Many Seahawks fans seem to be vacillating between being overly pessimistic (after the Bucs loss) and overly optimistic (after the Jags win). There is a sense that the Houston Texans will be pushovers on Monday Night Football. After all, this is the team that paid Laken Tomlinson to start for them and traded away Laremy Tunsil. While it is true the Seahawks have some clear advantages, there might not be a team Seattle faces the rest of the season that is better equipped to frustrate Klint Kubiak, Sam Darnold, and this offense.
It starts with understanding what has been working for the Seahawks offense through six weeks. In particular, hitting explosive passes at a dizzying rate.
There has been a formula to Seattle leading the NFL in explosive pass rate. The key elements have been:
- True commitment to the run even when it is not gaining much yardage
- Keeping more players in to help in pass protection when they do pass
- Excellent play action that looks and feels exactly like a run
- Ability for Seahawks receivers, JSN especially, to win even if there are only two receivers running routes
- Near-perfect decision-making and accuracy by Darnold
- Very few turnover-worthy risks by Darnold
- Better offensive line play
- Faster time to throw by Darnold
The Seahawks are going to run the ball whether it is effective or not because it forces the defense to honor those, which opens up opportunity in the pass game. Seattle has the highest early-down EPA per dropback in the NFL. They pass the ball on early downs less than all but two other teams (Lions and Jets). This combination helps them lead the NFL in play-action yards per attempt by a mile (14.8 YPA).
The perfect defense to mess that all up would involve having an elite pass rush that can beat double teams, savvy linebackers and safeties that can recognize play-action, and great cover corners who can eliminate two-man routes. Meet the Houston Texans.
No team in the NFL has a better edge rush duo than Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Each player would require a pass protection plan if they were alone on the roster. Having one on each side is almost unfair. They also have effective interior pass rush with Sheldon Rankins.
Houston is the best defense in the NFL at defending play-action. They are tops by EPA/dropback and opponent passer rating.
Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are one of the best duos are corner. Few teams will be able to trust their corners to hold up in coverage more than Houston. The secondary has also intercepted passes at the fourth-highest rate in the league.
One thing they do not do well is defend the outside zone run game. The Texans are in the lower third of the league in stopping runs outside the tackles. That could mean Seattle has a better chance to get their run game going, which could alleviate the pressure on their pass game.
Still, the Texans have to like their chances to force Darnold to make more uncomfortable throws than he has all year, and cause some turnovers.
Stingley is one of only a handful of corners in the NFL who has a shot to defend JSN one-on-one. If he is less available to Darnold, that will either lead to more throws to other receivers or forced throws into tight windows. There is a good chance those tight window throws will come while the Texans pass rush is bearing down on him. Bad things tend to happen in those situations.
It is certainly not a hopeless situation for Seattle. They have faced two of the other elite play-action pass defenses already this season in Pittsburgh and Jacksonville and won both games. They hit explosive plays on play-action in both contests, but Darnold has also thrown two interceptions on those dropbacks as well.
Staying on schedule will be key. Seattle is not setup to be a 3rd and long offense. In fact, they are dead last in the NFL in converting 3rd and 7+ yards at only 12.5%.
They will need the run game in this one more than almost any other game, and will have to hit enough explosives to outscore a Houston offense that will be facing their own nightmare in the Seahawks defense.
Seattle is favored to win this game, and they should be, but anyone who thinks this is a walk in the park is going to be disappointed when this game is close or lacking appreciation for the obstacle overcome if it is not.