There are games where too much analysis obscures the clarity of a matchup. This is one of those games. The Rams have been the best team in football this year. There is not really a good argument to make for anyone else. They have been a powerhouse on offense, whether via the ground or air. The defense has been stingy. Their quarterback will be the MVP. Their coach has reinforced his place at the top of his profession. Los Angeles has beat quality opponents and blown out lesser ones.
Seattle has been the second best team. Although, there is more room for debate on that front. The Seahawks do not have the signature victory against a top opponent. Their offense has sagged in recent weeks, even thought victories continue to pile up. Sam Darnold has fallen out of the MVP conversation, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is no longer on pace to set a new receiving record. Mike Macdonald has earned respect with how his team has played, but is not yet a member of the coaching elite.
The Rams have little to prove in this game. They have confidence born of consistent quality play. Seattle has everything to prove. Nobody talks about Macdonald’s track record of slowing down McVay’s offene because his team has ultimately wound up on the losing side of the ledger. Nobody talks about the Seahawks offense putting up the most yards of any offense against the Rams in the first game because their QB turned it over four times. Many national analysts have already have drafted their game stories, lampooning Darnold and feteing McVay. The outcome seems predictable and inevitable for most.
Not in the Seahawks locker room. There is a sense of unfinished business. It is less about the Rams, and more about their belief that the best team in football resides in the Pacific Northwest. Few outside Seahawks headquarters share that perspective.
The Rams know they can beat Seattle. The Seahawks believe they can beat Los Angeles. The knowing-believing gap is what’s at stake here. A win would replace any lingering doubt with confidence that could propel Seattle all the way to the #1 seed in the NFC and the Super Bowl. A loss would leave them struggling to square what they believe with what reality has been.
Two terrific football teams will square of for what very well could be the second of three matchups. This second chapter could foreshadow how the story will end.
Lineup Notes
All eyes will be on Davante Adams for the Rams and Charles Cross of the Seahawks on injury reports this week. Both are battling hamstring injuries that could keep them out of this game. Each player is critical to their offense. There is slightly more skepticism Adams will play than Cross, both due to the fact that this was an aggravation of an existing injury, and that hamstring injuries tend to be more limiting to receivers than offensive linemen.
Those are not the only two possible differences from the first game. Seattle played without starters Julian Love and Jarran Reed on defense in the first matchup. Ernest Jones IV was battling a knee injury that probably should have kept him out, as he was unable to play the following week. He is healthier now. Starters Jalen Sundell and Eric Saubert were absent in Week 11, and will be back for this one. Seattle had fullback Robbie Ouzts as inactive against the Colts. He may, or may not, be back in the lineup for this game.
Los Angeles will be without TE Tyler Higbee and RT Rob Havenstein. Both have been ably replaced by younger players. Terrance Ferguson has upped his snaps with Higbee out, and Warren McClendon Jr. has outperformed Havenstein. The other injury of note is Quentin Lake, who is a key part of the Ram’s dime defense. That has led to more snaps for Josh Wallace and Jaylen McCollough.
Recent Trends
It is usually best to rely on the largest sample size you have when looking at statistics. In is useful, though, to get a feel for how teams have been performing recently. Injuries and other changes can make a team significantly different over the course of a season.
The table above compares how the Seahawks and Rams ranked in certain key efficiency metrics heading into the last game, and how they have both performed since. The actual Week 11 game is not included in either sample.
It is clear the Seahawks offense has stepped back. In particular, the pass game was red hot before that game, and has become pedestrian since. What is less known is the Rams pass defense went from elite to mediocre as well. More on that in a bit. The Seahawks running game actually improved, while the Rams run defense degraded. By the numbers, the Rams defense has backslid more than the Seahawks offense.
The strength of both teams, the Rams offense and the Seahawks defense, have only gotten better of late. They have been the best at what they do in the NFL since Week 12. The Rams passing game shows up as less efficient because Matt Stafford has turned the ball over more in that span, but it’s still lethal. Meanwhile, the run game has become the best in the league.
DVOA
Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
The Seahawks defense and the Rams offense are two heavyweights, ready for round two. The other side of the ball looks a bit more tilted toward the Rams. A Seahawks passing game that entered the first game as the #1 DVOA pass attack in the NFL, has slid to 9th. Doing that in 5 weeks indicates they have been performing far below 9th in that span.
The Rams special teams helped them win the first game with a key punt late. That unit has been a liability overall, while the Seahawks special teams has won them a number of games this season.
Seattle is as good as it gets when it comes to taking away wide receivers. They have improved against tight ends. The Rams are vulnerable against receivers. Seattle will need to better exploit that advantage in this one.
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Rams key advantages on defense
The Rams defensive front is a handful. Not only are Jared Verse and Byron Young terrors off the edge, but Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske, and Poona Ford form a powerful interior rotation. Backups Josaiah Stewart and Tyler Davis are nothing to sneeze at either.
Their ability to rush the passer is well understood. It has been the glow-up in run defense that has made this defense one of the best in football. Verse is a powerful edge setter. Ford has been a rock in the middle. This group’s ability to create pressure and stop the run while playing with light boxes has allowed DC Chris Shula to live in nickel and dime defenses.
They played roughly 60% dime against the Seahawks in the first game, and it was a challenge for Kubiak and Darnold to solve. Safeties Kam Kinchens and Kam Curl aggressively hunted routes that normally would be open with fewer defensive backs. Corners sat on routes, believing Darnold would be so worried about getting sacked, that he would throw the ball quickly. They were right.
Seattle has yet to prove they can run a team out of a light box or threaten enough in the passing game to get into the endzone consistently. The Rams are uniquely suited to stifle the Seahawks offense, and may be going against a backup left tackle.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Sitting on routes is a dangerous way to live. Seattle possesses dangerous weapons in Shaheed and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Double moves could lead to explosive plays for the Seahawks. The Lions just put up a ton of points and yards against the Rams secondary that has really fallen off of late.
Emmanuel Forbes was a star for the Rams against the Seahawks, breaking up a touchdown pass to Shaheed. His season has soured the last three weeks where he has surrendered 14 catches in 18 targets for 236 yards and 3 TDs. The Rams are in a weird spot in the cornerback room. They got back former starter Ahkello Witherspoon, but made him a healthy inactive last week after not playing well. Darious Williams continues to be a solid player, but Cobie Durant has struggled the last three weeks as well. Durant has given up 11 catches in 14 targets for 168 yards and 4 TDs. Opposing QBs have had passer ratings of 152.1, 118.8, and 158.3 when targeting him in those games.
Seattle has the receivers to exploit the Rams corners. As bad as the turnovers were, the Seahawks offense did have 5 scoring drives and piled up the most yards of any offense this season (414 yards) against Los Angeles.
Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet both contributed solid games. Walker had 67 yards rushing and another 44 yards receiving. He would have had a touchdown if not for a holding call on Nick Kallerup.
AJ Barner was also a big part of the offense, catching 10 passes in 11 targets for 70 yards.
Four turnovers are almost impossible to overcome. Seattle nearly did. Most of that was their great defense, but the offense put together three straight scoring drives after the gut punch interception on the first series. They also put together an 84-yard touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter to give the team a chance, and they got into a field goal range on the last possession that started inside their own 1-yard line. This was not a hopelessly overmatched offense.
They must find ways to exploit their mismatches on the outside.
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams key advantages on offense
The Rams do everything well on offense. The thing that is probably least heralded is the run blocking. Their line is full of excellent run blockers. Both backs are physical. It was more the Rams run game that gave Seattle trouble in the first game than the passing attack.
Early explosive runs led to scores. Seattle has faced elite run games two straight weeks with Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. They have held their own. Los Angeles has the line worthy of going toe-to-toe with this Seahawks front.
Havenstein was their weak link in pass pro last time. He gave up 3 pressures and had a 19.9 pass block grade. He went on IR after that game and McClendon stepped in. He has been the 5th-highest graded tackle in the NFL since Week 12 (85.9 grade). He likely would be the starter even if Havenstein came back at this point. That leaves the Rams without a weak link to attack on the line.
Nacua is as tough of a matchup as you will find at receiver. He’s big and catches just about everything. He had 7 catches for 75 yards in Week 11, but that was one of only two games this year he was held without a catch over 20 yards. If Adams is out, he will become an even bigger focal point of the offense.
Former Seahawk Colby Parkinson has stepped up this year, and is becoming a favorite red zone target for Stafford. Parkinson has 3 TDs in the past two games, and at least 1 TD in five of the last six games.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
The Rams have increasingly relied on their 3 TE package, and it’s been pretty much unstoppable.
This is not a new wrinkle for Seattle. They were prepared for it the first time, and entered that game quietly confident they would stop it. They did.
Seattle has personnel nobody else can match. Nick Emmanwori, Devon Witherspoon, and company give them versatility against the run and the pass. Jones and Drake Thomas and DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu are all physical at the point of attack, allowing Seattle to work with their dominant interior linemen to stop the run even with a light box going against heavy personnel.
The Seahawks will plan to bully the Rams tight ends and do a better job in this game at limiting explosive rushing plays. Jones was not right physically in that game, and it showed. He should be better. Crowd noise may make it harder for Stafford to adjust plays at the line.
Weather is another key wildcard here. As of now, it is not expected to rain much during the game after the first hour. It is supposed to be windy. Stafford and the Rams struggled in bad weather in Carolina.
Macdonald has had McVay’s number the last two years in a way nobody else has. It would not be wise to assume that will always be the case, but the numbers are encouraging for Seattle on that front.
Special Teams
Seeing the punter with the 26th-ranked net yards per punt pin them inside the 1-yard line was painful for Seattle in the first game. He will have weather to deal with in this one. Seattle’s return game remains dangerous.
Key to a Rams win
A Rams team that runs the ball and takes the ball away would be in good position to win.
Key to a Seahawks win
Seattle needs to catch one of Stafford’s turnover-worthy passes or find a way to get to the quarterback. They almost certainly have to win the turnover battle to win this game. Getting JSN and Shaheed going would allow the rest of the offense to exhale.