Seattle enters a Monday Night Football matchup with the Houston Texans as team that has proven they can be elite in all three phases of the game. Their only two losses have come when leading in the fourth quarter at home against quality opponents. The two aspects of their team that have been most consistent through the season has been stellar run defense and a remarkably explosive passing game.

One of the teams standing in their way is the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams feature an elite pass rush, led by great edge rushers, a determined run game built on a physical gap blocking scheme, and a quality passing attack led by a good quarterback with at least on elite receiver. Seattle does not play the Rams this week, but the Texans are an excellent proxy.

Houston features the best edge rush duo in the NFL with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. They run a gap scheme rushing attack at the same rate as the Rams, and rely on a great quarterback and wide receiver duo in C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins. There is no question this game represents the toughest test for the Seahawks offense since Week 1 against the 49ers.

The Texans are a flawed and limited team on offense, largely due to poor pass protection, but few teams will be able to score many points against this defense. Even the dynamic Bucs offense was held to 20 points, and that included a touchdown with six seconds remaining in the game. No team has scored more than that. The Rams managed only 14 points. The Jaguars, only 17 points.

Seattle has scored 20 or more points in every game since Week 1, when they deployed an unrecognizable offensive game plan. There are some similarities, though, with that 49ers defense. Both teams play a 4-3 defense that the Seahawks do not see as often given that their own defense plays a 3-4 alignment. Head Coach DeMeco Ryans came from the 49ers. San Francisco had elite edge rush, at the time, with Nick Bosa. They had a quality cover corner in Deommodore Lenoir. Houston even has a former 49er playing linebacker in Azeez Al-Shair.

The Seahawks offense has dominated with play-action. They only tried one play-action pass against the 49ers, and it was an explosive play. They are averaging an obscene 14.8 yards per play-action attempt. Houston has been the best defense in the NFL in defending play-action (-0.463 EPA/dropback). Seattle did play the 4th (Pittsburgh) and 6th (Jacksonville) best play-action defenses in the NFL and managed to hit explosive plays against both of them.

This is the type of game the Seahawks need to win in order to have a real shot at making noise in the NFC. It will be physical. It will be close. Seattle has a bigger advantage against the Houston offense than the Texans defense has against the Seahawks offense. That should be enough to win the game. They have to prove it is.

Lineup notes

Seahawks fans hoping to see Laken Tomlinson at left guard for the Texans will be disappointed to find out he has been benched in favor of Juice Scruggs. Scruggs took over the starting role going into the game against the Ravens and will remain there.

Houston is missing one of their better run defenders in DT Folorunso Fatukasi. Tommy Togiai takes his place and is much lighter. They are also without a tight end (Cade Stover) and a fullback (Jakob Johnson).

Joe Mixon is still out. Nick Chubb is their starting back. Former Seahawks Mario Edwards and Darrell Taylor get some snaps on defense.

Seattle may get back some of their starting secondary, but we will not know until Thursday if any of them are practicing as the team has pushed back their practice schedule due to the game being a day later.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

The Texans beat up on some bad teams and lost to some good teams. That has DVOA treating them kindly with a Top 10 overall ranking. Their offense is middling, at best, while their defense is elite. It is worth noting the Texans excel at defending running backs as receivers out of the backfield.

Seahawks Offense vs Texans Defense

Texans key advantages on defense

Oh boy. Both Hunter and Anderson rank among the Top 5 in ESPN’s edge rusher pass rush win rate. They are also both Top 5 in PFF’s edge rusher pass rush grade, with marks above 90, which indicates All-Pro level performance. Nobody else has two edge players who have been that lethal. Sheldon Rankins has been effective rushing the passer on the interior, with a 73 grade as a pass rusher and a good ranking in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. There is no place to hide against this group.

Part of their pass rush effectiveness is Derek Stingley Jr., who is one of the best cover corners in the game. Kamari Lassiter is a good corner as well. When you mesh great cornerback play with elite pass rush, it is a hard recipe to overcome for any passing game.

Expect Stingley to travel with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and try to take away the Seahawks top weapon. Klint Kubiak has been great at using motion and formations to get JSN more advantageous match-ups, but the Texans can spoil that by having Stingley follow. Of course, the Seahawks have been highly effective against man coverage (4th-best in the NFL), so do not expect Seattle to avoid throwing against these looks.

Houston will hope to get a chance to pick off a pass, which they have done at the 4th-highest rate in the league.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Seattle has built their offense on the outside zone. Houston has struggled to slow that type of run this season. They rank 30th in the NFL in EPA/rush on runs outside the tackles, and 25th in DVOA in defending outside zone runs. Look for Ryans to try and mimic what Robert Saleh did to challenge the outside zone runs in Week 1, with more down linemen, but the Texans do not have Fred Warner. They also are just less effective as run stuffers.

Stingley and their safeties have struggled with missed tackles, which shows up in these outside runs. This is a game where Kenneth Walker III looms large. The Seahawks offense has been notably better when he is on the field. They average more yards per play, have a higher EPA/play, a higher success rate, and average more points per drive. The splitting of carries with Zach Charbonnet is hurting the team.

We will see if the coaching staff is more willing to lean on Walker with the bye week coming up.

Seattle is the best 12 personnel team in the NFL, rushing and passing the ball well with two tight ends. Houston has been one of the best in defending that personnel group. The Seahawks tight ends have been particularly good in pass protection, and they will definitely be asked to help out against these edge rushers.

The Seahawks have to feel good about JSN versus anyone right now. This could be a game where they feature Cooper Kupp more against some of the linebackers who are heavier and built for inside run defense more than pass coverage. Elijah Arroyo could try to run by the linebackers or safeties as well.

Texans Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Texans key advantages on offense

The Texans have the highest explosive play rate versus zone coverage in the NFL. Seattle plays a lot of zone coverage. If their secondary is still injured, that will only increase the amount of zone Macdonald employs. That could be the difference in what almost certainly will be a close game.

Collins is a big and gifted receiver who still does not get the recognition he deserves. He is one of the best receivers Seattle will play this season. Stroud throws a gorgeous ball, and is a savvy passer. He can struggle with decision-making and accuracy at times.

The right side of the offensive line is stable and better than what the Seahawks went up against in Jacksonville.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The left side of the Texans offensive line is weaker than almost any Seattle has faced to this point. Rookie Aireonte Ersery is a major project as a pass protector and Scruggs is a former center who is now trying guard. But what really stands out about the Texans pass protection problems is they are allowing the highest pressure rate in the NFL by non-offensive linemen. In other words, their running backs and tight ends have been atrocious in pass protection.

Macdonald has led the Seahawks to the 3rd-best unblocked pressure rate in the NFL, meaning he is well-equipped to isolate their running backs and tight ends in having to pick up a free rusher. He should not even have to blitz, but he might want to. Stroud has the lowest passing grade by PFF in the NFL when blitzed. The Texans are also 31st in explosive pass rate versus man.

Macdonald should be spoiled for choice in creating his pass rush plan as the Seahawks front four can win their matchups, but there will also be ample opportunity to send Nick Emmawori or Devon Witherspoon (if healthy) or Ernest Jones IV if he chooses.

The Texans have not won a game when they rush for fewer than 114 yards. Seattle has only allowed one team to rush for over that mark, the 49ers.

Seattle should be able to deploy their light boxes with extra guys in coverage and still stop the run while wreaking havor in the pass rush. They should not allow more than 17 points in this one.

Special Teams

Expect a lot of fields in this game. Houston has kicked the most 50+ yarders in the league.

Key to a Texans win

If Houston can erase JSN with Stingley and rush the passer, they will have a good chance to catch Darnold trying to force a throw and turning it over.

Key to a Seahawks win

Seattle’s best chance to win will be if they can exploit the Texans weakness in defending the outside zone running game. That would reduce pressure on the pass game and pass protection and decrease the odds of a turnover. Short of that, the defense holding down the Texans offense and ideally getting a turnover or two should be enough.

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