Setting the stage

Rivalries usually involve teams that know each other so well, each game is hotly contested. That has not been the case for one of the best rivalries in the NFL. The 49ers and Seahawks only became divisional siblings since realignment in 2002. The series has been more a swinging pendulum than a tug-of-war during that time. Seattle’s rise to their first Super Bowl appearance came in the middle of a six game winning streak against the 49ers between 2003 and 2005. San Francisco returned the favor as they became a Super Bowl loser in 2012 in the midst of a four game winning streak over the Seahawks. That same year, the Seahawks emphatically broke the streak with a 42-13 pounding that began a dominating stretch of 11 wins in 12 games from 2012 to 2018, including a 9-game winning streak and a Super Bowl ring. It was the 49ers turn again to take control with a 5-game win streak from 2022-2024 when they lost another Super Bowl.

Seattle finally broke that losing streak last season in Levi Stadium. The question hovering over the week one contest between these two team is whether that was another passing of the baton between these two proud franchises. There is reason to believe the Seahawks are a team on the rise and the 49ers are a team in decay. There is also reason to believe the 49ers still have the most dominant talent in the division. The outcome of this first game will reverberate not only through this season, but likely for the next few years.

49ers, a team in transition

There has been little question which team in the NFL has the most talented roster over the past few years. San Francisco has led the league in All-Pro players since 2019, with blue chip stars on both sides of the ball. They made it to the conference championship four times in five years and to two Super Bowls. Seattle has only won one playoff game in that time. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll found ways to beat the 49ers anyway. The 49ers dominated the Seahawks after Wilson was traded away, winning five straight games, with four of those victories being double digit margins.

But now it is San Francisco facing the loss of key talent. The 49ers were built on overwhelming defensive talent, especially on the defensive line. The 2019 NFC Championship roster had Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, D.J. Jones, and Dee Ford. Their linebacker room featured Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Azeez Al-Shaair. The secondary had Richard Sherman, DJ Reed, Emmanuel Moseley, and K’Waun Williams. Their 2023 NFC Championship team had Javon Hargrave, Javon Kinlaw, Chase Young, Talanoa Hufanga, and Charvarius Ward. Of all those names, only two remain on the 2025 roster. Bosa and Warner.

A team that has been among the top eight defenses in points allowed four times in five seasons (2019-2023), plummeted to 29th last year.

Both times the 49ers defense ranked outside of the Top 10 in scoring defense since 2019, they have won only six games (2020, 2024).

San Francisco has attempted to turn the tide on defense by bringing in an old friend and a bunch of fresh faces. Robert Saleh, who was the defensive coordinator from 2017-2020, came back after being fired as the head coach of the New York Jets. The team then spent their first five draft picks, and six overall, on the defensive side of the ball. All of those rookies should see the field against the Seahawks.

Saleh has a reputation as a good defensive coach, but it’s worth noting that the 49ers only finished among the Top 10 in scoring defense once in his four years with the team. They finished 25th, 28th, and 17th the other three seasons despite having a ton of talent.

The 49ers first tried to fix their defense with veterans like Hargrave, Maliek Collins, and Leonard Floyd. The problem was that all of those players struggled in run defense. Each of their three picks on the defensive line, edge Mykel Williams, DT Alfred Collins, and DT CJ West, all specialize in run defense.

The problem there is that it usually takes time for players to hold up in run defense in the NFL. There are not many young men in their early 20s who can hold up against veteran NFL offenses. In fact, most do not even play many snaps as rookies in that role.

Since 2020, only 15 rookies defensive tackles have played at least 500 snaps. Of those, just five have had PFF run defense grades over 60.0 (league average). Most either did not play much or did not play well.

San Fransisco needs at least one of Collins or West to be a player the caliber of Kobie Turner, Jalen Carter, or T’Vondre Sweat. Those are three players who were above average run defenders as rookies. Truthfully, they may need both Collins and West to be that level in order to avoid leaning on mediocre alternatives.

What may be missed in all this focus on improving the run defense is the loss of pass rush. Their 2023 defense got 183 pressures from Hargrave, Armstead, Kinlaw, Clelin Ferrell, and Young. Their 2024 defense lost 89 pressures from Collins and Floyd. The addition of Bryce Huff should help, as he excelled under Saleh in New York, but there may be more needed to help a pass rush that ranked 19th in pressure rate last season.

As good as Bosa and Warner are, and they are excellent, this defense is just not the powerhouse it once was. Meanwhile, the offense is undergoing a change that should sound familiar to Seahawks fans. What had been a run-heavy team, has started walking a path toward leaning more on their young franchise quarterback.

Take a look at where the 49ers ranked in early down pass frequency from 2019-2021, and then see where they were last season.

Kyle Shanahan went from 31st in the NFL in early down passing to 13th. This was not just a one season aberration during a down season when the team was trailing more often. The data pictured above (from rbsdm.com) removes situations where teams would be more inclined to pass due to game script (e.g., losing by a lot, last two mins of a half, etc.). And the picture below shows the trend did not start last season.

Shanahan trusts Brock Purdy in a way he never trusted his predecessors. Almost 54% of the 49ers offensive plays in 2024 were passes. Over 57% of the plays in the first half of games were passes. This is a drastic departure from the team between 2019-2021 lived by the run game.

They were without 2023 Offensive Player of the Year, Christian McCaffrey last season, but they were not passing because the run game was broken. They were 12th in rushing yards and 7th in yards per attempt. Jordan Mason was among the league leaders in rushing yards to start the year. This was a more tectonic change in philosophy for a team that knew a larger chunk of their cap space would be taken up by their quarterback.

The problem there is there is turbulence in the receiver room. Brandon Aiyuk was a game-changer for this offense, but things soured when he held in during the 2024 preseason, before signing a huge contract, failing to be effective once he was back on the field, and then suffering a serious knee injury that will cause him to miss an unspecified amount of games this season. Deebo Samuel, who provided a ton of yards after catch and unique running skills, started to slow down and left in the off-season. Ricky Pearsall, their first round pick a year ago, was shot, and had an uneven rookie campaign. And now, Jauan Jennings, has held in for this whole preseason while having a calf injury.

They still boast the best tight end in the game with George Kittle, but he is on the wrong side of 30, and has missed time over the years.

Meanwhile, the biggest pillar to either the run or pass game working, future Hall of Fame left tackle, Trent Williams, 37, played his fewest snaps last season as a 49er.

What you are left with is a team sprinkled with a number of elite talents on both sides of the ball, some aging, while trying to lean more on a quarterback who just got a big contract, and a boat load of rookies on defense. It is a challenging mix for a coach entering his ninth season. Are they more defined by the top-shelf talent they have or the question marks that abound on the roster? Analysts seem to think it is the former as the 49ers are the favorite to win the division. That may only make Shanahan’s job harder as the reality may be they are only as strong as their weakest link.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

NOTE: All data is from the 2024 season

It is worth noting that despite winning only six games, the 49ers were 14th in the NFL in DVOA, not far off the Seahawks at 10, despite a four win difference. Even without McCaffrey and Aiyuk for much of the season, San Francisco still had a Top 10 offense by DVOA, and the run offense was 7th overall. Seattle, even with some abhorrent run defense in the first half of the season, still finished 12th in run defense by DVOA.

One aspect that might surprise Seahawks fans is their special teams ranked 10th by this measure, while the 49ers were 31st. More on that in a bit.

The last five rows are all receiving related. The 49ers had big problems defending running backs as pass catchers, ranking 28th in the NFL in that category. Seattle’s success against #1 receivers could prove problematic for a 49er team with limited weapons at receiver.

Seahawks Offense vs Seahawks Defense

49ers key advantages on defense

Bosa and Warner can wreck a game on their own. Warner was playing at a defensive player of the year level the first four games of last season before suffering a foot injury that lingered throughout the year. He will be the key barrier to the Seahawks outside zone run offense and also the most dangerous robber on passes over the middle. His instincts and athleticism are unmatched at the position.

Bosa will be a handful for anyone asked to block him. Expect help to given most of the time, and even then, he might ruin the Seahawks plans.

Deommodore Lenoir is a quality cover corner who will likely match up with Jaxon Smith-Njigba much of the game. Huff is a very effective pass rusher. Rookie CJ West had a strong training camp and could provide some disruption on the interior.

It was surprising to see the 49ers were among the best defenses in football last season at limiting explosive plays. We will see if Saleh can build on that.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The Seahawks have the 3rd-youngest offensive line in the NFL, but it’s not without experience. Charles Cross and Abe Lucas are entering their fourth seasons. Anthony Bradford is in his third. Former North Dakota State roomies, Grey Zabel and Jalen Sundell occupy the other two spots. For the first time in recent memory, the Seahawks enter a game against the 49ers with reason to believe they will have an advantage in the trenches.

Ironically, it was Shanahan’s first offensive line coach, John Benton, and a former assistant, Klint Kubiak, who are bringing that group together and seemingly creating a strength that could last for years. None of that has been proven. Seattle’s ability to run the ball in this game is going to be the single most important factor in determining whether they win.

Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet figure to be featured prominently, as do tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo. Smith-Njigba enters the season looking to prove he can be a primary wide receiver on a team, and should be able to win his matchups in this game.

Tory Horton Jr. is an unknown for the 49ers, and could be an unwelcome surprise. Robbie Ouzts will be a key figure in the run game and potentially as a receiver out of the backfield as well.

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

49ers key advantages on offense

Purdy is an excellent quarterback. He processes the game well, makes good decisions, and avoids turnovers for the most part. He has never lost in Lumen Field and has always played with poise, even as a rookie. He can burn you with his legs when plays break down.

McCaffrey is a unique weapon who can succeed as a slot receiver or a running back. The combination of McCaffrey and Kittle give the 49ers plenty for Purdy to work with even without Aiyuk available.

Jennings is a 3rd down machine, who single-handedly willed the 49ers to first downs and points in the last matchup between these teams. He’s also a vicious blocker.

Pearsall had a terrific training camp that has some wondering if he is set to become the next great weapon for this offense.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Leonard Williams is one of the few defenders to have a history of giving Trent Williams problems. Look for Seattle to move Williams onto that side to occupy the 49ers best linemen, and create room for other players to eat.

Byron Murphy II and Jarran Reed give the Seahawks a ton of juice in the interior to challenge this 49ers line, while DeMarcus Lawrence is one of the best run-defending edge players in football.

Throw in Ernest Jones IV, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall and Devon Witherspoon, and you have a group that should be able to challenge the 49ers run game.

Nick Emmanwori is an interesting figure in this matchup. He had some issues during the preseason, but has unique length and speed. He could show up as a blitzer or possibly be exposed by a player like Kittle or McCaffrey. San Francisco will test him.

Mike Macdonald has had a fair amount of success designing game plans against Shanahan. He’s now had a full off-season to scout and adjust. That may be the Seahawks biggest advantage considering he already schemed a 13.9% unblocked pressure rate against the 49ers last season.

Special Teams

Jake Moody is arguably the most hated player on the 49ers roster by 49er fans. He was one of the least accurate kickers in the NFL last season and barely won a competition to keep his job. No San Francisco fan would feel good about him kicking in a moment that matters.

Key to a 49ers win

Score early. The 49ers have scored on their first drive against the Seahawks in four of the past six matchups. The only two times they didn’t resulted in a loss and the only other close game (21-13). This is a team built to front run. They were 1-6 last season when trailing at halftime.

Key to a Seahawks win

Run the football. The Seahawks have a chance to win this game convincingly and set a new course for this team if they can push the 49ers around. That means rookies Ouzts and Zabel have to be good in their first NFL games, and Sundell must play well in his first start. The good news for them is they will be going against players making playing their first NFL snaps and starts or league average defensive tackles. Anthony Bradford must avoid penalties and combine with Abe Lucas to create push.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!