Seattle was undefeated when they rolled into Detroit last season with the top-ranked defense in football. They were going to be missing a bunch of starters on that side of the ball, but the hope was that Mike Macdonald would be able to create some sort of game plan to compensate. Instead, the Lions scored 21 points in the first half, 42 for the game, and Jared Goff didn’t throw an incompletion on the night. The Seahawks were 3-1 headed into a Sunday showdown with the Tampa Bay Bucs. They were again the top-ranked defense in the NFL, and were without some key members of their defense. The result was achingly familiar. The Bucs scored 38 points and Baker Mayfield set a record by throwing for 379 yards with only four incompletions. Seattle had similar games last year against the Bills and Packers. A team that prides itself on defense has had a disturbing trend of not only playing poorly against top competition, but putting up almost no resistance. The result was failing another chance to prove they are worthy of higher aspirations than simply making the playoffs.
Injuries are a big part of any NFL season. Seahawks fans have seen two Super Bowl teams, 2005 and 2014, experience the impact of losing key defensive players and having no way to compensate. Even great teams have limits on what they can overcome. The rough part for the Seahawks in this game was you could point the finger at the players or the coaches and both would be valid.
Seattle entered the game without starters Julian Love, Devon Witherspoon, and DeMarcus Lawrence. The coaches chose to keep cornerback Shaquill Griffin on the practice squad and have Nehemiah Pritchett active. They also chose to have edge Connor O’Toole active and Jared Ivey inactive. Pritchett was called into action when Tariq Woolen left with a concussion in the 3rd quarter. He surrendered more touchdowns (2) in two quarters than Woolen has allowed all season (1). Ty Okada, who was subbing for Love, struggled mightily himself. Derion Kendrick, who had been excellent in two games a a nickel corner, also had a rough afternoon.
Macdonald had been able to hide the absence of Witherspoon against the Steelers and Saints because the front four was able to create pressure and he could deploy extra men in zone coverage behind it. The plan was to bring more pressure from different players in this game, while still playing zone coverage. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs hardly noticed there was a defense on the field.
Receivers were wide open. There was only one sack and two QB hits. Running the ball was ineffective, but it hardly mattered when you could average a first down (11.5 yards) on every pass attempt.
To be clear, Mayfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the league. He is having an NFL caliber season. This is a good offense, and may wind up being the league’s best when they get back to full weaponry. It is not shocking that they were able to score some points. It is meaningful, however, that the Seahawks were unable to provide any resistance.
Macdonald took responsibility after the game. He undoubtedly was disappointed in how some of his players performed, but chose not to point any fingers in public. It was hard, though, to watch the amount of players who were open, the degree to which they were open, and the total lack of pressure on the quarterback, and not feel like the game plan and adjustments were a big part of the problem.
Macdonald, for all his impressive moments against great signal callers in Baltimore, still did have some games where he was dominated thoroughly. Mike McDaniel, Sean McVay, and Ben Johnson have all out-coached him at times. His inability to find some adjustment to at least provide resistance in those games is something to monitor. He is still young and does not have the deepest well of experience to draw from. McVay was humbled earlier in his career by Vic Fangio and Bill Belichick. He nearly retired, but has come out stronger on the other side.
Macdonald is building a team built around strong defense. He needs that to show up in these big moments against top competition, or this is all just meaningless mediocrity.
Losing Derick Hall was big. It was bizarre that he went down, and the edge player they had active, O’Toole, did not play a snap. Why was he active? Mike Morris took a lot of edge snaps and was not particularly effective. Jared Ivey is a player who seems to bring a better combination of pass rush and run defense on the edge. We will see if the team makes a change there as Lawrence is probably unlikely to play against this week.
Woolen going down exposed just how much worse things can be at corner, and may have forced the team to hold onto him the rest of this season. Trading him and relying on Josh Jobe, Kendrick, Griffin, and Pritchett feels untenable. Jobe was not great in this game, either.
A sneaky way to improve coverage and overall defensive stability would be to upgrade the inside linebacker role opposite Ernest Jones. Plug in a Demario Davis or Jordyn Brooks there and the middle of the field would be harder to access for opponents. Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas are not cutting it yet.
There are some overreactions out there about Macdonald and the defense being exposed and the team being doomed. That is either emotional or uninformed. Mayfield is playing at a level most are incapable of reaching. The defense will get guys back and be a Top 10 unit. The question is whether they can be a true foundational defense that can slow down even the best offenses when it matters most. That question is valid and will remain so until they show up differently in these games.
Sam Darnold and Klint Kubiak almost overcame the bad defensive showing with a sparkling performance against a quality Bucs defense. Kubiak deviated from his early down tendencies. He utilized shotgun the most he has since Week 1, and had an early down pass rate of over 50%. That was middle of the pack in the NFL this week, but is notable given the Seahawks have had the 2nd-lowest early down pass rate in the NFL before this week.
The Bucs were the best run defense in football coming into this game. Kubiak decided he could lean on his quarterback and the passing game to soften things up for the running attack. It worked.
Darnold looked every bit Mayfield’s equal. He threw for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns, while only having six incompletions on the day. The running game was highly effective as well. Seattle put up 122 yards rushing and averaged over 6 yards per tote, against a team who had not allowed 100 yards rushing all season, even though they faced the Eagles.
They were explosive and efficient and varied. It was beautiful game on that side of the ball.
This was the second straight week of featuring heavy use of two tight ends with FB Robbie Ouzts on injured reserve. Seattle has been the best two tight end offense in the NFL this year, and that continued in this game.
A.J. Barner came into the NFL with a reputation as a blocking tight end with limited value as a receiver. He caught two touchdowns in this game, and has team-leading four on the season. He has 8 touchdowns since entering the league last year, which is more than the far more heralded Brock Bowers (5). His hands have been terrific, 14 catches in 16 targets, and his ability to impact the game as a blocker and receiver makes him one of the more valuable young players on this roster.
Seattle ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per rush and 2nd in EPA per pass when playing with two tight ends. They run the ball 50.5% of the time, and pass the ball 49.5% of the time. This is their bread-and-butter.
The fact that the offense could perform that well against a defense that had limited their last three opponents to fewer than 270 yards, including the Eagles (200 yards), is reason for optimism.
Being able to win a football game with different aspects of your team makes winning more consistent. Seattle has won games with special teams. They have won games with defense. They nearly won this game with offense.
It was fair to wonder if this offense had been propped up by playing some inferior defenses. The Bucs were the start of a stretch against tough defenses. Playing their best game against that group bodes well.
As great as Darnold and Ken Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were, the offensive line deserves some recognition. The right side, in particular, seemed to open up some holes in the run game. Darnold was not sacked on the day and only was hit twice.
Unfortunately, one of those hits came on his last pass that bounced off a defender’s helmet and hung in the air for a game-deciding interception. If you had asked every Bucs and Seahawks fan watching that game what they expected on that final drive, they would have told you Seattle was going to move into scoring position and take the lead. Seattle had scored touchdowns on five straight drives, including a 99-yard beauty that gave them a late 35-28 lead.
Dareke Young had a terrific game, contributing on kick coverage, kick returns, and as a receiver. He is earning a larger role. Jake Bobo had a couple damaging holding penalties he would like back.
The officials played their normal role with some questionable calls. Jason Myers missed another field goal. The crux of this game, though, came down to a defense that couldn’t get off the field and an offense that has failed twice at home to complete the game-winning drive. As bad as the defense was, Seattle still wins this game if the offense finishes the job.
The Seahawks have now lost two important home games against NFC opponents. Those will definitely come back to haunt them should they earn a spot in the postseason. Nothing gets easier next week in a trip to Jacksonville, where the Jaguars feature one of the best defenses in football and Seattle may not get significantly healthier. The next test awaits this coaching staff and this locker room. We will find out if the connection they have worked so hard to develop can handle the adversity.