Few fans circled this game when the NFL schedule was released. Seattle traveling to Carolina in Week 17 was destined to be a game few cared about, and even fewer watched. Both teams had projected win totals under eight, with Seattle at 7.5 and the Panthers at 6.5. The Panthers and Seahawks have both blown by those projections and stand on the precipice of the playoffs. Seattle has already clinched a spot. Carolina has work left to do.

This game has the potential to mean nothing for the Panthers if the Bucs beat the Dolphins during a game that will happen at the same time as this one. Carolina would need to beat the Bucs the final week of the season to win the division. It has the potential to mean everything if the Dolphins manage to surprise the Bucs, as that would mean a Panthers win over Seattle would clinch a playoff berth.

Coach Dave Canales has said they won’t be scoreboard watching and would not pull starters if the Bucs are badly beating the Dolphins. Seattle needs this game either way if they want a realistic shot to take the top seed in the NFC.

The Seahawks have done a great job of playing to their standard instead of rising or falling to their opponent’s level. That will be tested this week, coming off an emotional and physical game against the division rival Rams, and knowing they have another division rival the following week when traveling to play San Francisco. Seattle will not overlook the Panthers, but it may be challenging to bring their absolute best.

The Panthers are a fascinating team. They are young, with pockets of promising talent, and areas of real weakness. That mix has led to a roller coaster season that has included wins over the Rams and Packers, as well as ugly losses to the Saints (twice), the Jaguars, and the Cardinals. They can beat anyone and lose to anyone.

Their offensive line and running game can be formidable. Bryce Young has been mercurial. It is great that he has led the most game-winning drives in the NFL since he came into the league, but that also means his team has been trailing a lot late in games. Like Sam Darnold, critics have dismissed Young only to embrace him again after a sparkling performance. The defense is bad enough that this team should not be pushing for a playoff berth, but here they are.

Two things tend to correlate with wins and losses for this largely unpredictable team. When they rush for fewer than 100 yards, they lose. The only exception was an overtime win against the Falcons where Young helped the team pass for 419 yards. The other harbinger of bad outcomes has been when they turn the ball over. Carolina is 1-5 when they have 2 or more turnovers. Related to both rushing offense and turnovers, the Panthers have scored fewer than 20 points in every loss except the bizarre game against Arizona when they scored 22 points.

Seattle having the best run defense in the NFL presents a challenge. They will need to either move the ball against that front in a way few have, or Young will need to create on the move to extend plays and exhaust coverage. The task is not impossible, but there is a reason Seattle is favored by a touchdown on the road.

Lineup Notes

Seattle will be without Edge Derick Hall, who was suspended for one game by the NFL for stepping on a Rams player. His absence will mostly be made up with extra snaps for DeMarcus Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and Uchenna Nwosu. The team will likely have either Connor O’Toole or Jared Ivey active and part of the rotation. O’Toole is more of the classic edge player, while Ivey provides more size.

They may also increase the snap count for Rylie Mills, who has not played more than 7 snaps so far, and could allow for more rest for Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, and Jarran Reed. Mike Macdonald also could choose to run more three tackle looks on defense, which would help reduce the need for replacing Hall’s snaps.

Charles Cross is probably not going to be back for this game, leaving Josh Jones at left tackle for a second straight week. Safety Coby Bryant is also unlikely to play, which would push Ty Okada back into the lineup. There may be other Seattle injuries we will learn more about after their Wednesday practice report.

Carolina should be getting their left tackle, Ikem Ekwonu, back in the lineup after missing the game last week. They may also be getting back defensive tackle, Tershawn Wharton, who has missed the past two games. Bobby Brown III had been getting more reps with Wharton out.

The bigger question is whether guard Robert Hunt will make his return from a torn biceps that has sidelined him since Week 2. Carolina is talking about opening his practice window this week. What we do not know is whether he would need some time to ramp up or could be inserted back into the lineup this weekend. That would be a huge boost for an already good offensive line. Austin Corbett is normally the Panthers center, but has shifted to guard with Hunt out.

Linebacker Trevin Wallace has been in-and-out of the lineup the last few weeks with a shoulder injury. He did not play last week. Claudin Cherelus has been taking his snaps.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

This is not a pretty picture for the Panthers. It probably looked this bad against the Rams, though, and we know how that turned out. Seattle is so close with the Rams in DVOA that they fell fractionally behind them after the 49ers walloped the Colts on Monday night since LA beat SF earlier.

Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense

Panthers key advantages on defense

Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn are the most impactful players on the Panthers defense. Brown is one of the great defensive tackles in the game, and Horn takes the ball away as well as any corner in football. Mike Jackson, the former Seahawks corner, is big and physical. He can make plays on the ball and take it away as well. Edge Nic Scourton has had a decent rookie season, providing some pass rush.

The Panthers ability to pick off passes is their biggest statistical advantage.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The Panthers rank 32nd in QB pressure rate and 31st in sacks. Seattle has faced some quality pass rushes over the last few games that ranked among the best in the league. The last time the Seahawks faced a pass rush that ranked 25th or lower in pressure rate was the Arizona Cardinals (25th) and the New Orleans Saints (27th). Seattle scored 38 points in the first half of the Cardinals game, 24 points by the offense.

Carolina plays the most zone coverage of any team in football, over 80% of their snaps. There is a not a lot of disguising to figure out. Darnold has ripped it all year when he’s confident in what he sees and is not having to navigate a collapsing pocket. He should have the elements he needs for his best game in a while.

Rashid Shaheed has also terrorized the Panthers. He has at least 1 catch of 40+ yards in each of his last two games against Carolina. Horn and Jackson are physical corners, but both are susceptible to speed. The linebackers are extremely poor in coverage, creating opportunities for A.J. Barner.

Ken Walker III has been coming on of late, and could be a big part of the run and pass game in this one. The vast majority of his receiving yards have come against zone coverage. Seattle should be able to get a run game that is both steady and explosive against this defense.

Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Panthers key advantages on offense

Carolina has a powerful offensive line that can both protect Young and create holes for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. They pushed around the Rams at times in that game, and will try to do that to the Seahawks as well. Tetairoa McMillan is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a strong year as a receiving threat. He is a threat down the field and can use his size for contested catches. As good as Devon Witherspoon and Josh Jobe have been this season, they have surrendered some catches to receivers who can out leap or out muscle them.

Young can create off schedule opportunities with his legs. He is less of a runner, and is more a scrambler, looking to extend plays. He has the most game-winning drives in the NFL since he came into the league, so you do not want to have the game remain in reach if at all possible.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

It is a little surprising just how poor the Panthers rank in almost all statistical categories. This feels like a rushing offense that is good enough to threaten any defense, and there is enough to like about the passing game that they should be scoring more points.

The numbers say otherwise. A Seattle defense that excels in both stopping the run and pressuring the passer is a tough combination for any offense. The Panthers have faced good run defenses in Green Bay and Tampa Bay and beat both teams. They have gone against top pass pressure teams like Tampa and Atlanta, and won both games.

The Seahawks defense is in a different class, though, and should be well equipped to hold this Panthers offense down. If Ekwonu plays, he may be a pass rush target as he has surrendered 37 pressures on the season.

Special Teams

Seattle’s special teams is finally getting the recognition it deserves after keying another win. They now rank 4th in both kick and punt return yardage. Carolina has great kick coverage, but is not as strong in punt coverage. Canales rarely attempts long field goals as he prefers being aggressive on 4th down.

Key to a Panthers win

The Panthers need to score over 25 points and take the ball away at least twice to upset the Seahawks.

Key to a Seahawks win

Seattle can make this game far more comfortable if they keep progressing in the run game and limit Panthers possessions while also limiting pass attempts. A Darnold explosive pass or two would go a long way.