Sometimes, all you need is a win. Seattle did not overpower their opponent Sunday, as they have done so many times this season on their way to a league-leading point differential. In fact, they trailed almost the entire game. Remember when the Legion of Boom had that gaudy streak of never losing a game by more than double digits? This Seahawks team has only trailed by double digits in a game twice this season before falling behind 13-3 to floppy-armed, Philip Rivers and the Colts. It was not pretty. It was not encouraging. It was, however, a heck of a lot better than what many other playoff contenders experienced on Sunday. Seattle has won 11 games for the first time since 2020, and is set to host their division rival on Thursday.
Before we get too far into reflecting on this game, I must take a moment to issue a formal apology to Jason Myers. I have been a vocal critic, both of his reliability and his cost. He has not been a player I believed in when the game was on the line. He made me look like a fool in this game, and I’m deeply grateful. My pal, Evan Hill, created an apology form that I have filled out below for posterity.
Making all six of his kicks was fantastic. Hitting a 56-yard game winner, going toward the north end of the stadium, where so many kicks from a variety of kickers have fallen short over the years, was not something I will soon forget. The kick would have been good from at least five yards longer, which would have been nice against the Rams, but I digress.
Every kick was needed because the Seahawks offense could not get out of its own way in the first half, and never fully got untracked. This group has been scuffling since the loss to the Rams. The play calling has felt more conservative. Sam Darnold seems more tentative, like he has been given too many things to work on. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has seen his yardage dwindle and be harder to come by. The “Easy” button has been replaced with a “Hard to Watch” button.
A big part of that has been a running game that has not been able to find its footing. An encouraging stretch, that started against the Cardinals in Week 10, had them around 10th in rushing efficiency for 4 weeks, has slid backwards. Seattle remains one of the worst run offenses in the NFL. They were atrocious in this one.
Three yards on the ground in the first half said it all. They would put up 47 yards in the second half, but it never got easy. Some will wonder about Jalen Sundell returning to the lineup. There may be something to that.
Consider that the 10th-ranked rushing team, the Atlanta Falcons, average -0.015 EPA/rush. Olu Oluwatimi came in for the second half of the Week 10 game. Every game he started met that threshold. Sundell’s first game back coincided with their most inefficient run performance since Week 6. A -0.31 EPA/play run game would rank 31st in the NFL over a full season.
The problem goes deeper.
Seattle has seen their pass efficiency drop as well. Sam Darnold had averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt in four of five weeks before the Rams game. He was on a historic pace for explosive passing. He has yet to average more than 8.9 yards per attempt in a game since, and has only been over 7.4 yards per attempt once. His decisiveness is dropping as well, as evidenced by the time to throw trends.
It would be an even steeper trend line if not for the outlier in Week 13 when Seattle had to resort to screens and other quick throws to counter the Vikings pressure. Darnold had been around 2.7 seconds to throw for most of the year, and now has slid to around 3 seconds. It might not seem like much, but it’s a huge difference in the life of an NFL play. Remember how quickly these guys can run 40 yards.
It is not one thing. LIneup changes with the addition of Rashid Shaheed, the center swap, the loss/addition of TE Eric Saubert, and the loss of Tory Horton Jr., play some role. Teams adjusting to what was working for Seattle plays an even bigger role.
Teams have adjusted to Seattle’s tendencies and started to take away their favorite plays or primary targets. That leads to more situations where Darnold is having to hold the ball and come off his first read. Klint Kubiak is responsible for figuring out a counter punch. Part of the problem there might be that he needs the run game to be that counter.
Another aspect, though, does seem to be Darnold. They talked earlier this season about the quarterbacks “trusting their feet.” If you go back and watch a game against the Cardinals in Week 4 or most of the first ten weeks, you see his feet are pretty calm and collected as he moved through progressions rapidly. To an untrained eye, those movements look more ragged and anxious since the Rams game.
One exception was the second half against the Falcons. There were a number of wide open players he was finding there, which points back to Kubiak play calling and game planning.
For all the talk about whether Darnold can win the big game or win in the playoffs, Kubiak has quite a bit to prove as well. He has never been an OC for a team this good. He has never had to really evolve his offense over the season as a team with a target on its back. He never even had the chance to come back and refine his approach in a second season. This is all new for him.
Thankfully, football consists of more than one side of the ball. The Seahawks defense remains in the conversation for best in football. They gave up more points and yards than they should have against Rivers and the Colts, but that still was just 16 points and 215 yards.
The common refrain is that the Seahawks cannot struggle like this on offense and win against good teams. The assumption is a team like the Rams will score a lot more than 21 points in the rematch. What if neither is true?
An offense that does not turn the ball over (which Seattle accomplished versus the Colts), combined with great special teams and defense can beat anyone. Seattle has played 26 games where they:
- Held a team under 20 points and 280 yards of offense
- Have more than 300 yards on offense
- Turn it over 0 times
They are 26-0 in those games. The Rams had 249 yards of offense in the first game. They gashed Seattle on the ground early with Ernest Jones IV playing injured. Once the Seahawks corrected their mistakes, they got back to being a dominant run defense and the Rams offense crumbled. Is it crazy to think they are better equipped to slow the Rams run game from the jump this time?
That leaves the zero turnovers. That clearly is part of the goal with Kubiak’s approach on offense. Seattle had a turnover in 10 of their first 11 games. They had at least 2 turnovers in six of those games. They have put up zero turnovers in two of their four games since playing the Rams, and only had more than one giveaway once.
Darnold has done a much better job of not putting the ball in danger through the air. It feels like a process that he and Kubiak and the offense are going through to figure out how to reduce their turnovers while retaining their explosiveness. It does not feel like they are particularly close to finding that balance. It is worth noting that the Falcons, Vikings, and Colts are all Top 13 pass defenses by DVOA. Seattle has been going through a stretch of defenses that make life more difficult on the pass game.
It won’t get easier against the 3rd-ranked Rams pass defense. Playing a quality pass defense, though, won’t be a shock to the system.
Give the Colts credit in this one. All the attention coming in was the old quarterback, but this was a team that has been a handful all season. They are the best running team in the league. Their offensive line and running back and tight ends were there, and did just enough to keep Rivers out of many obvious passing situations or behind the sticks. Their defense played a far better game than I expected they would be capable of without the three of their best players.
This looked like a team that was fighting for their season and knew everyone was making jokes at their expense. Shane Steichen and his staff did a terrific job getting his team prepared for this game. Rivers may not have threatened much in the pass game, but he managed the game wonderfully and gave Seattle very little chance to get pressure on him or create negative plays. Indianapolis played the better game relative to their talent and expectations. Seattle got the win.
Teams like the Patriots, Panthers, Lions, Packers, Bucs, and Cowboys would happily trade some of their points and yards for a victory.
Another week of heavy rain is coming to Seattle. Strong winds are forecast to cause widespread power outages. It is going to be messy. This team is ready for it.