Two teams desperate for a division win will clash in Glendale Thursday night as the Seahawks travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals. Both squads lost their first divisional game to the 49ers. Both were close losses that easily could have, and probably should have, gone the other way. Arizona was plagued by dropped passes and some overly conservative play calling. Their offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, has come under fire for what some perceive to be a predictable and feckless offense. Highly touted second year receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., dropped two critical passes in the game. Quarterback Kyler Murray tried to put the team on his back with some nice throws and scrambles out of the pocket, but once again, could not lift his team to victory in a close game. Emotional leader and tone setter, James Conner, was lost for the season after a gruesome lower leg injury.
Injuries have piled up for the Cardinals. Their only wins are close games against the Saints and Panthers. The Seahawks are coming off two convincing wins over the Steelers and Saints, and may be getting healthier going into this game. On the surface, this seems like a clear win for the Seattle.
Be careful about assuming anything about a road game against a divisional opponent on Thursday night. This Cardinals defense has been rugged. They have not surrendered more than 22 points in a game to this point, and held two opponents to 16 points or fewer. Calais Campbell is still a huge problem on the defensive line, and free agent addition, Josh Sweat, can be a handful.
Seattle has been lifted by some amazing special team play the last two weeks. It is unlikely the team can expect a third straight game with a special teams touchdown. The offense will have to score against this defense, and the defense will need to contain a scrambling quarterback, which they have struggled to do so far this season.
The Vegas line on this game has shifted from a 2.5 point Cardinals favorite to 1.5 points in favor of the Seahawks. Seattle should be favored to win. Both teams need this game. It should be a dogfight.
Lineup notes
The Cardinals will turn to second-year running back, Trey Benson, with James Conner out. Benson has 65% of his rushing yards on two carries (52 and 29 yards). He is not the physical runner inside the tackles that Conner was. Emari Demercado will get more carries as the backup.
The offensive line has also had some health issues as LT Paris Johnson Jr. missed the game on Sunday and may have trouble making it back this week. Veteran tackle Kelvin Beachum replaced Johnson Jr.. Isaiah Adams has been starting in place of Will Hernandez, and has struggled.
The cornerback room has been decimated. Two veteran starters from last season, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Starling Thomas, were lost for the season before the first week. Then they lost their best corner in Garret Williams in the second game, along with promising rookie Will Johnson. Max Melton was also hurt, but came back to play against the 49ers. It has forced rookie Denzel Burke into the lineup and he’s performed pretty well. Kei’Trel Clark has been the other player to step into the lineup, and has also been promising. What should be a disaster, has been serviceable.
For Seattle, it will be a question of whether guys they held out against the Saints will be ready to go for a Thursday game. Julian Love, Nick Emmanwori, Devon Witherspoon, and Zach Charbonnet are all starters who were inactive Sunday but may be ready for this game. How the team would handle the return of Witherspoon is interesting considering how well Derion Kendrick has played. There is also a question that has not been answered about how Josh Jobe’s performance would impact Riq Woolen’s snaps once Witherspoon is playing. Emmanowori returning would simply mean D’Anthony Bell would be either inactive on the practice squad or on the bench.
DVOA
Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
It’s been a while since the Seahawks were the top team in DVOA after three weeks. They were 3rd last season when going in to face Detroit, but that felt artificially elevated by the QBs they faced in the first three games. The ensuing few weeks proved they were anything but a Top 5 team. This ranking feels a little different given they played the undefeated 49ers and the 2-1 Steelers. Still, the Steelers and Saints defense have undeniable weak spots, as do both offenses.
Arizona does not appear capable of the type of overpowering play Seattle experienced in Detroit at this time last season. Still, this is probably the most solid combination of offense and defense the Seahawks have played since Week 1.
The biggest mismatch by DVOA is the Cardinals run game against the Seahawks run defense. The loss of Conner only makes that a bigger question mark for Arizona. The Cardinals run defense trumps the Seahawks run offense, but Seattle has found ways to be productive in spite of a poor run game to this point.
Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cardinals key advantages on defense
The Seahawks have faced the second-highest stacked box rate (37.5%) in the NFL. Arizona has only played a stacked box on 18% of their defensive snaps (20th in the NFL). Part of why Seattle has faced that many extra defenders near the line of scrimmage is their use of 21 and 12 personnel packages with a fullback that dictates the defense to bring an extra linebacker on the field or walk a safety down. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals resist that and put extra pressure on their stout defensive line and quality safety group to hold up.
The 49ers, for example, have one of the lowest stacked box rates in the NFL (13%), but played a stacked box against Seattle 23% of the time. Arizona could do the same, but that will leave more pressure on their inexperienced cornerback room against the most explosive passing offense in the league.
Campbell is capable, even at his age, of being a destructive force against the run all on his own. Dante Stills was playing well against the run, but has struggled recently. Dalvin Tomlinson is an okay run plugger in the middle.
Budda Baker continues to be their best playmaker, but linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. had a great game against the 49ers, and can be a force as a blitzer. Safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson has been a good safety to add to Baker and Jalen Thompson. This is the best safety group Seattle will have faced to this point, which could limit explosives.
Despite their paltry sack numbers, the pass rush has been improved since last season. Arizona has generated 27 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds), tied for 2nd-most in the NFL. Sweat is tied for 3rd-most quick pressures (8).
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Don’t look now, but the Seahawks have that mythical “average offensive line” in pass protection fans have been pining after for a decade. Seattle entered last week with the 32nd ranked pass pro by ESPN’s pass block win rate. They did so well against the Saints, that ranking rose to 20th. PFF ranks them as 16th in pass blocking. They are 6th in sack rate and 9th in pressure rate, which is far from average. All of that has been aided by a decisive Sam Darnold, who is also now the top-graded passer in the NFL by PFF.
They also have become the most explosive pass offense in football. They rank 2nd in explosive passes, but they are doing that with the 3rd-lowest number of pass attempts, which makes their explosive pass rate off the charts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is blossoming into one of the best receivers in football. Tory Horton Jr. is a precocious playmaking rookie. Cooper Kupp has shown he is a viable contributor.
All of that will have the Cardinals attention. They will have to be focused on leaving more guys in coverage to help their corners and limit explosives. Other teams likely needed to see the passing offense do it again before adjusting their game plans. Seattle has put enough good on film in the pass game and bad on film in the run game to likely lead to a different approach by the Cardinals.
Seattle facing a lighter box has the chance to get right on the ground. This could be the game where Walker and Charbonnet both produce. Arizona has been very tough to run on, holding their last two opponents under 75 yards rushing. The potential absence of Robbie Ouzts could loom large. Brady Russell is a different type of player.
Darnold has feasted on split safety coverages, and that’s what the Cardinals like to play.
Arizona is 23rd in EPA per dropback in defending play action and 19th when opponents are under center. That bodes well for Seattle.
Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals key advantages on offense
Kyler Murray has played better than the offensive numbers reflect. His receivers have dropped some passes, and his run game has been nonexistent, forcing him to carry the load via scrambling. He has enjoyed some of the best pass protection in the league.
Arizona ranks 2nd in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 4th in PFF’s pass blocking grade. The run blocking has returned starkly contrasting grades. ESPN has their run block win rate as 9th-best, while PFF has their run blocking as 28th overall. Given, Conner was averaging 3.0 yards per run and Benson was averaging 2.3 YPC outside of his two explosives, the PFF grade might be closer to accurate.
Benson can bring the explosive element that Conner was less capable of producing. He is more of an outside runner, which will be interesting to see with the more duo-focused interior run scheme the Cardinals tend to run.
The biggest issue for Seattle might be Murray’s escapability and the Seahawks challenges in containing QBs in the pocket so far this season. Even Aaron Rodgers was escaping.
A player like Murray is a known escape artist, so Seattle will do less stunt and twists that can create gaps QBs run through. The Seahawks did an excellent job of this last season, so there’s no reason to think they can’t repeat the feat this time.
Trey McBride is one of the best tight ends in football, and was productive against Seattle last season. Tyrice Knight has struggled in coverage so far, allowing the 4th-most yards per coverage snap among linebackers in the NFL. Seattle may employ more Drake Thomas if McBride becomes an issue.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Seattle may have the best defensive line in football. They need to do a better job of getting the quarterback on the ground, but there is no weak link. Every part of an offense’s blocking scheme is going to be challenged, and that’s not even bringing up the potential return of Witherspoon and Emmanwori, who can create chaos with their blitzes.
Whether it is a positive or a negative to get Emmanwori back is impossible to say until he plays more than the handful of snaps he played in the opener. He could be a major impact player or could make rookie mistakes in coverage.
Witherspoon coming back will lead to some interesting decisions with Kendrick, and possibly Woolen. Love is such a huge part of this defense, he may be the most important guy to return if he is able.
There are no clear weak spots on this defense at any level. They excel against the run, can pressure with four players, and cover. Macdonald has reduced his already low blitz rate to help protect his injured secondary but that could change if those guys return.
Uchenna Nwosu took a nice step forward in his second game, and could be ready to contribute.
Seattle created two turnovers in their first two games, and should have had at least two against the Saints. Arizona only has one turnover on the season.
When teams have reached the red zone against the Seahawks, they have had to settle for field goals. They have the 3rd-ranked red zone defense and Arizona has the 19th-ranked red zone offense. They were highly reliant on Conner and their run game down there. That will have to change with his absence.
Special Teams
No special teams unit has made a bigger contribution to their team through three weeks. They have made an impact play every game. Arizona’s kicker has already missed a few kicks. The Cardinals will have to be careful with the explosive Seahawks return game.
Key to a Cardinals win
Arizona has to find rhythm in the passing game, and find ways to get Murray out of the pocket to create some explosive runs. They have to protect the football and stop the run with a light box.
Key to a Seahawks win
Getting an early lead could go a long way toward discouraging a team that is already facing a lot of doubts from fans about their direction, and has lost their emotional leader. There will be a ton of Seahawks fans, as always, and it could quickly turn into an onslaught if Arizona doesn’t stay close early. The Cardinals scored first last season in Arizona, and two Murray interceptions turned the tide. Expect a bigger dogfight this season.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!