd and newcomer Travis Hunter have keyed the rise as a collective unit.

The offense is a little goofy. The quarterback has trouble getting plays off before the play clock expires, makes some questionable decisions, but also has found ways to come up with a big play through the air or with his feet. They are a physical running team that will be far less likely to abandon the run than the Bucs were in Seattle.

Seattle has played well enough to earn some respect around the league, but sit at just 3-2 on the season. They need to beat a quality opponent like the Jaguars on the road because they lost two games against quality opponents at home. The Seahawks get a bit of a break in that the Jags will play on shorter rest after their emotional Monday Night Football victory and before a trip to Europe the following week.

Seattle is the better team. They need to prove it Sunday.

Lineup notes

Jacksonville lost two key members of their offense against the Chiefs. Tight end Brenton Strange has been their leading receiver and their best run blocker. He was put on IR and will miss the game. Starting center Robert Hainsey is also out this week, leaving the starting center job to rookie Jonah Monheim. Monheim had a good showing at the Senior Bowl, and may not be a big drop-off.

Walker was hurt against the 49ers and missed the Chiefs game. It’s unclear if he will return for this game. His presence off the edge would be missed if he is unable to play.

Seattle will be without Derick Hall for the first time. DeMarcus Lawrence is expected to give it a go during practice this week, along with Devon Witherspoon, but it’s unclear if either will play. Julian Love should attempt practicing later in the week, which makes his availability even more tenuous.

Tariq Woolen left the last game with a concussion but seems on track to return this week. If he cannot go, we may see Shaquill Griffin return against his former team if the coaches believe he can offer more than Nehemiah Pritchett.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

Seattle holds a decided advantage in DVOA. This may be the game where the Seahawks run game takes center stage after an electric few weeks through the air. Jacksonville gave up 158 yards rushing to the Chiefs, although a lot of it was to Mahomes. The two running backs averaged over 6 yards per carry. The Jaguars have done an excellent job limiting receiving rooms.

Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense

Jaguars key advantages on defense

Josh Hines-Allen is an elite edge rusher. His 26 pressures leads the team and ranks 5th in the NFL among edge players. Armstead and Lloyd are playmakers as well. Jourdan Lewis has been effective as a nickel back. Hunter is a unique two-way player, who has played fewer than 10 snaps at corner in two games, and playing 25 or more in three games. They are a better defense when he is playing corner.

Turnovers have powered this defense the whole season. Getting 3+ takeaways in four of their five games is incredible production, and almost impossible to sustain. They only got one turnover against the Chiefs, but they made it count with a 99-yard return for a touchdown. Seattle needs to be aware of Lloyd’s presence in the middle of the field, a place Sam Darnold likes to attack.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Jacksonville is primarily a Cover 3 defense. Darnold has been his best against that coverage so far this season, averaging 0.543 EPA/dropback. That coverage tends to leave seams available to attack with tight ends, which could help explain why the Jaguars have struggled to slow that position.

Seattle continues to be the best 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) offense in the NFL. Jacksonville has struggled to slow 12 personnel. The Seahawks have quietly become a Top 10 offense on 3rd downs after starting slowly. The Jaguars have been one of the worst 3rd down defenses in football.

Seattle has a massive advantage in yards per play. The takeaways for the Jags are hiding some weakness in that defense. They are 16th in success rate, meaning offenses are moving the ball effectively when they are not turning the ball over. A good illustration of just how much takeaways are hiding flaws is the Jags ranking 3rd in EPA per dropback on defense, but 21st in success rate per dropback. EPA is highly impacted by turnovers. Success rate is not. All that to say, protect the football, and this efficient Seahawks offense should be able to score on this team.

One other tidbit: the Jags defense is one of the worst in the NFL in defending runs outside the tackles, allowing over 5 yards per carry.

Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Jaguars key advantages on offense

Jacksonville has relied heavily on the run game, and short passing. They have also limited sacks and pressures. Lawrence is a bigger threat when he chooses to use his legs like he did against the Chiefs. That was a bigger part of how that offense won the game than his passing. Travis Etienne Jr. is a tough runner. Brian Thomas Jr. can be a game-changing receiver. Parker Washington has made some good plays and Hunter is shifty after the catch.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Jags seem to still be in the learning phase with this offense. It can look really remedial and slow at times. Lawrence often has trouble getting plays off before the play clock runs out. There is very little downfield with the passing game, and Lawrence has already thrown 5 interceptions against only 6 touchdowns. The receiving group has dropped 14 passes already, with Thomas and Dyami Brown each having 3 drops.

Seattle has been excellent against the run all season. Only one running back has had more than 50 yards rushing against the Seahawks, and that was Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, when it took 22 carries (3.1 yards per rush) to get 69 yards. Etienne has had at least 50 yards rushing in all but one game this season. Given the absence of Strange and Hainsey, the run game could have an even tougher time against this Seahawks front.

Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II have good matchups in this one, as does Boye Mafe. Left tackle, Walker Little, has surrendered 16 pressures on the season, tied for 8th most among all tackles. Mafe should get 1-on-1 matchups all day.

The Seahawks have struggled to get the quarterback on the ground without blitzing. When they have blitzed, they are 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, and 4th in sack rate. Macdonald needs to feel confident in his secondary to bring more blitzes. He should feel more comfortable against this quarterback and offense than he did against the Bucs. Getting a few players back healthy would help.

Special Teams

Washington has been a good punt returner for them. Their kicker can make it from deep. Seattle is still the class of the league on special teams, especially in the return game.

Key to a Jaguars win

Jacksonville needs the same formula to win this game that they’ve used to win others. They need to take the ball away and run the ball effectively. The biggest advantage they may have would be Lawrence breaking the pocket and running himself.

Key to a Seahawks win

This would be a great game to break some trends. Seattle has a chance to create more pressure with blitzes, get the quarterback down, and get their own run game going.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!