No matter what an NFL coach or player tells you, not every game is equal. Beating the Saints, even by 31 points, does not prove a lot about what your team is capable of accomplishing. Seattle won their fair share of those types of games last season, albeit rarely by a comfortable margin. They struggled, though, when going up against the true playoff teams and championship contenders. The Lions scored at will. The 49ers, before they fell apart, blew the doors off the Seahawks in Seattle. The Bills did the same. Green Bay ran right through the improved Seattle defense and the Vikings won a close game late thanks to a guy named Sam Darnold.

Their first chance at redemption came in the season opener against the 49ers. They fell short again. One could argue their win over the now 3-1 Steelers proves they are different. Something about their geriatric quarterback and flawed defense makes that game a little less impressive. This week, however, is different. This week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to town with legitimate belief they can make a Super Bowl run. They have one of the most gritty and irrepressible quarterbacks in the game with Baker Mayfield. They have one of the best left tackles in Tristin Wirfs. Big Vita Vea can ruin any teams day on the defensive line.

They are 3-1, with their only loss coming to the undefeated Super Bowl Champion Eagles, in a game where they held Philadelphia without a completed pass in the second half. They have overcome a bevy of injuries, and will have to do it again this week. The numbers are not all that impressive, but if you watch this team play, you can see the belief they have in the inevitability of a win.

They have what the Seahawks want: respect.

Seattle cannot count on poor decisions from Kyler Murray or immobility with Aaron Rodgers. Mayfield will continue to throw haymakers no matter how far his team is behind or how many times he is knocked to the ground. He almost seems to feed off adversity and violence.

This game sets up similarly to the Packers contest last season. Seattle enters with momentum and people’s attention. Winning this game would change perceptions outside the locker room, and reinforce confidence within. The Bucs are not a perfect team. They are not a healthy team. They are a doorway to bigger dreams for a Seahawks team that has not yet earned access to contender status. This one should be memorable.

Lineup notes

Tampa is beat up. Their right tackle, Luke Goedeke, is on injured reserve (IR). Their right guard, Cody Mauch, is also on IR. Wide receiver Jalen McMillan is not yet back from IR, and future Hall of Fame receiver, Mike Evans, is not yet back from a hamstring injury. Now, they might be missing cornerback Jamel Dean and backup Benjamin Morrison, who both got MRIs this week. They also could be without starting running back, Bucky Irving, who is battling a foot/ankle injury and had an MRI of his own. They also lost defensive tackle, Greg Gaines, against the Eagles after putting DT Calijah Kancey on IR earlier. Edge Haason Reddick had to leave the game but there is more optimism he could play this week.

The Bucs did get back their elite left tackle, Tristin Wirfs, and receiver Chris Godwin, but this team is decimated right now. Keep in mind that many of these injuries were there before the Eagles game, and Tampa Bay still nearly beat the undefeated Philly squad.

For Seattle, the big news should be the return of Nick Emmanwori. The rookie only played a couple snaps before spraining his ankle against the 49ers in Week 1. His return will mean the team will play a lot more big nickel that has Emmanwori on the field with Devon Witherspoon and Josh Jobe outside. That will mean a lot less Riq Woolen than we have seen to this point. Swing tackle Josh Jones may not yet be back from his toe injury and DeMarcus Lawrence could be missing after a thigh injury in Arizona.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

Seattle retains the top spot in DVOA rankings for the second straight week. They also boast the #1 defense and special teams. The offense is not too shabby either, ranking 6th, driven by the 2nd most efficient pass offense in football.

Tampa has mostly middling or worse DVOA rankings, except for their run defense that ranks first. Part of what makes this a weird team is that their offense with Mayfield has been impressive, but it’s their defense that ranks well in these, and other metrics.

The special teams gap is notable. More on that later.

Tampa has struggled to slow down running backs as receivers, with Bijan Robinson going for 100 receiving yards Week 1.

Seahawks Offense vs Bucs Defense

Bucs key advantages on defense

Vea is a monster in the middle. He can take over any snap. Calais Campbell caused some problems last week. Vea is an even bigger headache. Reddick and Yaya Diaby can create pressure from the edge. Antoine Winfield is a playmaker at safety, and rookie cornerback Jacob Parrish has played well in the slot.

They have the second highest pressure rate in the league, but do it differently than Seattle. They blitz at the 7th-highest rate (34%), more than twice as much as the Seahawks. That has made them a little more vulnerable to the big play, ranking around the middle in explosive plays surrendered. It is worth noting that Sam Darnold has the 2nd-best PFF grade among NFL quarterbacks when opponents blitz. He has the highest big-time throw rate (8.9%) in those situations, and only one turnover-worthy play. His average depth of target on those throws is a league-high 12.6 yards downfield, meaning he hunts explosive plays when opponents blitz.

Having the top run defense by DVOA and EPA tells you this will be a rough game for Seattle to get their sluggish running game off the ground. This is also the third-best 3rd down defense in football. That helps them allow the 4th-fewest yards per drive in the league.

They play zero safety looks at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. That marries with their blitz looks. It’s worth noting that the Seahawks have not performed well against Cover 0 so far, ranking 25th in EPA/dropback and 24th in DVOA.

Tampa is also 3rd in the NFL in EPA/play against under center looks, which Seattle deploys almost 60% of the time.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a walking mismatch no matter where he lines up, what route he runs, and no matter who is guarding him. The connection with him and Darnold has been as good as any in the NFL through four weeks. A battered secondary with a thin defensive front could lead to more explosive plays.

Seattle is the best 12 personnel offense in football, and they may just be getting warmed up after deploying it heavily against the Cardinals. They lead the league in EPA/play from that grouping, and have a nearly 50/50 run/pass split which makes them less predictable.

The Bucs linebackers have been playing poorly, especially in coverage. The great Lavonte David may finally be showing his age, and SirVocea Dennis ranks 59th of 63 linebackers by PFF grade. His coverage grade (27.6) ranks dead last. David is not much better at 47th of 63.

That could mean Elijah Arroyo makes a bigger dent in the game plan, and we may also see Cooper Kupp matched up on linebackers. That group has also been vulnerable to backs as receivers, which could mean Ken Walker III and/or Zach Charbonnet make a dent in the passing game.

Tory Horton could be the guy Tampa forgets as they focus attention on JSN. This would be an excellent game for him to make an impact.

Bucs Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Bucs key advantages on offense

This really defies the numbers, but Mayfield is the guy to watch. He wills the team to points they would not otherwise get. Rookie Emeka Egbuka has been terrific. Godwin looked rusty in his first game, but might be better this week. Irving is a great running back, but his availability is in doubt. That would mean a healthy dose of Rachaad White, who does have a higher success rate than Irving and the only Bucs rushing touchdown on the season.

Wirfs is a great left tackle. The rest of the line is suspect.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

This is one of those games where you can kind of throw out the numbers and matchups, and really focus on whether Seattle can contain Mayfield in the pocket and take advantage of his propensity to force throws. As good as he has been, there have also been the biggest number of turnover-worthy plays in the league (9). The fact that he has only 1 interception despite all those dangerous throws should mean a regression to the mean is coming.

Seattle has had at least one interception in every game this season. They’ve had multiple in half their games.

The availability of Emmanwori could give Macdonald the confidence to do some things he has not done as much his year, like blitz. Emmanwori showed promise as a pass rusher during training camp, and he made a great play on a blitz when he got injured. Macdonald almost certainly will show things that are not on film with the freaky athletic rookie back in tow.

The reduction in Woolen’s role could be good if it means solid coverage without the penalties and poor plays on the ball. It may be bad if Seattle sees coverage is less sticky without him.

The Seahawks should have a major advantage on the defensive line as the Bucs are dealing with so many injuries.

Special Teams

Punting has been a nightmare for the Bucs. Their punter has had two punts blocked in four games, and the active leader in blocked punts (7) in the NFL. They brought in a tryout punter to evaluate whether to make a switch, but decided to stick with their guy for now. Seattle already has one blocked punt. They also have a blocked field goal, and the Bucs have had a field goal blocked as well.

On the plus side for Tampa, their kicker made a 65 and 58 yard field goal last week. Their punt returner is also excellent.

Seattle has been good at just about everything on special teams. Although, Michael Dickson has had a few too many touchbacks, which is hurting his net yards.

Key to a Bucs win

Tampa Bay almost certainly needs a turnover to win this game, and to hold Seattle under 20 points. It would also benefit them to have a fast start, as they have been the worst first quarter team in the league.

Key to a Seahawks win

Closing. Seattle has struggled to get off the field when the game is on the line against San Francisco and Arizona. Mayfield provides an even bigger test. This game very well could come down to a defensive stand.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!