Another mock! This is the second one I’ve done so far this year and it follows the same ground rules as the previous one. This second one has a theme though, and it’s based on a tweet from Adam Schefter a couple weeks ago:
That Seattle will be looking to trade down is the worst kept secret in the league, if it can be considered a secret at all. That Cleveland is looking to move up is great news, but it’s unlikely to be a typical trade back were the two teams to reach an agreement. That’s because Cleveland’s second and third round picks don’t add up to enough value per the trade chart.
Seattle: 800 points
Pick 21 = 800 points
Cleveland: 600 points
Pick 49 = 410 points
Pick 80 = 190 points
That’s a 200 point gap, which is the equivalent of the 78th pick in the draft. There’s a couple ways Cleveland could make up that difference. The simplest would of course be to add more picks to the deal. If Cleveland were to offer all of their picks it’d add up 759 points. That leaves them 41 points short but I’d be Seattle would actually accept such an overwhelming number of picks. The problem of course is that Cleveland is very unlikely to give away an entire draft for one pick.
The other option then is for Cleveland to dip into the picks from the 2020 draft. As mentioned above, the difference in points is equal to a pick in the middle of the third round. With the standard adjustment for a pick a year out being a full round higher, Cleveland would likely have to offer Seattle their 2020 second round pick to make the deal work.
So that’s what we’re gonna do.
Seattle trades 1:21 to Cleveland for 2:17, 3:16, and a 2020 2nd round pick.
There’s obviously some permutations of this trade that would work. Cleveland may be able to lower the cost from a 2020 second round pick to a 2020 third round pick by throwing in pick 119, or picks 144 and 170, or some other creative additions to the trade. But for the purpose of this mock we’re going to keep things simple and go with a 2020 second rounder.
Would Cleveland actually do this deal? While it’s certainly fair, teams don’t trade second rounders easily. And I should probably note that, for what it’s worth, Fanspeak rejected the trade for Cleveland.
And what about Seattle, would they be willing to move down 28 picks from their first round pick? It’s a big jump but, if they’re anything like the folks on Twitter, I think it’s something they’d seriously consider.
That’s all fine and good in a vacuum, but what about when you’re sitting there on draft day staring at a bunch of players you’re not going to be able to draft? Even though I went into this having decided to make this trade, I nearly flinched when I saw who was still available.
Players available at 21
Jerry Tillery (DL)
Nasir Adderley (S)
N’Keal Harry (WR)
I’m not especially high on Harry, but Tillery and Adderley are two guys that I’d love to see in a Hawks jersey. Tillery is especially interesting as he’s a very impressive interior pass rusher. Tillery, whos a touch undersized as a defensive end, moves like a defensive end and could probably project to play outside some depending on the packages Seattle wanted to play.
James Thomas has been banging the drum on Tillery for a while and put together a great thread on him.
Adderley was another I was sad to say goodbye to, not expecting him to last till pick 49. But…
With the 17th pick in the 2nd round, Seattle selects Nasir Adderley, S.
This was pretty unexpected for me, as Adderley is considered among the best safeties in pretty good safety class. For him to still be available at the midway point in the second round feels like a gift after making the big trade back for draft capital next year.
My plan was actually to try to trade down from here a few spots in order to grab an additional pick, but decided not to pass on Adderley a second time. Considering the safeties still alive, perhaps I should have.
Players available at 2:17
WR: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Paris Campbell
S: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Juan Thornhill, Darnell Savage Jr, Deionte Thompson, Taylor Rapp, Johnathan Abram
Our first trade increased our pick total from 4 to 5 in 2019, not nearly enough. Then, instead of trading back from 49, we selected Adderley. This cost us significant trade value, so there’s little choice but to trade back here and acquire a few more picks. That hurts, because Omenihu is a great player and a great fit for Seattle, and it’s already very surprising to see him still alive at this point. Good news though….
With the 20th pick in the 3nd round, Seattle selects Charles Omenihu, DL.
I think Omenihu still being available here is even more surprising than Adderley still being available at 49. In fact, I won’t be surprised at all if Omenihu goes higher than Adderley.
I’m going to skip the in depth breakdown of Omenihu because I’ve been beaten to the punch here as well, this time by cmikespinmove over at the Beast Pode. I’ll just add that Omenihu is a very easy player to fall in love with. He’s ferocious, balanced against both the run and pass, long, and only 22. I don’t know that he has the highest pass rushing ceiling, which is far and away the most important part of his job, but he’s the kind of player I’d love to take a shot on.
Of the players still available at this point, it’s the same list as above minus Hall, Jenkins, Polite, and Hooker.
Seattle trades 3:25 to the New York Giants for 3:31 and 6:7.
Another jump back, bringing us up to 7 total. This trade is slightly in favor of New York, with 145 points outgoing and 139 (120 + 19) outgoing, but my main concern is acquiring more selections so I’m not worried about it. I’m also not sweating the details of a deal like this too much because I don’t necessarily think the Giants are going to want to jump up 6 spots at the bottom of the third. But maybe Washington does (96 and 173, 148 points), or the Jaguars do (98 and 178, 128 points), or the Chargers do (91 and 200, 147 points). Some approximation of this trade will likely be available to Seattle, especially if Seattle is willing to give a discount in order to add picks. This line of thinking applies to most of the trades I make.
With the 31st pick in the 3nd round, Seattle selects Isaiah Johnson, CB.
I selected Johnson with the 7th pick of the fourth round in the previous mock and I’m picking him again in roughly the same spot here. The fit, both as a player and where he’s available in the draft in these mocks, makes too much sense. He’s a more or less prototypical Seahawks corner who may be available after Seattle has filled a couple of their more pressing needs. There are other corner options that could be available here, such as Lonnie Johnson, but in this mock he went a few picks earlier.
With the 22nd pick in the 4th round, Seattle selects Maxx Crosby, Edge.
Crosby is both an already productive player and one with lots of upside. The pressure rate is the most important number for him, but he also had 18.5 sacks and 35.5 tackles for a loss the last two years at Eastern Michigan. He’s not a small school try hard though, Crosby was fifth most athletic edge player according to SPARQ. And he’s still figuring out what to do with all this size and athleticism, having grown significantly in college.
That continued learning process, along with his likely specialization as a pass rusher, is why Crosby gets this far. He’s still a work in progress, but there’s a lot to work with.
Here, Crosby is pretty well stonewalled by the tackle. But you see the hand use, a variety of moves, and the effort that you want. He needs polish and continued coaching to iron out some other technique issues, like this play where he hops in place at the snap:
If Seattle’s coaching staff can get everything to click for Crosby, he should be a productive rotational member of the line with starter upside. Worth the price at the bottom of the fourth.
Seattle trades 4:27 to Buffalo for 4:29 and 7:11.
Our last trade is another small trade back to pick up and extra pick. It’s an almost perfectly even trade, with 43 points outgoing and 42.5 points incoming. Like the previous trade, this may not be exactly the deal that gets done. But there are several different trades that could work here. 30 of the picks in the seventh round picks are worth 1 point, and the highest is only worth 5. So it’s easy to find deals where Seattle can pick up something this late.
Alternatively, Seattle could pick up a pick in this range from one of the earlier trades. Cleveland could throw in 7:7, valued at 2.6 points, for instance.
With the 29th pick in the 4th round, Seattle selects David Sills V, WR.
Sills checks a couple boxes for Seattle. At 6’3 and 211lbs, he adds size to a group without a lot of it. Skill-wise, Sills is a deep ball specialist that should pair well with Russ. He averaged 983 yards the last two seasons on 15.7 yards per catch. Unlike Hall, who I took in the previous mock, Sills doesn’t rely on pure speed to get open deep. Sills instead combines quality routes and size at the catch point to be effective.
You can see both those at work on this touchdown. Sills gets a clean release, sells the screen, and then boxes out the corner to make the catch.
Again, Sills gets a clean release on this play with the corner blitzing. He quickly breaks down the safety and has plenty of long speed to create and keep separation for the long touchdown.
He also does a beautiful job high pointing.
Where Sills absolutely must improve is in his ability to beat press coverage.
If you’re going to make your money as a deep ball receiver, you have to control the redline better than this.
That’s not to say he can’t do these things. He scored two touchdown against Kansas State facing press coverage. It’s just an area that needs consistency.
Another concern with Sills is concentration drops. Every receiver has a few, but it’s something to watch with Sills.
With the 21st pick in the 5th round, Seattle selects Dontavius Russell, DT.
Russell is your prototypical big bodied run stuffing defensive tackle. He can control the point of attack, penetrate into the backfield, and just generally muck things up against the run.
The downside on Russell is obvious. He’s at best a two down player, offering you next to nothing as a pass rusher. He’s also not going to be a particularly dynamic playmaker against the run. He’ll control his blocker and can make plays going forward, but his sideline to sideline work is lacking (though not for lack of effort).
With the 7th pick in the 6th round, Seattle selects BJ Autry, G.
Autry, at 6’3 and 337lbs, follows in the mold of Fluker, 6’5 and 339lbs, Iupati, 6’5 and 331lbs, and Jordan Simmons, 6’4 and 339lbs. Though a couple inches shorter than Fluker, he has similarly long arms: 35 ⅜ inches for Autry and a whopping 36 ¾ inches for Fluker.
Of course, Fluker and Iupati were both first round picks while Autry is available early in the sixth round. So we should get ahead of ourselves with this comparison.
Autry is out of Jacksonville State, so tape of him is hard to come by and the level of competition isn’t great. But Autry did attend the Senior Bowl, where he played out of position at left tackle.
The tape is a mess and you can find areas of improvement on most plays. None the less, I was impressed by Autry for a few reasons. First, his willingness to take on a challenge. This was a major opportunity for Autry to showcase his skills and, for whatever reason, he spent that opportunity playing a position not at all suited to his skills. And, while it wasn’t always pretty, he survived. Obviously playing left tackle is not in his future, but he shows enough to make you optimistic about how he would handle playing guard in the NFL.
Seattle has little pressing need on the offensive line, so a low risk flier like Autry makes sense.
With the 11th pick in the 7th round, Seattle selects Jordan Miller, CB.
There’s mounting evidence that coverage is the most important component of a defense, and the Seahawks have a good track record of taking corners like Miller and getting solid production out of them. Miller unfortunately is unlikely to be a nickel corner, which is Seattle’s biggest need, but he does fit the mold their boundry corners. He’s slim, at just 186lbs, but has the height (6’1) and length (32 ⅞ inches) that Seattle likes in their boundry corners. Miller is additional competition for Flowers and Griffin, neither of which should be viewed as having locked down their starting spots for years to come. And as a seventh round pick, if Miller can simply add competent depth he’ll be worth the pick.
Through four trades we added 4 picks to the 2019 draft, giving us 8 total, and a 2019 second rounder. Seattle prefers to be up around 10 picks but, considering we made the trade off for a high pick next year, I’m pretty happy being able to double the number of picks in 2019.
I’m honestly a little disappointed with how the first two picks went, as I’m skeptical of how realistic Adderley at 49 and Omenihu at 84 will be. Should things actually work out like this, I imagine there will be many fans doing backflips on Friday night. After those two picks we hit several of Seattles needs: pass rusher, wide receiver, and run stopper. Johnson, Autry, and Miller all add depth, with Johnson in particular having a real shot at pushing for a starting job. To be able to add this group of players while giving up draft capital to improve next year’s draft would be a near pipe dream.