Tale of the Tape: Seahawks Eye Zombie 49ers

The undead are fascination among the living. Life after death permeates wide corners of society, ranging from religion to Hollywood monster stories about Frankenstein, vampires, and zombies. Sam Darnold has been left for dead multiple times in his career. He climbed out of a career grave last season, and while he walks among the living now, the specter of his past follows him like a toxic cloud. Players like Leonard Williams, Julian Love, and DeMarcus Lawrence have only known an early demise. They have never been part of a team this good, that has the potential to go this far.

The 49ers, though, have taken the undead bit further than any author would deem believable. They have been sentenced to death repeatedly throughout the season as player-after-player was lost to injury. That continued a week ago as star tight end, George Kittle, ruptured his achilles. Part of the allure of the undead is the notion that life can continue through the greatest conceivable trauma. There is also a mercy in ending the suffering of the decaying animated corpses who mindlessly wander the land of the living.

Seattle looks to their resurrected stars to finally end this 49ers season. They have advantages on the field and in the stands that are large enough to warrant a seven-point spread in Vegas. There is no credible analysis that can point to why the 49ers should win. There is intangible evidence that says they certainly can. Divisional games are often close. Teams with good quarterbacks and good coaches rarely go down easily. Seattle is unproven in the playoffs. Those are all stories. The Seahawks have the opportunity to write a different tale.

Lineup Notes

There are some substantial changes to the lineup even though these teams played a couple weeks ago. Trent Williams returns for the 49ers. Ricky Pearsall is the big name to watch. He is listed as questionable for the game with a PCL injury, and his availability is truly up in the air. He may play but not last, as any falls on that knee cause significant pain and inflammation, per those reporting on the injury. George Kittle is out, so Luke Farrell will get some tight end snaps.

The 49ers linebackers have been completely switched out. Veteran Eric Kendricks played his first game last week versus the Eagles. Garrett Wallow joined him. Dee Winters is listed as questionable, but the expectation is Wallow will start again. Fred Warner practiced some, but will not play in the game. Finally, Ji’Ayir Brown is out with a hamstring injury so rookie Marques Sigle will start at safety. He started Week 1 against the Seahawks.

Seattle gets back Charles Cross at left tackle. Although, he is nursing a new knee injury and will wear a brace. Coby Bryant is back at safety.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

These are numbers from the end of the regular season. Seattle finishes with the rare trifecta of #1 defense, #1 pass defense, #1 rush defense. This picture told the tale heading into the last matchup where the Seahawks looked like the far superior team the whole night. We will find out if that remains the case in this game.

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense

49ers key advantages on defense

Robert Saleh is their biggest advantage. He’s smart and working miracles with a defense thin on talent. Upton Stout is a playmaker at nickel corner. Kendricks is a vet. Bryce Huff is their best pass rusher. C.J. West has been good, at times, in defending the run.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The key question coming into this one is the health of Darnold. He injured his oblique in practice this week. He is expected to play, but we will know if the injury will impact his performance or how Klint Kubiak calls the game until kickoff.

Seattle rushed for 180 yards the last time these teams played. Saleh has to be prioritizing how to slow down the run. That presents prime opportunities for Seattle to rediscover their explosive passing attack, but only if Darnold is healthy enough to take advantage.

Jaxon Smith-Nijigba and Rashid Shaheed have significant advantages over the 49ers secondary. There are a lot of reasons why this game may feature far more passing than the last one. The performances of Darnold’s receivers and A.J. Barner will be crucial.

The Seahawks offensive line was a major advantage last time. A repeat performance is the best path toward a comfortable win.

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

49ers key advantages on offense

Purdy is a dangerous playmaker. Seattle did an excellent job of limiting his escapes from the pocket, and forcing him to play within structure. They played so well, it was almost perfect. It is hard to be perfect twice. Expect more improvisation from Purdy in this one.

A return of Pearsall could be a major addition if he is able to play close to his normal self. Williams can still move people in the run game. Seattle stonewalled Christian McCaffrey last time. He may have more room to maneuver in this one.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle is the best defense in football, with no true weaknesses. The 49ers felt that in the loss in Levi’s Stadium. Seattle has the coverage talent, and the pass rush talent, and the run defense talent, and the coaching talent to make life miserable for offenses.

Leonard Williams may spend some time neutralizing Trent Williams, which can lead to some other shifts along the line. Expect the 49ers to slide protection help away from the left side to help right tackle Colton McKivitz. Trent Williams has been more vulnerable than many realize. He gave up the most pressures against the Eagles last week on the team, and the only team that has created that much pressure when facing him this year is the Seahawks. Seattle winning the trench battle again would make it very tough for the 49ers to put up points.

Special Teams

If the game is close, special teams could certainly play a role. Jason Myers missed two kicks in the last game. Eddy Pineiro missed a kick against the Eagles. Both Shaheed and 49er returner Skyy Moore are capable to shifting field position. The Seahawks advantage at punter and punt coverage could be big.

Key to a 49ers win

San Francisco has to get 3+ yards on early down runs instead of the 0-2 yards they got last time, and they have to create some turnovers. Scoring early would go a long way toward making this a close game.

Key to a Seahawks win

Seattle needs to use the crowd noise to their advantage on defense and avoid communication issues that have sometimes occurred at home. Darnold needs to connect on some explosive passes to put Saleh in a true bind about whether he can stop both the Seahawks emerging rushing attack and their weapons through the air.