The storybook 2024 season for Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders has come crashing down this year. A team that made the NFC Championship game during the rookie season of their do-everything quarterback, is having trouble putting together a complete roster or a complete game. Washington has lost three in a row, including the last two by a combined 43 points. Their three wins are against the Russell Wilson-led Giants in Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Chargers team that was playing without Joe Alt at left tackle.

They are backed into a corner with a 3-5 record, needing to win at home on a Sunday Night Football game against an NFC opponent. That is arguably their biggest advantage.

It is unclear who will play at quarterback for them this week as Daniels missed the Monday Night Football game against the Chiefs with a hamstring injury and there is some question about whether the team will put him out there on a short week, especially with leg injury for a running quarterback.

Seahawks fans might be surprised to learn that backup QB Marcus Mariota has actually outperformed Daniels in some ways this season, but Daniels is a unique and dynamic player.

Seattle should be rested and ready after their bye week, with the likely return of some key players on defense, and the possible return of their fullback, Robbie Ouzts. The Seahawks have advantages on both sides of the ball. They are rightfully road favorites (-3.5). They will win this game if they play to their level.

Players and coaches, however, have made too frequent a habit of unforced errors that narrow their margin of victory. That is not a recipe for continued success, especially against a highly motivated team trying to save their season in front of their home crowd.

This is the first of 10 straight games to close the season. What looked like possibly the toughest game on their schedule before the season began is now one Seattle should win.

Lineup notes

The Seahawks are getting some important players back. Derick Hall, Julian Love, and Robbie Ouzts were all on the practice field on Monday. The expectation is that Devon Witherspoon will be on the field as well. The combination of Love and Witherspoon being added means the starting secondary with Nick Emmanwori can play their first snaps together since Week 1.

That could lead to more use of dime defense where only one linebacker is on the field (Ernest Jones), and both Witherspoon and Emmanwori can play inside with Josh Jobe and Tariq Woolen outside. That personnel package may wind up being the Seahawks secret weapon if they are able to defend the run, disguise blitzes, and cover. The potential is intriguing.

Hall is a valuable player to return as well. Uchenna Nwosu was not back in reasonable game shape until Week 4. That was the game when DeMarcus Lawrence was injured. Hall got injured the following week. Seattle really has not had a chance to have all four of their edge players healthy and ready in the same game this year. This will mean fewer snaps for Mike Morris and a lighter load on the three other edge players, who all played 63%+ of the snaps against Houston.

That could be a big deal against a Commanders offensive line that may be missing their best player in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil left the game against the Chiefs with a hamstring injury and did not return. It seems unlikely he would be ready to play on a short week. Even if he does, he would probably not be fully healthy. Brandon Coleman stepped in for Tunsil and played a decent game. He was their starter at left tackle last season, but there was a reason the team jumped at the chance to upgrade there.

The Commanders also welcomed back wide receiver Terry McLaurin, and were thrilled to see his touchdown catch before having to leave with a quad injury. His availability is uncertain. Washington also got Deebo Samuel back after missing a game.

Daniels remains the biggest question. Early indications are that he will likely play in this one. That would mean more scrambles and more designed runs if he’s good-to-go. He is also a better deep ball thrower than Mariota.

Other notable connections for Seattle include Bobby Wagner, Nick Bellore, Jacob Martin, and head coach Dan Quinn.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

Believe it or not, the Commanders were a Top 10 team in DVOA (#7) before getting smacked by the Chiefs. That felt a bit high given their performances but indicates this team is no pushover. Quinn has an ability to get the most out of his players and will always put together a physical team that plays tough defense. That said, the Seahawks outclass them in almost every measure, and it’s not particularly close in most cases.

The Commanders deserve some leeway given Daniels has missed three games, but it is also worth noting that the Commanders two highest point totals came when Mariota was at the helm.

There’s some weird numerology going on with the Commanders offense ranking 15th in both run and pass and their defense ranking 19th in both run and pass. Overall, this is a mediocre team with some flaws, but they have not played many games with McLaurin, Samuel, and Daniels all available.

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense

Commanders key advantages on defense

Wagner is still an elite run defender and defensive tackle Daron Payne can be a handful inside. There are not a lot of other standouts on that side of the ball. Frankie Luvu is having a down year, but can be an excellent blitzer. Mike Sainristil is a playmaker at corner, but has struggled most of the season. Javon Kinlaw can be a run stuffer in the middle. Edge Dorance Armstrong was their leading pass rusher, but he was lost for the season against the Cowboys.

Martin had a nice game with two sacks against the Chiefs. He is a solid pass rusher.

Wagner’s overall football IQ is their biggest advantage, combined with Quinn’s defensive mind.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The Commanders can be a decent run defense, but their weakness is outside zone. They rank 27th in the NFL in defending outside zone (5.5 YPC) and 26th in all runs outside the tackles (5.7 YPC). Their linebackers are older and slower. Stretching them horizontally puts them in an especially tough spot because they need to race to make up for declining speed, which also sets them up for bootlegs and play action off those looks. Theoretically, this should be a very tough matchup for the Commanders defense.

Not only do they struggle in defending the outside zone, but they are one of the worst coverage teams in football. Washington ranks 30th in coverage grade from PFF, is yielding the most yards per attempt in the NFL, is 26th in pass yards allowed and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed.

There is a rare 1 vs 32 in this game where the Seahawks have the top YPA in football and the Commanders have the worst on defense.

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore was once among the better corners in football and was expected to be a big addition to the secondary when Washington traded for him last year. Instead, he’s been victimized repeatedly in almost every game. He did have a great interception and his best game as a Commander against the Chiefs, but Klint Kubiak can safely put Smith-Njigba against any of the Commanders corners and feel confident in that matchup.

The Commanders need sacks and turnovers to stay in this one defensively. They are not equipped to matchup in a fair fight.

Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Commanders key advantages on offense

Daniels and McLaurin are an elite tandem. They can be incredibly tough to hold down when they get going. Daniels is also a threat scrambling and on designed runs.

Mariota has actually averaged more yards per rush than Daniels this season (6.8 vs 4.8), but Daniels is far more likely to scramble (25 scrambles vs 5 for Mariota). From a passing perspective, Mariota has completed passes at a higher rate (66.7% vs 59.6%), but Daniels pushes the ball further downfield. Daniels takes longer to throw, which has also resulted in a lot more sacks (15 vs 5).

Daniels struggles mightily under pass pressure. Mariota grades out much better when pressured (64.0, 9th overall vs 46.0, 24th for Daniels). He is also much better than Daniels against the blitz where Daniels has a 55.9 passing grade when being blitzed (31s in the NFL) versus 83.3 when no blitz comes (6th).

It is not completely clear which quarterback matches up best with the Seahawks, especially without knowing how much Daniels will be able to use his legs. Seattle has had some problems containing quarterbacks who break the pocket.

Luke McCaffrey has had a strong second season as a receiver, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt is a physical runner. Zach Ertz remains a central figure, even at age 35, and leads the team with 4 touchdown receptions.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle should be able to dominate the Commanders offensive line if Tunsil is absent. They have mismatches across the board. Rookie right tackle Josh Conerly Jr. has struggled mightily giving up an eye-popping 28 pressures and being flagged 8 times. Only two linemen in the NFL have surrendered more pressures than Conerly. Only one linemen has been penalized more often.

Center Tyler Biadasz has given up 10 pressures himself. Coleman subbing for Tunsil would make it impossible for the Commanders to slide protection any direction. The Seahawks could attack from all angles, and will, regardless of who plays. The introduction of this dime package that features two players in Witherspoon and Emmanwori, who are both excellent blitzers could give Washington nightmares.

Daniels ability to evade the rush and scramble feels like the Commanders best chance to put up points. Washington has been a run-heavy team. They have only two games all season where they have rushed for fewer than 100 yards, and they lost both. In fact, they have lost every game when they rush for fewer than 163 yards. Seattle has not allowed more than 89 yards rushing since Week 1.

If Seattle stops the run again, the Commanders should have a very hard time scoring.

Special Teams

Matt Gay has been the kicker for the Commanders, but missed this last game with a back injury. There is no word on his availability for this game, but he has not been great even when on the field. Washington does have an excellent return and cover team. This is one of the few special teams units that can go toe-to-toe with Seattle.

Key to a Commanders win

Washington needs an All-Pro game from Daniels and a healthy McLaurin. They also need 1-2 turnovers from Seattle’s offense.

Key to a Seahawks win

This is a good game to get the rushing attack off the deck. Seattle has the scheme and the outside speed to threaten with Ken Walker III and the tight ends to cause problems on bootlegs. As long as Sam Darnold can avoid crippling mistakes, Seattle has a good shot to win this one.

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