The quarterback had a turnover problem. His fumbles on the season (10) were only eclipsed by his interceptions (13). The team was dismissed heading into the season, with an over/under set at 8.0 wins and +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl. It all was going to come down to a final game on the road against their division rival to win the division and the top seed in the NFC. Their rival had sustained injury after injury, but their resourceful quarterback was known for torturing opponents by evading pressure and making big plays. Meet the 2019 San Francisco 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo had one fewer interceptions that year than Sam Darnold has this season, and the same number of fumbles. There was not much buzz about them in the preseason as they were coming off a four win campaign. They were scuffling a bit, losers of two games in their last four, headed into a game in Seattle on the final week of the season. The Seahawks were so banged up they had to coax Robert Turbin and Marshawn Lynch out of retirement to play in that game. Seattle still managed to take the 49ers all the way to the final play thanks to Russell Wilson. If John Ursua had just run his route to the proper depth, Seattle would have won the game and the division. Instead, rookie linebacker Dre Greenlaw brought down Jacob Hollister just short of the goal line. That was considered a turning point for the 49ers franchise, who went on to win two playoff games and make the Super Bowl. It is time to return the favor.
The Seahawks played a game yesterday against the Carolina Panthers. It was ugly on offense, sterling on defense, and far too much for the Panthers to handle. Darnold had another fumble and another interception. A game where the Panthers offense managed barely over 60 yards in the first two quarters was tied at halftime. It is one thing to see the Seahawks offense struggle to score against good defenses or good pass rushes like they have seen the past month. It is far more discouraging to see them struggle against a truly bad defense.
The Panthers don’t get after the quarterback, but registered 3 sacks. The Panthers don’t defend the pass well, but held the Seahawks to 125 yards through the air. If not for a resurgent run game, this game might have been a crushing defeat. Zach Charbonnet and the offensive line had other ideas.
One game after churning out 171 yards in a miraculous win over the Rams, Seattle put up 163 yards on the ground against the Panthers. They are now averaging 135.6 yards on the ground over the past eight games. Guess how much that 2019 49ers squad averaged? If you said 144 yards rushing per game, you are correct!
The reality is the Seahawks need the run game. It is not as sexy the Jaxon Smith-Njigba fireworks in the pass game we saw for the first 12 weeks, but it is foundational to the formula necessary to keep winning. Teams have discovered they do not need to match the Seahawks heavy personnel (2 TE or 1 FB) with base defense. They are playing more two-high safety looks to take away explosive passes.
This was especially evident for a Panthers team that lives in Cover 3, with a single-high safety, but chose to play more two-high against the Seahawks. When an opponent goes against their bread-and-butter, and it works, that means the book is out on Seattle and it’s not a complicated read.
To beat these sorts of defenses, Seattle needs to do at least three things:
- Punish defenses with the run
- Be quicker to take check-downs
- Attack the middle of the field, especially underneath
It is not an accident that A.J. Barner has come on of late. It is not a coincidence that Ken Walker III has put up his best receiving games of the season against the Rams. But it is ultimately an effective running game that causes defenses to consider bringing an extra man down into the box to stop it, which then opens up play-action and the deep passing game.
Teams are comfortable with the Seahawks gaining 130+ yards on the ground right now. Or, at least, they prefer that version of the Seahawks offense to the one that was setting records for explosive passing earlier. The run-centric type of offense is not aesthetically pleasing, but when paired with a great defense and special teams, it can lead to a lot of wins.
You generally need to a quarterback who can win a close game at the end as more running usually means fewer possessions and closer games. That has not been as much of a requirement for Seattle against non-elite opponents. Three of their last five wins have come by at least 17 points.
It was necessary against the Rams, and Darnold passed that test more than once in that game. The most optimistic way to look at the state of the offense is that they are transitioning into a style of play that is more suited for the playoffs. It is rare for offenses to light up the scoreboard in the postseason. There is bad weather, good defenses, and plenty of film for coaches to scout.
Perhaps this is a reverse metamorphosis, where the beautiful butterfly becomes the grounded caterpillar. There is no way to prove it, but the chance to see the way defenses are playing them for eight weeks may actually help Seattle avoid a rude awakening in the playoffs. They are more calcified upfront than they were earlier.
All four of the Seahawks most efficient rushing performances (by EPA/rush) have come since Week 12. Their four lowest stuffed rates (percentage of rushing attempts that gain 0 or negative yards) have all come in that time as well. Both Charbonnet and Walker have made major contributions. Robbie Ouzts feels like he has started to make some progress, and the return of Eric Saubert has helped.
They will face a 49ers defense that gives up yards on the ground and in the air. Their defense ranks 26th in DVOA. The only defenses Seattle has faced who are that bad are the Titans and the Commanders. By no means does that make this an easy game, but it should put some things in perspective for a Seahawks offense that ranks 11th, despite their uglification.
Darnold will continue to be the lightning rod for criticism, and he is certainly a big part of the problem. Klint Kubiak and the offensive line, though, must do a better job of finding a repeatable and comfortable game plan for Darnold to execute. His receivers, beyond JSN, need to uncover and make tough catches.
That would be easier if Rashid Shaheed was not thrown to the ground after he was already out of bounds, and lost to a concussion. It would be easier if there was any reason to think Tory Horton Jr. was coming back soon. The health of Shaheed is going to be key on what is a short week for both teams.
Barner continues to be a bright light, both for his play and his personality. The offense is bereft of energizers. There is no Lynch to run people over and drip with swag. There is no Doug Baldwin Jr. to wake people up on the sideline when they are not playing to their standard. Heck, there isn’t even a Breno Giacomini to get a personal foul for being too rough with defenders. Barner stands out for the attitude he brings as much as the plays he makes.
He may have graduated from being a nice story that has outplayed his draft position to a foundational staple of this offense. The more he becomes a threat that defenses have to worry about, the harder it will be for them to stay in these shell defenses.
Spending this much time on the struggles of an offense may be confusing for a team that just scored 27 points and broke the franchise record for most points in a season. This team can win a Super Bowl if the rest of the team plays almost exactly like they are playing and the offense becomes more reliable. The defense and special teams are already championship caliber. They would have to be historically good to carry an offense this inefficient to a championship. While not out of the question, the odds are higher this offense can improve than the defense can reach an even higher level.
DeMarcus Lawrence continued his remarkable season with a sack, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. Julian Love showed the guile of a fox, baiting Bryce Young to throw into what appeared to be a wide open window until Love pounced and picked off the pass.
Most impressive in this game were the number of open field tackles a variety of players made. Ty Okada, Uchenna Nwosu, Devon Witherspoon, Ernest Jones IV, and Love. Nick Emmanowori made another big play while being blocked on the perimeter to shutdown a screen.
This was one of the best tackling games the Seahawks have had all year, and maybe in a few years. The margins were tight enough early that missing even one of those open-field tackles could have swung the game. Carolina had no pass plays gain more than 8 yards. Their 40 net yards passing was the lowest by a Seahawks opponent since 1998 when Bobby Hoying of the Eagles had just 12 net passing yards in a 38-0 Seattle blowout in Philly.
As good as the defense played, there is an area they need to improve. The pass rush has fallen off of late. There were plays where Seattle got some quick pressure and flushed Young, but there were plenty of other plays where he had time in the pocket. The Seahawks pressure rate was around 33%, which was one of the five worst pressure rates of the season.
It is possible the defensive linemen are wearing down. They have been rocks all year, but it’s been a while since either Leonard Williams or Byron Murphy II had a sack. Lawrence and Nwosu had nice games on the edge in this one, but it just has not been the same intimidating pass rush it had been most of the season.
Mike Macdonald appeared to dial up more pressures in this game, and he will need to be his absolute best the rest of the way. A great defense without a great pass rush will eventually be beaten. A ferocious pass rush can cover up a lot of other mistakes and deficits.
All attention now turns to the final week of the season. A red hot 49ers offense is eager to prove this is still their division. The #1 defense in football, per DVOA, resides in Seattle. Forgotten in the mess of the season opening loss to San Francisco was the season-high 60% pressure rate Seattle put on Brock Purdy, the interceptions he threw, and the frustration from Kyle Shanahan in trying to decode Macdonald’s defense. Emmanwori was lost on the second snap and threw the whole defensive game plan into disarray. Ty Okada was asked to play big nickel and was terrible in that game before becoming one of the steadiest contributors as the season wore on. Derick Hall will return from his suspension with fresh legs and a point to prove.
Growth is rarely linear. It is often accompanied by discomfort or even pain. Seattle has been far from perfect, but they have demonstrated excellence in all facets of football over the course of this season. That has led them to the most wins in the NFL, the largest point differential, and a chance to lock up the top seed in the conference. The 49ers love to live in the past. Seattle has a chance to ruin their present. There are no easy paths to the top seed or to the Super Bowl. The steeper the climb, the better the view.