It would be easy for Seahawks fans to breathe a sigh of relief when looking at the schedule and seeing the winless New Orleans Saints coming to town after two tough games against the 49ers and Steelers. That would be unwise. Fans have seen the Seahawks blow home games to teams worse than this Saints squad. New Orleans scored more points and gained more yards against the 49ers defense than Seattle. They had the ball with a chance to win on the final possession, but their quarterback had the ball knocked out of his hands to end the game. Sound familiar?

The Saints have little hope of a meaningful season. It is still early enough that Seattle will get full effort from players and a strong desire to avoid an 0-3 start. Their second year quarterback, Spencer Rattler, has been better than most expected so far. He made a number of good throws against the 49ers, and has more touchdown passes than Sam Darnold without throwing an interception. He is mobile and resourceful, not unlike the quarterback who gave Seattle fits in the first game of the year.

This is no juggernaut, however, coming into Lumen Field. The Saints are not close to as talented as the Seahawks, and have some weaknesses that Seattle should be able to exploit.

Mike Macdonald and his players desperately want to win a game at home. Injuries could be a wildcard as the Seahawks coach alluded to some new names being added to the injury report on Wednesday. Barring crucial missing players, Seattle is deservedly a heavy favorite in this one.

Lineup notes

There are not many big injury absences for the Saints. Chase Young has missed the first two weeks of the season with a calf injury. There is no word yet on whether he will return for this game. They did lose starting safety Julian Blackmon in the first game against the Cardinals. He is out for the year, and that has forced Jonas Sanker into the lineup.

Seattle will be monitoring Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori to see if either or both players can make it back on the field after missing week two.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

Keep in mind that DVOA is a little less reliable with a small sample size of two weeks, especially since opponent adjustments don’t really kick in for a week or two. Still, it is worth noting that the area where Seattle and New Orleans are evenly matched is the Seahawks rushing offense versus the Saints rushing defense. Seattle could find trouble if they get too stubborn about running the football instead of exploiting advantages through the air.

Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense

Saints key advantages on defense

Demario Davis is still one of the best inside linebackers in the NFL, especially against the run. He is not Fred Warner, but he is elite (90.3 PFF grade, 92.4 vs the run). Cam Jordan is the name people know on the defensive line, but Carl Granderson is the one to watch. Granderson caused the 49ers a lot of trouble last week, and already has 3.5 sacks. Athletic interior linemen, Bryan Bresee, can get into the backfield as well but is not as good at making the play once he arrives.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The Saints secondary is a question mark. They enter this game with the highest Wide Open Coverage Rate in the NFL at 29.4%, per FTNFantasy.com. That is defined as plays where a receiver has at least 5 yards of separation from the nearest defender. They also play Cover 0 (no deep safeties) at the 3rd highest rate in the league so far. Seattle has only two pass attempts against that look this year and it’s been feast or famine. One pass came on the tipped interception that nearly cost the Seahawks the game against the Steelers. The other came on the 43-yard strike to Jaxon Smith-Njigba that helped seal the win.

There has been some boom or bust for the Saints defense as well. They have a high sack rate, but also have the 7th-highest rate of allowing opponents a clean pocket to operate from (74%). They have been great against play action so far (-0.53 EPA/dropback, 4th-best in the NFL), but awful when there is no play action (+0.22 EPA/dropback, 28th).

This is the least talented defense the Seahawks have faced so far this season. However, it is probably performing better than the Steelers unit. They can be undisciplined, as they have surrendered the 2nd-most first downs via penalty in the league.

Sam Darnold and the Seahawks pass catchers will need to build on their performance against the Steelers to exploit the weaknesses in coverage. Watch out for Elijah Arroyo and AJ Barner to have larger roles against a Saints team that does not have great coverage linebackers or safeties.

Seattle has been one of the most explosive passing teams in the NFL. That could spell trouble for the Saints.

One other tidbit worth noting is that the Saints defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in defending runs outside the tackles, yielding 5.5 yards per tote. They are also 25th in the NFL in yards allowed before contact (1.99 per rush) on those outside runs, and 19th on all runs (1.27 per rush). That could mean good things for Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet and crew.

Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Saints key advantages on offense

Rattler has been very good so far. He has shown poise and accuracy and the ability to make plays off script while breaking the pocket. He is also a pretty decent runner. He had a much better performance against a tough 49ers defense (3 TD, 0 INT, 118.1 passer rating) than Darnold.

He has weapons in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Juwan Johnson. Even Brandin Cooks and Devaughn Vele are viable options. The running game features a still-dangerous Alvin Kamara, who put up 99 tough yards against the San Francisco defense that suffocated the Seattle run game.

New head coach, Kellen Moore, had a similar start to the year as Klint Kubiak. He used play-action at near the lowest rate in the NFL in Week 1, before using it 33% of the time against the 49ers. Rattler completed 7 of those passes for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Erik McCoy is one of the better centers in the league.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

McCoy is the lone highlight on an offensive line that is struggling. Both tackles are yielding pressure at high rates. Rookie Kelvin Banks Jr. has given up 8 pressures and second-year player Taliese Fuaga has given up 10. He has the same pass block efficiency as Braxton Jones of the Steelers, who has been a turnstile.

This will be the first road game for the Saints, and their ability to operate efficiently on the road could hamper their chances. They will undoubtedly try to reduce the pressure on the line and the quarterback by running the ball effectively. To this point, no team has done that against the Seahawks front seven.

As good as Kamara is as a runner, he has been a disaster in blitz pickup. Seattle has not blitzed often, but that might change this week to test this young line and quarterback in a hostile environment.

Much has been made of the Seahawks pass rush, which is near the league leaders in pressure rate, but the coverage may be more deserving of attention. They have the second-best Tight Coverage Rate in the NFL , behind only the Eagles, per FTNFantasy.com. They rank 9th in average separation, according to NextGenStats. No receiver had more than 22 yards against the Seahawks in Week 2. The bulk of the yards Ricky Pearsall managed in Week 1 came on misjudging a ball in the air, as opposed to getting beat.

This quality coverage has allowed the pass rush more time to get home. This would be a great week to flip the script and have the pass rush get some quicker wins to make life easier for the secondary. That will mean containing Rattler better than the Seahawks were able to do against Purdy or even Rodgers. Both QBs escaped pressure too often.

Should Emmanwori play, his matchup with Johnson could be a fascinating watch.

Josh Jobe has been locking down everyone he’s faced, allowing a passer rating of 0.0 when targeted. Olave is a great route runner. Shaheed is one of the better deep threats in the league. Look for Moore to try to find ways to test Jobe’s speed against Shaheed.

Special Teams

The Saints special teams have not been very good, but watch out for Shaheed as a punt returner. Kicker Blake Grupe has had a rough start, missing two kicks under 50 yards. The Seahawks special teams have made game-changing plays in each of the first two weeks. Few teams have had a bigger impact from their special teams than what Seattle has produced.

Key to a Saints win

Avoiding self-inflicted mistakes like penalties and dropped passes would go a long way toward giving the Saints a fighting chance in this game. They need their offensive line to hold up better than it has so far, which is a big ask in their first road game against this defensive front and scheme. Failing all that, they need Rattler to have a special game and Shaheed to create at least one explosive play.

Key to a Seahawks win

Quick pressure and solid run defense would make this game very tough for the Saints to win. New Orleans has rushed for over 100 yards in both games, which has reduced the burden on their young quarterback and offensive line. Seattle has been stout against the run, but has had some issues with missed tackles, and Kamara will make even the best defenders look foolish. This would be an ideal game for the Seahawks edge players to register their first sack of the season.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!