The two best teams in football square off on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. Preseason favorites like the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, Packers, 49ers, and Lions, have all stubbed their toes and generally looked less impressive than most anticipated. Seattle and Los Angeles have had a couple of losses apiece that they easily could have won, and have spent more time playing with a lead this season than any other teams in the NFL.

That might lead you to believe that the Seahawks are only able to play with a lead. It turns out they are the top offense in football when playing from behind or when the score is tied. Their efficiency drops to 25th when they have a lead. That should help explain some of the frustration Seahawks fans have felt when the team had trouble closing teams out after getting early leads.

Turnovers have played a large role in that inefficiency. Seattle has given the ball away at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Only 5 of their 16 turnovers have come in the first half. The majority have come in the second half when the team is playing with a lead or very late when attempting to come back for a win. The Seahawks have only played one game all season without turning over the ball.

The Rams are 5-0 when winning the turnover battle this season, and 0-1 when losing it (2-1 when even). They are 5th in the league in creating turnovers, and have forced 9 fumbles. Turnovers are a big part of any football game. In a game this tightly contested, it will be even more amplified.

Both teams do just about everything well. Finding a potential advantage one way or another requires a decent amount of digging. Some of those tidbits will be covered below.

One fascinating strategic aspect of this game is how both teams play with personnel. Sean McVay has been a three receiver offense for most of his time as a head coach. He has recently discovered three tight end formations he loves and has been using them as much as 40% of the snaps.

Klint Kubiak mixes his personnel groupings a ton, but goes heavy with either a fullback or two tight ends over 40% of the snaps.

Defenses have usually matched the heavy personnel, which has led to a lot of advantages in the pass game. These defenses probably buck that trend. Both Seattle and Los Angeles live in light box on defense, with the Rams playing dime (6 defensive backs) more than any other team, and the Seahawks playing nickel at a high rate with more dime of late.

Teams who can get away with light personnel and still defend the run have a big advantage. How these coaches choose to handle the heavy personnel on offense is going to be a critical factor in deciding the outcome.

McVay was one of the few coordinators to out-coach Macdonald in 2023 when Baltimore had the best defense in football. Macdonald held McVay to just 13 points on offense and seven 3-and-outs when the teams played last year in Seattle.

Both teams are red hot. Both teams believe they are the best. This very well could be the first of three games that will decide who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl. A game this good is a rare gift.

Lineup Notes

Seattle will be missing at least two starters on defense. Jarran Reed and Julian Love are on IR. Ty Okada has stepped in ably for Love, and the Seahawks have managed the Reed absence with increased reps for Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II.

It is unclear if Ernest Jones will play in this game against his former team. It is also unclear if the team would be better off with Jones at less than 100% playing over Tyrice Knight, who has played terrific football since getting back on the field.

Josh Jobe should be back on the field after missing last week with a concussion. Tory Horton Jr, has a decent chance to be back, but is nursing a groin injury. Rashid Shaheed played his first game and should see increased snaps in this one. Cooper Kupp played last week and would seem in line to be available for this one as well.

Jalen Sundell will not play in this game. Olu Oluwatimi will start at center in his place.

The Rams are basically completely healthy. Tutu Atwell is on IR. That’s about it.

Recent Trends

There will be plenty of talk about the Rams use of three tight ends. This might be the only place you will see mention of a change in how often the Rams are getting to the quarterback. Los Angeles has seen a pretty drastic step backward in pressure rate over the last five games compared to how they started the year.

The slide appears to have something to do with the type of coverages the Rams have been playing. They have nearly doubled their use of Cover 4 (from 11.6% of dropbacks to 21.2%). The best guess here is the Rams were unhappy with the number of explosive plays they were giving up and chose to get a little more conservative with four-deep coverage.

There has not been a meaningful change in the quality of the offensive line play they faced. In fact, teams like the Ravens and the Saints give up a ton of pressure.

There has been a slight dip in their blitz rate as well.

They had zero sacks and one QB hit against the 49ers. They had one sack and two QB hits against the Saints the week prior. It is an odd trend for a team that is so loaded with pass rushers, but one that will loom large in this one given that Sam Darnold is the top-rated passer in the NFL when kept clean in the pocket.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

Does it get any closer than this? These two teams are remarkably well matched. The biggest advantages DVOA sees is the Rams run defense against the Seahawks run offense, and the Seahawks special teams versus the Rams special teams.

It is interesting to see the Rams have struggled in defending WR1 this season. Word on the street is Seattle has a pretty decent WR1. Seattle’s challenges defending the tight end position could loom large as well.

Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense

Rams key advantages on defense

Jared Verse is a monster. Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske get plenty of attention for their interior pass rush. Byron Young has 9.0 sacks. Poona Ford is a great run stuffer in the middle, as is Tyler Davis.

The name that deserves more attention on the Rams defense is Quentin Lake. He is a bit like the Rams version of Nick Emmanwori. He’s a safety who plays nickel and dime. He is excellent in coverage and a good tackler. He is elite when deployed in zone coverage, which the Rams do 66% of the time.

Safeties Kam Curl and Kam Kinchens are physical in run support and are decent in coverage. Another lesser known name is Jaylen McCollough, who gets plenty of time in dime, which the Rams play a lot.

Landman has won a number of games for the Rams with forced fumbles. Seattle ball carriers are going to have to protect the ball carefully.

Even if Anthony Bradford has played better the past two games, he is a target. The Rams move Verse all around the line. Look for them to try and get quick twitch players over Bradford. Verse might be the worst possible matchup for Bradford based on their relative strengths and weaknesses.

The Rams are one of the best teams in football at defending runs outside the tackles.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Seattle is a deadly play-action offense. The Rams defense ranks 22nd in defending play-action passes. The only defenses the Seahawks have played who rank worse at defending the play-action pass are the Jaguars, the Commanders, and the Bucs. Seattle scored 35+ points in two of those games.

The Rams corners are decent when playing zone. They are a liability in man. Seattle has the 4th-best EPA/dropback against zone coverage and the highest explosive pass rate (16.3%). JSN and Kupp are playing just as well against zone and man.

While the Rams are solid at defending the outside runs, they are susceptible to runs up the middle. Most of the explosive runs they have given up are inside. They rank 21st on runs up the middle.

Oluwatimi, Bradford, and Grey Zabel were doing work against the Cardinals line on Sunday. It would be a wild storyline if they showed up as an advantage in the run game against the Rams.

The lack of film on Shaheed in this particular version of Kubiak’s offense gives the Seahawks some advantage. He was deployed in a variety of ways in his first game.

Seattle has faced four Top 10 DVOA defenses this season (Houston, Tampa Bay, Arizona-twice). They have averaged over 32 points per game against those teams. Their lowest point total was 23 against the Cardinals the first time.

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Rams key advantages on offense

Matt Stafford is playing as well as any quarterback in football. Pairing his high level play with the NFL’s best offensive mind and one of the best receivers out there, makes for a very tough offense to slow down. Stafford is not only throwing the ball well, but moving remarkably well for a player his age. He is rolling and throwing on the run with precision.

Teams that blitz are getting burned because Stafford reads it and throws to the weak spot. Teams that play coverage either get run on or give up a contested catch.

The new wrinkle with the three tight end package is something to watch out for against a Seattle defense that has struggled at times against that position. It’s worth noting, however, that the Seahawks defense has still been dominant even while giving up yards to tight ends.

Los Angeles has a terrific run blocking offensive line that is now healthy for a few weeks. Their ability to create space for Kyren Wiliams has been a crucial part of keeping defenses from getting too aggressive in the pass rush. Williams will not wow anyone with his style of play, but he runs hard, breaks arm tackles, and has been remarkably durable.

The Rams are tied for the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL. The Seahawks offense is right behind them. Getting this offense off the field is a chore.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Rams receivers have been much better against man than zone. Puka Nacua beats both, but Davante Adams has a big drop-off against zone and is only 1 for 6 on contested catches. Seattle is a predominantly zone team.

Nick Emmanwori is a key figure in this game. He can matchup against receivers or tight ends. He can blitz. He can attack the run. Either McVay is going to find a way to exploit the rookie, or the rookie and Macdonald will be a big part of spoiling the Rams afternoon.

McVay loves attacking linebackers. We do not yet know whether Ernest Jones will face his former team. Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas have been excellent the past two weeks. Thomas has missed some tackles in space, which is something the Rams will test with their screen game.

As good as the Rams line has been in run blocking, they’ve struggled in pass protection. Stafford’s sack numbers are not that high because he makes quick decisions, but none of this offensive linemen are holding up well. Both tackles, in particular, have been vulnerable.

Left tackle Alaric Jackson has given up 22 pressures. He only gave up 25 all of last year. Right tackle Rob Havenstein has surrendered 19 pressures after giving up 23 all of last season. McVay and Stafford have largely found ways to hide the problems, but this Seahawks defensive line has the potential to wreck any offense.

So much attention is on the Rams pass attack. Their run game is crucial to their success. Holding that down makes everything harder. Seattle is the best run defense the Rams have faced all season. The only other Top 10 DVOA run defense they faced was the Texans, and they only managed 72 yards rushing and 14 points in that game.

Special Teams

The Rams have had a terrible time with field goals, ranking dead last in the NFL. They signed a new kicker who played his first game this past weekend. If the game is close, that could become a factor. The Rams punt coverage has not been great. Their kickoffs have been best in the game, but the same kicker who was knuckling their kickoffs is the one who has been benched due to missed field goals. He was inactive last week, so the kickoff advantage should not be the same.

Key to a Rams win

The Rams offense has been together for a while now, at least core parts. They are playing with a ton of confidence. If they can win the turnover battle, they have a great chance to notch a win in this one.

Key to a Seahawks win

The Seahawks defensive line will miss Jarran Reed in this one. Seattle needs to dominate the line of scrimmage on defense, both against the run and rushing the passer. They can determine the outcome of this game if they blow up the Rams offensive line. Darnold needs to be efficient.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!