This column usually is published every Wednesday. This is the latest it has been posted during a game week. Unusual and late feels appropriate for game that we now know will feature a 44-year-old quarterback, who has not played in the NFL in five years. Philip Rivers was confirmed to be the starter for an 8-5 Indianapolis Colts team that has dropped their last three games, and is danger of seeing the playoffs slip away.

Most reactions have been smirks and sneers. Shane Steichen and the Colts believe Rivers represents their best chance, and given the alternative would be to start an unpolished rookie in Riley Leonard, he may be right. Critics seem to think Rivers was terrible when he last played, which was in Indy, but the numbers say otherwise.

Rivers led an 11-5 Colts team to the playoffs, passing for over 4000 yards (16-game season), with 24 TDs and 11 interceptions with a 97.0 passer rating, and a respectable 79.4 PFF grade. His last game was in the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills, where they barely lost, 27-24. He threw for 309 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, while not being sacked.

He has experience taking advantage of great tight ends (remember Antonio Gates?), and Colts rookie Tyler Warren, was on his way to that title before things have slowed of late. Seattle has been vulnerable against tight ends. If any part of his game relied on movement or arm strength, this might be a complete farce. It still might be, but Rivers has always been a quick time to throw guy (2.38 seconds his final season), and beats defenses with his brain more than a big arm.

The reality for Rivers is that this Seahawks defense is a tough matchup for any quarterback, and they continue to get better. Julian Love played his first snaps in a long time against Atlanta, and figures to be back to full game reps now. Stationary passers have had even bigger problems facing this defensive line, and Mike Macdonald remains one of the best defensive minds in the league. His ability to create unblocked pressures (213, ranking 1st in the NFL) could be a particular problem for the stiff Rivers in the pocket.

Steichen is a very good coach, and will have his team ready to challenge Seattle. The betting public does not see it that way. Seattle is as much as a 14-point favorite. A Seahawks blowout might come more from the offensive side of the ball, where the Colts have some particular weaknesses due to injury.

Indy will lean on their very good offensive line and All-Pro running back, Jonathan Taylor, to take pressure off Rivers and attempt to possess the ball for long drives. Weather, as of now, is looking like it will be dry during the game. That would help a Seattle passing game. Should it rain, the chances this becomes close increases.

Lineup Notes

The Colts had been one of the better run defenses in the NFL until Week 10. They have given up at least 100 yards rushing each week since then, including 140+ in two of those games. What changed? DT DeForest Bucker has been injured. His window to return to the team opened this week, but he was ruled out for this game.

Indy had seen enough of a chance to make a run that they traded two first round picks for CB Sauce Gardner. Unfortunately, Gardner was also injured and will be unavailable this week. Free agent CB Charvarius Ward, formerly of the 49ers, had been playing great ball for the Colts before being hurt and now was placed on IR with a concussion. The corner room saw veteran Xavien Howard retire four weeks into the season. That is a lot of hits for many of the best players on the Colts defense.

Quarterback Daniel Jones is out, which has led to Rivers. A lesser known name is WR and KR/PR, Anthony Gould, of Oregon State. He has been a big part of the Colts special teams, but he will be out this week as well. Finally, the Colts have been fortunate to have great health on their offensive line. Right tackle Braden Smith, however, will miss his first game. That will mean rookie Jalen Travis will get his first start in the NFL. Travis is a freak athlete at 6’8″ 340+ pounds, who registered a 35″ vertical leap at the NFC Combine, while running a 5.14, 40-yard dash. He played well in relief of Smith last week.

Seattle is in relatively good shape. Jalen Sundell and Eric Saubert are likely to come off IR this week. Sundell is expected to start at center and Saubert rejoins the squad just as fellow TE Elijah Arroyo has been ruled out with a knee injury.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

The numbers are somewhat misleading as many of the key players who helped the Colts to these lofty heights will not play in this game. Still, it is worth remembering that this has been one of the most efficient and dangerous teams in the NFL, especially on offense. Their run game is fantastic, but has dropped off the last three weeks. The biggest single advantage here is the Seahawks pass offense versus the Colts pass defense. That could be even more pronounced with both Gardner and Ward out. There are no true weaknesses for Indy through the DVOA lens. The defense, though, is more mediocre than good.

Seahawks Offense vs Colts Defense

Colts key advantages on defense

The injuries have robbed this group of many of their best playmakers. Buckner also elevated the play of guys like Laiatu Latu, who was rising as a pass rusher until his interior disruptor went on IR. Cam Bynum is a nice safety who can take the ball away. LB Germaine Pratt can have some moments. There really are not a lot of obvious advantages for Indianapolis on this side of the ball. They have taken the ball away, and their rush defense looks good by the numbers, until you see how they have fared lately.

It is also worth noting that they played the 3rd-easiest schedule of offenses so far this season, and this game marks the start of them having the 9th-toughest slate of offenes left to play. They have yet to beat a Top 10 DVOA offense. Seattle ranks 8th.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

This is a game where the pass offense should gain some confidence. The Colts are a middling pass rush team when healthy, and they are not healthy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has torched just about everyone this season, including top corners like Derek Stingley and AJ Terrell. No player close to elite will line up across from JSN in this one. Rashid Shaheed started to gain some chemistry with Sam Darnold in last week’s practice, which translated into his most productive game in Seattle. This could make it two straight. Cooper Kupp also got in the endzone and will have favorable matchups against the second level defenders on the Colts defense.

The run game has gained steam, and could continue against a Colts defense thin in the middle. A Seattle offense that runs the ball effectively is the most surefire way to make this a comfortable win. The Colts will have a ton of trouble slowing down the Seahawks pass game. The dam will break if the run game becomes an issue as well.

Colts Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Colts key advantages on offense

The Colts have a terrific offensive line. Every player is good. Smith being out certainly hurts, but the other four guys are good enough to cause headaches for the Seattle line. This will be one of their bigger tests of the year.

Taylor was the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year before slowing down of late. He is a fierce and explosive runner who can carry a team. As much attention as there will be on Rivers, the ability of Taylor to produce on the ground is what gives the Colts their best chance to win.

Indy has a quality stable of receivers who can make big plays, including deep threat Alex Pierce. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. are dangerous as well. Warren completes the picture as a tough and reliable tight end.

Steichen is a good offensive mind, who has created a lot of scheme advantage throughout the season. Even if Daniel Jones was playing at QB, the Seahawks game plan would remain to stop the Colts rushing attack. That is where their bread is buttered. Atlanta had some success in the first half last week. The Colts have a better line and a better play caller. This is a strength versus strength situation. If the Colts are able to command enough attention in the run game, Rivers could make enough quick passes to put up points.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

As smart as Rivers is, he has had three practices to get on the same page as his receivers. That can show up in 3rd down, red zone, and two minute drill situations. They will run fewer choice routes given he and receivers might make different reads. That will force some simplification or some risk.

Matt Stafford has been the MVP in the league, but even he struggled against the Seahawks defense. Immobile quarterbacks are generally not a great matchup against Seattle. The Colts line may be good enough to create a safe pocket, but they would be the first.

Seattle has playmakers at every level, and are as smart as they are athletic. Rivers could not ask for a tougher matchup in his first game back.

Special Teams

This has been a good Colts special teams unit. The lack of Gould hurts their return game, but their coverage teams are still strong.

Key to a Colts win

Offensive line play. The Colts need to protect Rivers, both with a good run game and when dropping back. Controlling the clock with the run game is their best chance to limit Seahawks possessions and get Seattle pressing.

Key to a Seahawks win

Score a lot. This is a game where even if the Colts manage to be productive on offense, they are unlikely to put up more than 25 points. Seattle is the second-leading scoring team in the NFL. They have the advantages needed to score 30+ in this one.