Seattle plays their second straight game against a franchise Seahawks fans love to hate when they travel across the country to play the Pittsburgh Steelers. More recent fans may not carry the same vitriol toward the Steelers as those who were around to see them benefit from some Seahawks injuries and poor officiating in the Super Bowl. Since then, the teams have played six times, with Steelers winning four times, including three of four in Pittsburgh. Seattle has only been shutout four times since 2000, and two of them were by the Steelers in Pittsburgh (2007, 2011). The series got a little boost of rivalry pixie dust when DK Metcalf forced his way out of Seattle and wound up playing with Aaron Rodgers.
Both teams had wildly different opening weeks. Pittsburgh played on the road against a Jets team with low national expectations, and got into a shootout that was ultimately decided by a fumbled kickoff and a 60-yard field goal. Rodgers was nearly perfect, with four touchdown passes and zero picks, while the pricey Steelers defense was overpowered by Justin Fields and Breece Hall.
Seattle lost to their arch rival, who most expect to win the division, in a game where points came at a premium. A brutally physical game left the 49ers with a slew of injuries, but a victory to treat their wounds. The Seahawks exited with concern about their offense and the cornerback most likely to be matched up on Metcalf.
Pittsburgh is looking for a bounce back game from their defense, especially against the run, and better pass protection from a line that saw Rodgers get sacked four times. Seattle wants to get their running game going, and turn more of their league-leading pressure rate into sacks. Two teams, emphasizing the inverse aspects of their game.
Oddsmakers have the Steelers as favorites (-3) to go to 2-0 and send Seattle home 0-2. It will take a dramatic step forward by the Seahawks offense to alter that outcome.
Lineup notes
The Steelers left their game with a number of injuries. Starting safety DeShon Elliott and backup inside linebacker Malik Harrison were lost, and have already been ruled out for this week. Starting corner Joey Porter Jr. also left with an injury, but Mike Tomlin said he is hopeful he will play this week. Their first round pick, defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, missed last week and has already been ruled out for this week. On the positive side, they are expecting to get rush end Nick Herbig back on the field after missing week one. He had 5.5 sacks and 27 pressures last season as part of a talented edge group.
Seattle will be without rookie safety Nick Emmanwori. They may be getting back three players in edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu, and receivers, Jake Bobo and Dareke Young. There were also hints dropped by Mike Macdonald that CB Josh Jobe and LB Drake Thomas may steal snaps from Riq Woolen and Tyrice Knight, respectively.
DVOA
Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
Welcome to the bizarre world of small sample sizes and unexpected results. Few would expect the Seahawks offense to outrank any defense after their ineffective performance in week one, but DVOA has them somewhat solidly ahead of a Steelers defense that was beaten on the ground and through the air against the Jets. Similarly, a Seahawks defene that played a mostly great game against the 49ers, ranks just 20th in DVOA.
How the Steelers could rank worse in defending tight ends than a Seahawks team that gave up two touchdowns to tight ends in the first week is beyond comprehension.
Seahawks Offense vs Steelers Defense
Steelers key advantages on defense
It is hard to believe the Steelers are truly that bad in defending the run. New York put up over 180 yards on the ground, including over 100 yards by the running back. Almost all of those runs were away from All-Pro edge T.J. Watt. It was a surprise to see DT Cam Heyward and edge Alex Highsmith struggle.
The Steelers were 13th in run defense, per DVOA, a year ago. However, they were 18th in rushing success rate and 17th in rush EPA. Looking more closely, they gave up 124, 220, and 299 yards rushing the the Ravens, as well as 131 yards rushing to the Eagles. They generally played the run well against the non-powerhouse running teams, although, 157 yards to the Giants stands out.
Watt remains a game-wrecker, and Heyward will be motivated to prove week one was an aberration. Highsmith gets lost in the shadows of those two stars, but is one of the better edge players in football. At a glance, there is more talent on this line than the one that shut down the Seahawks run game in week one.
Patrick Queen is a familiar face to Macdonald, and leads their second level. Jalen Ramsey is playing somewhat of a big nickel role for the Steelers after they acquired him from the Dolphins. He should be able to lock down Cooper Kupp or any of the Seattle tight ends who line up against him.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
There is some weakness on the interior of that Steelers line, more than what we saw against the 49ers. Keeanu Benton, Isaiahh Loudermilk, and rookie Yahya Black all struggled mightily against the Jets. Linebacker Payton Wilson also overran a number of plays and was caught out of position.
New York ran primarily zone scheme, which aligns with what the Seahawks major in. The Jets benefitted from a dual threat quarterback in Justin Fields. Seattle may be tempted to see how they handle some Jalen Milroe packages. Macdonald mentioned there were more plays in the game plan for him, but they just didn’t sustain enough drives to get to those calls.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is better than any of the corners the Steelers could throw his way. Veteran Darius Slay was torched by another former Buckeye in Garrett Wilson in game one. Ramsey is still big and talented, but has lost a step and would be outmatched by JSN. Porter Jr. has struggled after a promising rookie season two years ago, and may play through an injury.
The Steelers allowed nearly two yards before contact per carry in the first game, ranking 24th in the NFL. Seattle needs a similar outcome to allow this nascent offense to gain confidence on the road in a tough environment.
Pittsburgh stacked the box (8+ defenders) even more often (28%) than the 49ers (23%). They are going to dare Sam Darnold and the passing game to beat them. It’s worth noting that the Steelers gave up the second-highest EPA/pass versus shotgun in week one, and they were the worst in the league when there was no play action. In other words, the Seahawks game plan against the 49ers would make some sense here, but you have to wonder if they will go the opposite direction and unveil their under center, play action game. The problem there is it can increase the risk of the pass rush getting home on longer developing plays.
Something to watch: Pittsburgh ran single-high safety at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL last season (64.5%). That could create opportunity for tight ends to exploit the seams or Tory Horton to challenge deep.
Steelers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Steelers key advantages on offense
Rodgers had a terrific game in his return to New York. He was particularly effective on play action passes, were he went 8/10 for 71 yards and 3 TDs. That was his most play action passes since 2016. The problem for the Steelers was that their pass protection did not hold up well on those plays, giving up multiple sacks.
Rodgers time to throw on those plays was over 3 seconds, compared to 2.3 seconds without play action. The fact that they still gave up 27% pressure rate when getting rid of the ball that quickly is not good news for their offense.
What is good news is they were highly effective in the quick passing game overall. They had the 4th-best EPA/pass on pass attempts under 2.5 seconds. Metcalf was productive on some screen plays, and 112 of Rodgers 244 yards passing came on these quick plays.
Metcalf will be looking to make a point in this game. Those moments have had mixed results for the ultra-talented receiver in past seasons.
Watch out for the Steelers tight end group that includes Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, and Darnell Washington. Seattle struggled against tight ends versus the 49ers.
Jaylen Warren is a good running back who inexplicably split carries with Kenneth Gainwell. Look for Warren to get more carries in this one.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Boye Mafe and Derick Hall had much more productive games than I realized the first time I watched. Mafe led the team in pressures, and both players made Trent Williams look foolish repeatedly. They may welcome back Nwosu this week and the Steelers left tackle, Broderick Jones, was so bad in the game against the Jets that there are already questions about how long of a leash they will give him before being benched.
The rest of the line is also a question mark. Former Husky Troy Fautanu is playing right tackle after losing his rookie year to injury. Zach Frazier is a good center. Mason McCormick and Isaac Seumalo are middling (or worse) guards. The Steelers struggled to hold up against the blitz, yielding three of their sacks and a whopping 23% sack rate (sack, not pressure).
Given the Seahawks had over an 80% pressure rate when they blitzed against the 49ers, expect Macdonald to dial up more pressures this week. The challenge there will be the wily veteran in Rodgers being able to identify the pressures and get the ball out to his hot read, or changing the snap count and getting some free offsides shots down the field.
Rodgers cannot move at this stage of his career, so there will be a much higher pressure-to-sack rate than against the mobile and resourceful, Brock Purdy. Case in point, Purdy was under pressure on 21 dropbacks, and was only sacked 1 time (4.8%). Rodgers was under pressure on 9 of his dropbacks, and was sacked 4 times (44.4%).
Metcalf is a bit of a one-man show, but Calvin Austin III showed he may have more to offer at the second receiver spot than most expected. Josh Jobe, Devon Witherspoon, and Riq Woolen need to be better as a group.
Special Teams
The Steelers kicker made two kicks over 50 yards, including the 60-yard game winner. Their special teams also forced a fumble on a kick return that keyed the win. Seattle was no slouch on special teams either, with a blocked field goal and relatively productive returns.
Key to a Steelers win
Slow the Seahawks run game and take advantage of Rodgers’ savvy at the line of scrimmage to exploit holes in coverage. It is hard to see the Seahawks winning a game where they are forced to rely on dropback passing.
Key to a Seahawks win
Forcing turnovers on defense and giving the offense a shorter field. Pressures must turn into sacks and turnovers. Someone must step up to the challenge of slowing Metcalf, while the line has to do a better job of creating space in the run game.
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