Our daily lives are often predictable. We have our morning routine, go to school or to work, and have our evening routing. It can be mundane. One of the wonders of sport is the unpredictability. No matter how much someone knows about the game, how many hours they have watched it, played it, studied it, they cannot predict what will happen. The entire gambling industry depends on it. That does not mean, however, that the information gathered from a game has no future predictive value. Strengths and weaknesses are exposed. Certain matchups reveal a challenge or advantage. The Seahawks lost a critical game to the Rams on Sunday. Most people will take one thing away from the game. They won’t even get that one thing right. They will also miss out on a far more intricate picture.
Sam Darnold Feeds The Trolls
Sam Darnold entered this game as part of the MVP conversation and with a reputation for failing in big moments against elite teams. He leaves this game with one of those things, and not the one he would want. We will come back to that reputation in a second. People will point to the game against the Lions and the Rams in the playoffs last year and say this was more of the same. Those people are wrong. This was much, much, worse.
Darnold was infamously sacked nine times in the playoffs against the Rams last year. I went back and watched that entire game and focused on each sack. You can see the thread here:
It was pretty clear that while Darnold took the fall (literally) for the outcome, the play calls by the coaching staff and poor performance of the players around him were bigger factors. Receivers were not open. No check-down options were designed into the plays. Pass blockers did not block. Darnold held the ball too long a few times and made some questionable decisions, but it was not the shameful game it is made out to be. This was.
Darnold started the game with his worst interception of the season. It was an atrocious decision that never had even a small chance of being completed. He has almost completely avoided those this year. He went on to make three more turnovers that all represented terrible judgment. He nearly had a fifth, but his hand was ruled to be moving forward when it was hit by Jared Verse.
Pass pressure played a role in at least three of the interceptions. Overall, though, pass protection was not a huge issue. Seattle wound up giving up no sacks, just three QB hits, and an acceptable 28.9% pressure rate. The Vikings gave up a 52.0% pressure rate in the game against the Rams last year.
This was almost completely on Darnold for making desperate decisions that prioritized the wrong things. He acknowledged as much after the game, noting that taking a sack or throwing it away is sometimes the best play.
One bad decision can cost a team a football game. That is why the QB position gets paid so much. What can never happen is to compound one bad decision with two, or three, or four.
Darnold’s inability to made the adjustment in the game is troubling, and arguably the most damning aspect of this performance. One of the attributes that makes him such a special player at times is his unrelenting confidence that allows him to attempt (and complete) throws many quarterbacks could not make, and his goldfish memory that moves on quickly from mistakes to keep attacking. Those same attributes lead to insanity in games where he tries the same thing and expects different results.
Had he made a correction after the first, second, or third interception, the Seahawks are very likely leading the division right now. This team’s season and future might hinge on his ability to learn that lesson.
This notion that these problems happen consistently in big games against elite teams or defenses is far too simplistic. Ask Packers fans whether Darnold wilted in their two big games against Minnesota last year when he threw a combined 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions during two wins. Or 49ers fans who saw him beat their team early before their season fell apart. Or the Texans, when Darnold threw 4 TDs and 0 picks last year. He had a 103.5 passer rating in the first game against the Lions last year. Or, hey, do you know any Seahawks fans who watched him throw 3 TDs and 0 INTs against the Seahawks in a primetime game?
It is not about big games. It is about judgment and adjustments.
Leaders Emerge
This game mattered more to Ernest Jones Jr. than others. The Rams refused to pay him and traded him away. It would be easy for him to be upset at Darnold for giving the game away. He took a different tone.
“Sam’s been having us in every fucking game,” Jones said in his postgame press conference. “So for him to sit there and say, ‘Oh, that’s my fault.’ No, it’s not. “It’s football. Man, he’s our quarterback. We got his back. And you got anything to say? Quite frankly, fuck you.”
In a moment when the team could have fractured, Jones may have pulled them closer together. Consider the juxtaposition between this game and the 6-6 tie in Arizona during the Legion of Boom era when the defense had done much more than their share to win. You could feel the animosity from one side of the ball toward their quarterback after that one. It was understandable given how much they had endured physically and how much they had been let down.
The Seahawks defense was not quite as infallible in this game, where they gave up some big plays and long-ish drives in the first quarter before shutting the door on the Rams the rest of the way. Still, they bailed out the offense time and again. Only two of the four interceptions resulted in points.
Jones’ press conference was immediately following Darnold’s and they passed each other as Jones made his way down the hall to the podium. He looked at his quarterback as they approached each other and said, “I got you,” before delivering his soliloquy.
He was not alone in backing his signal caller.
Mike Macdonald was predictably supportive of Darnold. You would expect that of any coach. But the difference in messaging between him and his predecessor was stark.
“Keep ripping it, man,” Macdonald said when asked what his message was to his quarterback. “We love you and we’ve got your back.”
Where Pete Carroll would preach protecting the football and responded to a slate of Russell Wilson interceptions in 2020 by pulling the reins on what had been a record-setting season, Macdonald showed no hesitation in emphasizing his desire for Darnold to keep being aggressive.
This is not new. When Darnold had a very shaky first day of OTAs in the spring, Macdonald chided Mike Salk of Seattle Sports Radio about the idea that he would criticize his quarterback for turning the ball over. He made it clear that he never wants his players to have doubt in their approach. He wants them to play with confidence and aggression and trust that they will work on correcting errors along the way.
It is unclear whether Darnold can make the corrections necessary to become a quarterback who can lead his team to a championship. The authentic support of his teammates and coaches, saying it with their full chest, creates the best possible environment for it to happen. Don’t be surprised if we look back at that quote from Jones as a defining moment in the season.
Red Zone Spotlight
Somewhat lost in the onslaught of terrible turnovers was the disparity in red zone performance between the two teams. Seattle finished 1-4, and started 0-3. The Rams started 0-1, and finished 3-4. That was technically the difference in the game. If the Seahawks get one more conversion, they win. If the Rams get one fewer conversion, Seattle wins. If both happen, Seattle wins relatively comfortably.
Coaching Stalemate
Sean McVay is considered by many to be the best coach in football. He is smart, innovative, and constantly winning. Seahawks fans know this all too well, as he has badly out-coached his Seattle counterparts for years. Macdonald was hired, in part, to be McVay’s foil.
One of the many subplots to this game was whether Macdonald could stymie McVay and whether Klint Kubiak could counter Chris Shula. It did not start well for Seattle.
McVay was able to gash the Seahawks defense on some tight end screens and running plays. He also made clever use of no-huddle to keep Seattle’s defense from communicating pre-snap the way they like to do. Meanwhile, Shula was taking away anything easy from the Seattle offense.
Down 14-3, it was looking like Los Angeles was again the dominant coaching room in the division.
Unlike his quarterback, Macdonald made adjustments. The Rams had just 105 yards on 29 plays (3.6 yards per play) after the first quarter. Matt Stafford, the leader for MVP, finished with just 130 yards passing on 28 attempts. He has had just one other game in his long career with that many attempts and so few yards. Los Angeles finished 2-11 on 3rd downs. Davante Adams had just one catch for one yard. That had not happened since 2015.
The only other time Macdonald and McVay really squared off last year was in Seattle. The Week 18 game in Los Angeles was not representative when the players knew it did not matter. In the first game, the Rams managed just 13 points in regulation on offense and were 3-13 on 3rd downs. That is 5-24 on 3rd downs in two games.
It was unsettling enough that LA reporters were asking Macdonald postgame what he did to make Stafford look so bad. The Rams felt relieved to win, knowing they were unable to close it out on offense.
Much was made of the 13 personnel (1 back, 3 tight ends) that McVay had been using heading into this game that had been eviscerating opponents. Seattle held that personnel package to just 2.7 yards per play.
Knowing that the Seahawks have a coach who can trade blows with McVay is encouraging. These two may be battling for years to come.
Shula largely won his match with Kubiak. He played dime defense (6 defensive backs) on over 50% of the snaps. This seemed to stymie the Seattle passing attack. Still, the Seahawks wound up dominating the yardage totals, finished with 414 yards to just 249 for the Rams. They also ran the ball well. Kenneth Walker III, in particular, was dangerous out of the backfield as a runner or receiver. He had what appeared to be a crucial touchdown before it was called back for a holding penalty on rookie tight end Nick Kallerup.
Macdonald did this without Jarran Reed or Julian Love. Reed’s absence was felt on the early rushing success of the Rams. Love is due back after the Titans game. This defense is passing every test.
Offensively, Kubiak did not seem to really have an answer for the coverage and disguises the Rams put out there. Rashid Shaheed started to make his presence felt and nearly had a big touchdown before Emmanuel Forbes made a brilliant play to bat down the pass.
To his credit, they did put together a great 84-yard touchdown drive and then a 56-yard drive to give them a shot to kick a game-winning field goal.
This was a terrific chess match. The sequels should be mesmerizing.
The Mess of the Rest
There was a grab bag of other important items in this game. Most important was the injury to Grey Zabel. Every finger and toe is crossed in the Pacific Northwest that Zabel escaped without a season-ending injury. If the news is bad, the Seahawks will likely insert Christian Haynes into the lineup. That is who stepped in when Zabel went down in this one.
Haynes has been disappointing since being drafted in the third round last season. He has not stood out as a pass blocker or a run blocker to this point. He lost his job to Anthony Bradford, who has been the most problematic linemen for Seattle this season. Zabel has been terrific on and off the field as a rookie. Losing Zabel would be far more troubling than losing this game. Haynes had some bad moments in that final drive, but they were able to move the ball with him in there.
Clock management was a problem on that final drive. Seattle let precious time tick off the clock after completing a pass over the middle. Darnold then chose to extend a play by scrambling and burned another seven seconds. Those two choices cost the team at least 20 seconds of clock. Using a timeout earlier or simply making a quicker choice to throw the ball away could have given the team the time it needed to win the game.
The four interceptions. The leaky early run defense. The touchdown called back for holding. The pass breakup on another touchdown. The bad clock management. Even with all of those things, the Seahawks probably win this game if the Rams punter doesn’t hit a miraculous punt that bounces out at the 1-yard line. Crazy game.
Where Now?
Leonard Williams talked during training camp about how great teams always face adversity a couple of times during the season. Their ability to respond to it defines them. Seattle exits this game with a lot to overcome. Set aside the talk of first round byes and division titles. Not because those things are out of reach, but because what matters is how the Seahawks address their own shortcomings.
A team with a version of Darnold that can limit those crippling mistakes can win against any team on any field. Nobody should have confidence that he can become that player until he does it repeatedly. Beating the Colts in Seattle would be a start. Beating the Rams in Seattle would be big. Winning in the playoffs is ultimately what will start to truly change not only the outside narrative but his certainty in himself.
Macdonald pointed to his team’s youth (and his own) as a competitive advantage after the game. He sees their ability to grow and improve. They fell short in this game. The fire it will light in that locker room may cause a growth spurt that will make this team far harder to handle by the time the season finishes. Nobody can predict what happens next.