The Seahawks hoisted their first Lombardi trophy after vanquising the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. There was no greater rivalry in the NFL at the time. The teams didn’t like each other. The players didn’t like each other. The coaches had history as well. Seattle dominated the matchups for years after that game. San Francisco went in a deep drought. Then it was the 49ers turn to take over lead dog status in the division in 2019 when they came to Lumen Field on the final week of the season, and won a tight game at the goal line with the division and #1 seed on the line.

It is only fitting that these two franchises meet in Week 18 of this season to decide who wins the division and the top seed heading into the playoffs. Seattle has been among the best teams in the NFL most of the year. The 49ers have kept their heads afloat amid a sea of injuries to key players, and now are playing their best football.

Their quarterback has tallied five touchdowns in each of his past two games, and is playing at an MVP level. Kyle Shanahan is the favorite to win Coach of the Year, and Robert Saleh could take the title of Assistant Coach of the Year with how he has cobbled together a winning defense with spare parts.

Injuries could play a key role in this one as both teams have important players trying to get healthy in time to play on a short week. That is nothing new for either team as both have had to play with missing starters all season.

Their first game was all the way back in Week 1, and offers limited lessons. Nick Bosa won the game with a strip sack. Fred Warner shut down the Seahawks run game almost single-handedly. Neither player is walking through the door anytime soon. Seattle lost Nick Emmanwori after just a few snaps. Uchenna Nwosu was not playing yet, and Klint Kubiak ran an outlier game plan that involved just one play-action pass. That was 4.2% of pass attempts. Seattle has been over 20% play-action passes in nearly every game since.

What will transfer from that game is the elusiveness of Brock Purdy. Seattle put him under pressure on a career-high 60% of his dropbacks. Purdy was only sacked once, as he ducked, dodged, and dipped his way around Seahawks defenders to create for his offense. They managed to convert 50% of their 3rd downs, including both of their touchdowns. It was not all good for Purdy.

He threw multiple interceptions, and it took Tariq Woolen’s two worst coverage plays of the year on the final drive to put 17 points on the board. Mike Macdonald’s defense frustrated Shanahan and Purdy. It was not the first time. Purdy has faced a Macdonald defense four times since 2023, and has thrown 7 interceptions. That includes 3 in the last two matchups.

Part of the limited success Purdy had came as a result of Ty Okada being asked to step into a role he was not really equipped to play when Emmanwori went down. George Kittle’s touchdown was a good example. Macdonald had to scramble to change a game plan that heavily relied on Emmanwori’s unique skills. They very nearly pulled it off.

Both teams are in very different places now. San Francisco is white hot on offense. The Seahawks are now the hunted, as the team with the most wins, best point differential, and top DVOA ranking. They have won every game on the road but one, and barely lost that one. They have won with explosive offense, overwhelming defense, elite special teams, and an emerging run game. Opponents have no chance when all those parts show up in the same game, as evidenced by the league-leading number of blowouts and 30+ point halves.

What may be the deciding factor in this one is how Seattle has needed to win the past six weeks, when they have not been firing on all cylinders. There have been turnovers, and slow starts, and more turnovers. Seattle gave up nearly 600 yards just two weeks ago. Yet, they have won every one of those games.

San Francisco has won six in a row as well, but the nature of those games have been different. The 49ers have barely punted. They have scored at least 37 points in the last three games, and four of the six. They have been ahead 67% of the time, compared to Seattle being ahead just 33% over the same period. The Seahawks had been the biggest frontrunners in the league for the first 10 weeks.

Shanahan and the 49ers have not been able to score more than 17 points against Macdonald and this defense the last two times they played. They will need more than that to overcome a deeply flawed defense that have given up at least 24 points the last three games. San Francisco is the more complete offense, with more ways to score. Seattle is the more complete team, with more ways to win. The trials they have gone through to overcome when things are not going well might be the difference against a team that has had only success on offense for weeks. Purdy was able to will his team to a win last time. He will be facing a team that has collectively willed their team to 13 wins this time.

Lineup Notes

There are tons of changes from the first game. You will be forgiven if you forgot the MVS era in San Francisco. Demarcus Robinson was suspended early on and has now become a valuable part of the 49ers receiving room. He has a penchant for big plays. Kittle played in the first game, but did leave with an injury. He is injured coming into this one, but is expected to play. Trent Williams is the big one to watch for the 49ers. He hurt his hamstring on the first play against the Bears and was ruled out quickly. Best guess is he will not play, forcing the 49ers to play Austen Pleasants at left tackle.

Another player to watch is Renardo Green, who has missed two games with a neck injury. He has been practicing but not playing. He is an important part of a thin secondary. Darrell Luter Jr. is not the same level of cover corner. Upton Stout is a spark plug at nickel corner, but left the Bears game with a concussion. Chase Lucas is a huge step down if Stout cannot go.

Keion White is another addition for the 49ers on the defensive line. His availability is questionable after getting injured against the Bears.

Malik Mustapha was not yet healthy the first time these teams played. He’s a big hitter and a play maker. Ji’Ayir Brown has stepped up as he had a chance to get back on the field.

The biggest question had been whether Rashid Shaheed would make it back from a concussion for this game. Now, the Seahawks released an injury report that listed Josh Jones as not practicing. If he and Charles Cross cannot go, undrafted free agent rookie Amari Kight could get the call. That would be a massive concern for Seattle.

Coby Bryant may not be ready to return. If he isn’t, Ty Okada will be back in the lineup and has proven his worth. The availability of Emmanwori represents a big boost compared to the first game.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

This paints a clear picture in favor of Seattle. It is worth noting these are full season rankings, and the 49ers have played at a much higher level the last few weeks on offense. Still, the 49ers defense has not been playing better, and that is where some of the biggest advantages show up.

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense

49ers key advantages on defense

Saleh is the 49ers advantage on defense. He is an excellent coach, who gets everything out of his players. He outcoached Kubiak in the first game and has the potential to do that again. Saleh designs his defense to limit explosives, which San Francisco has done well. The problem is it also relies on a four man pass rush that has a guy like Bosa to effect the passer. Bryce Huff is their best pass rusher, and has 42 pressures on the year. He would be licking his chops against Kight if that matchup materializes.

Deommodore Lenoir talks a lot for a player who has allowed a 104.2 passer rating on the season, including 5 TDs and just 2 picks. Still, he is their best coverage player in the secondary and might match up on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

White can be a good pass rusher now and then from the inside. Rookie CJ West barely played in Week 1 and has shown some flashes in increased reps of late.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Seattle is a Top 10 rushing offense, by EPA, since Week 10. They have put up over 170 yards rushing three times in eight games, and over 125 yards rushing six times. The 49ers are 2-3 when allowing more than 125 yards on the ground.

Both Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are playing their best football of the season. Seattle has been getting more explosive plays out of the run game. They have an explosive rush rate (12+ yard runs) of over 11% in three of their past four games after registering just one such game in the previous seven contests.

It might not feel like it, but there has been some recovery in the explosive pass game as well. The team had been hitting explosive passes over 21% of the times they attempted a pass in the first half of the season. That was cut in half in Weeks 11-13. While not quite back to the 20%+ pace, they have averaged over 15% the last four games. That, combined with the growth in explosive rushes, has helped their overall explosive play rate rise to roughly 13%, which is close to where they were earlier on.

The Seahawks inability to run in the first matchup combined with a lack of confidence in pass protection to drag down the whole offense. Seattle scored a season-low 13 points in that game. They have not scored fewer than 18 points since. They have only scored under 20 points three times.

Even with the offensive challenges since Week 12, Seattle has scored on 50% of their possessions, which is 5th-best in the league over that span.

The 49ers defense ranks 27th in DVOA. Seattle has played four defenses that rank 20th or worse (Carolina, Arizona, Washington, Tennessee). They scored 27, 44, 38, and 30 points against those teams (34.8 ppg).

Seattle should score more than 25 points in this one, something they’ve already done 11 times.

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

49ers key advantages on offense

Purdy is slippery and smart. He not only extends plays, but finds open players while on the run, or takes off for productive gains. Ricky Pearsall is an excellent receiver when healthy. He has been nursing a knee injury, but made a solid contribution against the Bears. Kittle is a game wrecker in the run game as a blocker and as a receiver.

The offensive line has been doing their best work lately, both in pass protection and run blocking. Christian McCaffrey has not been as explosive as past years, but is a workhorse who is equally dangerous as a receiver or a runner. Jauan Jennings makes big catches as a trusted target and is a great blocker.

Shanahan and Purdy are operating as one mind. No offense is playing better than San Francisco heading into this game.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Would you believe Sam Darnold has a lower interception rate than his 49er counterpart? It’s true. Purdy has a 3.5% interception rate, which ranks 3rd-highest behind only Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith. Darnold is next at 3.1%. Macdonald has been one of the guys to induce turnovers from Purdy.

As well as the 49ers have been playing on offense, they have beaten up on a lot of bad defenses. When they have played a quality defense during this stretch, the results have been a bit different. Seattle ranks #1 in defensive DVOA. The Browns rank 5th and were the only quality defense San Francisco played since Purdy has been back. They scored 26 points in that game, which seems pretty good. Look closer.

Their scoring drives were: 16 yards, 18 yards, 29 yards, 32 yards, 58 yards. Purdy was 16 for 29 for 168 yards and 1 touchdown. McCaffrey ran for 53 yards on 20 carries. They totalled 253 yards, 3.9 yards per play, 0.009 EPA per play, and a 34.4% success rate. Those are paltry offensive numbers. For comparison, the Seahawks offense that has given so many people pause has not had a success rate that low in any of their games since Week 11. They’ve been over 40% in all but one.

This doesn’t mean the 49ers are doomed to the same result against Seattle, but this is a better defense with more to play for, that has already proven they can slow this offense down.

Seattle manhandled the 49ers offensive line in Week 1. Trent Williams was driven back multiple times by Derick Hall, who will be returning from a one-game suspension for this game. Nwosu was not available in that one, and is a big upgrade in run defense and pass rush to what they had. Ty Okada and Drake Thomas are smart and prepared.

Leonard Williams has been used to neutralize Trent Williams at times. The potential absence of the 49ers left tackle could create a vulnerability for Seattle to exploit and more freedom to deploy their game-wrecking defensive tackle across the line.

This defense enters this game feeling they have unfinished business. They know they are the tip of the spear for the team, and have a bad taste in their mouths from the poor performance against the Rams. This is a talented, highly motivated, and well-coached crew.

Special Teams

The 49ers special teams have had a resurgent season. They are not quite the unit that Seattle has, but they have helped the 49ers overachieve. Their kicking game is not a joke anymore, and Sky Moore helps their return game. The availability of Shaheed looms large here. Cam Akers was a little loose with the football on his returns against Carolina.

Key to a 49ers win

The formula is pretty simple: score 30+ points. A 49ers offense that overwhelms the Seahawks defense is their best recipe for a win. A special teams play could be critical as well.

Key to a Seahawks win

The Seahawks need to keep Purdy in the pocket and limit his off-script plays. That is more important than actually sacking him. That, plus an effective run game on offense puts Seattle in a good spot to take one more on the road.