Free Agent Big Board

After nearly completing my offseason analysis for the Seahawks, I am now in the process of building out my free agent big board. The big board ranks players, based on a variety of criteria, to determine which make the most sense for the Seahawks to pursue in free agency.

I ranked about 60 players last year, and found it a useful reference once free agency started. This year, I plan to rank many more, and am doing it position-by-position.

Scoring factors

ImpactHow much can the player impact the Seahawks in 2016?
Longevity – How much can the player impact the Seahawks over the next 3+ years?
Scheme fitHow well does the player fit how Seattle plays, and what they ask of that position?
Need How much do the Seahawks need to add a player that possesses these talents? This may differ by position. For example, the Seahawks need a left tackle more than center.
Affordability – What are the chances the Seahawks can afford this player?
Risk How likely is this player to earn the contract they would command? This takes into account confidence in a player’s performance, injury, off-field, and other things that could impact that question. A higher score means more risk.

 

The formula:

(impact * 2) + (longevity * 2) + (scheme fit * 2) + (need * 1.5) + (affordability * 5.5) – (risk*5) = Score

 

Offensive Tackles Big Board

freeagenttacklebigboard
I am projecting Mitchell Schwartz to cost roughly the same as Russell Okung, and I think Schwartz may be a better player. He gets a better risk score than Okung due to durability. Donald Penn scores well because he is a quality tackle who should be available at an affordable price.

Kelvin Beachum is coming off an injury, which could keep his price down a bit in the market. He has some interesting upside. Jermon Bushrod was recently cut by the Saints, and shows up here due to his mixture of talent and affordability. Will Beatty is an aging vet coming off an injury, which makes him very affordable.

Cordy Glenn shows up at #6, which janks me a bit, and highlights a flaw in the formula. He’s too expensive and won’t be in Seattle. The fact that he is a very good player, and a young one, forces him up the list.

Many of the rest of these players are JAGs (just another guy). Jo Barksdale could be one to watch. Some might be surprised to see Andre Smith and Bobby Massie so far down the list. I am not a big fan of either, and think there is a real chance they will not earn their contracts.

11 Responses

  1. Raymond

    Penn and Draft a Tackle who can eventually be groomed to take over

    • Paul Goode

      Penn projects at $7-8MM/yr. It’s hard to see Seattle investing that in a player who will be 33 when the season starts. Penn did play 100% of snaps last year, so his durability is attractive.

      The oldest players on the roster now are John Ryan (34), TJ (32), and Tukuafu (32) — a punter, a backup QB, and a fullback who played 19% of offensive snaps.

      • Raymond

        It would be a stop gap and 7M for a LT isn’t bad at all. Less than Okung made and Penn is better

      • Paul Goode

        It’s a good idea and I’m not against it. I just don’t see them doing it. Plainly, they have to do something.

        Regardless of position, paying a stopgap LT as much as Michael Bennett and more than Avril, Baldwin, Wagner, and Wright seems unlikely. Plus, the OL isn’t an area where they invest: Britt has the highest current cap number among the OLs ($942K). Whether they should invest in the OL is another question — right now, they don’t.

        Penn hasn’t played on a winning team in five years. If PC/JS think that he is a difference-maker and if they can sell that to the players who went to two straight SBs, more power to them.

      • Raymond

        LT is like the 2nd highest paid position in football. Don’t have to sell it to anyone

  2. Paul Goode

    So, interpreting the chart in terms of value, might Seattle consider a JAG like Bushrod under certain conditions (i.e., the desire for a short-term, stop-gap)? JB is above the median in impact (6), need (9), and affordability (6), and one off the median in terms of fit (7). He’s below in longevity (3), but at the median in risk (8).

    • Raymond

      He just had shoulder surgery. Injuries, decline in play, age why he was cut after already being a back up.

      Expected to be a swing tackle, really don’t want to count on injured lineman as the starter.

      • Paul Goode

        Of course, anyone would have to pass a physical. They’ll probably wait on Okung to see if they can get him for a one-year deal.

  3. Raymond

    If the higher the score the better and as stated in the article Schwartz is a better risk than Okung, shouldn’t his risk score of a 4 be higher than Okungs 6?

    In other words, low risk a 10 and high risk a 1

    because more points the better

  4. Dániel Erdős

    Glenn will be franchise tagged, ain’t he?

    I’m absolutely frightened they won’t change the way they deal with OL, and they won’t gonna get any big name this year in FA or the draft :-/ (read some interviews with JS, and he didn’t think it should be absolutely prioritized…obviously it could have been just predraft/preFA talk, but it gives me nightmares)

    If a miracle would happen, I hope they either get Osemele or a big name tackle.
    Seems like there are a lot of quality guards in this year’s draft (or tackle who could be better at guards), and not a lot good OTs at 26th or later.
    But not sure who should we get as tackle…We could play I think Gilliam as RT (or fight for the position with Britt), and do OK, but we should get a quality LT too.
    Could we play Schwartz at LT well? Or Osemel could be better as LT/LG (depending on the rest of the possible LTs/LGs)?

    Lets say Sweezy, and Okung goes.
    We’ll keep Lewis and Jeanpierre for C, Nowak, Sokoli for C/G, Glowinski as G, Bailey and Britt as G/T, Gilliam, Poole, Schwenke as T…who will most likely the Hawks go after FA? Will they draft OL in the 1st/2nd round or only later?

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