Kyler Murray has been a polarizing figure in the NFL. The former #1 overall pick for the Arizona Cardinals has garnered MVP talk at times, and has been a favorite of many analysts who have predicted a sustained breakout is just around the corner. Others have seen the holes in his game, his poor leadership skills, and have predicted his downfall. The skeptics appear to have won the debate as Arizona announced Jacoby Brissett will remain as the starter even if Murray was fully healthy. Even with the limited success Murray had as the franchise quarterback for the Cardinals, this represents a tectonic shift in the division.
The immediate impact has been better quarterback play, and a more reliable offense. Where Murray had been one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league this season, Brissett has been close to the top ten.
He has averaged almost two yards more per attempt (7.7 vs 6.0), and has been generating 66% more expected points (+3.26 EPA/game vs +1.96 EPA/game) than Murray. He has been especially good on 3rd downs, completing over 70% of this throws and posting a 129.4 rating.
There are plenty of other differences between the two teams from the first matchup to this one, which will get covered in more detail below. Perhaps the biggest difference is the perception of these two teams.
Seattle was still recovering from their disappointing home loss to the 49ers and had not yet played in prime time. The Cardinals were still in the thick of the division race and had a winning record. Three dominant national television performances, along with a big trade for speedy receiver Rashid Shaheed, has thrust the Seahawks into the spotlight as a Super Bowl contender. Arizona lost a series of close games and benched their starting quarterback.
While the difference between these two teams may not be as great as the perception, there is little doubt which team is superior. Division games are always hard fought. Look no further than the first contest between these two where the Seahawks were in control for three quarters before allowing the Cardinals to tie it late. The Arizona defense is good, and has reinforcements. They are not the pushovers Seattle just faced in Washington.
Even if the Cardinals are a better team than they were the first game, so are the Seahawks.
Lineup notes
Both of these teams have changed substantially since the last matchup. It is probably easier to show the changes than describe them all.
Many of these changes are steps forward for the Cardinals. Two injuries worth monitoring are for starting corner Max Melton (concussion) and starting linebacker, Mack Wilson Sr. (ribs) Neither participated in practice Wednesday. Rookie Cody Simon would step in for Wilson. Rookie Denzel Burke would take over for Melton.
The big additions are Walter Nolen and Will Johnson. The first two players picked by the Cardinals this year are impact defenders in key spots. Neither played the first game.
Having Rashid Shaheed available to step into the lineup is big as Cooper Kupp is still recovering from a hamstring injury and did not practice on Wednesday. DeMarcus Lawrence was injured in the first game between these two teams and only played 10 snaps. Ernest Jones did practice Wednesday, but it would not be a surprise if Tyrice Knight steps in, especially with the Rams game looming next week. The presence of Nick Emmanwori could be big in this one to matchup with Trey McBride.
Recent Trends
Given how different the Cardinals have been the last three games with Brissett at quarterback, it seemed useful to split up the pre-Brissett and post-Brissett performances. It is worth noting for the Seahawks portion that the game versus the Bucs happened in Week 5, so the offense was boosted by that game and the defense was sunk by it.
You can see the improvement in the offense for Arizona across the board, but they are not exactly dominant with Brissett. The have gone from a below average offense to an above average offense. Their defense has taken a step back, especially the rush defense.
They have faced some stiff competition against the Colts on the road, the Packers at home, and the Cowboys on the road.
Keep these numbers in mind as the rest of the rankings shown below are full season numbers that blend both Murray and Brissett games.
DVOA
Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
The Arizona offense versus the Seahawks defense looks like a big mismatch. The Seahawks offense versus the Cardinals defense looks like a more fair fight.
Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cardinals key advantages on defense
Johnson and Williams dramatically upgrade the coverage players Arizona has available to deploy in this game. Keep in mind that this is the only team to slow Jaxon Smith-Njigba for even a portion of a game. He had zero yards receiving in the first half last time, and their corners are better this time.
Nolen is a new face to deal with in the middle of their line next to Calais Campbell. Nolen had a sack in his first game and made other plays behind the line of scrimmage. He and Campbell could cause problems for Jalen Sundell and Anthony Bradford.
Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson are high end safeties who have helped Arizona limit explosive plays. Seattle still managed to notch their second-highest number of explosive passes (6) in the first game, which also tied the most allowed by the Cardinals all season.
This game represents the first time Klint Kubiak will face a team for the second time. Like a pitcher facing a lineup the second and third time, we will find out if Kubiak uses the information he has gained to his advantage or vice versa.
Arizona has become a top team against play action passing, ranking 9th in the NFL in EPA/play in those situations. The only two defenses Seattle faced ranked higher were the 49ers (5th) and the Texans (1st).
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Arizona has had trouble generating a pass rush despite their offseason additions of players like Josh Sweat, who leads them in pressures with 33 this year. As quickly as Sam Darnold has been getting rid of the football, it is going to be hard for the Cardinals to get home. They rank 21st in quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds). That said, they did have the most sacks against Darnold this season (3) in the first game.
The run defense struggling against the Colts and Cowboys may offer a chance for Seattle to get their run game going. Ken Walker III did rush for 81 yards in the first matchup and Zach Charbonnet played a nice game as well, including a touchdown that was called back on a bad holding penalty against Smith-Njigba.
Nobody has truly been able to stop JSN. Shaheed making his debut creates a new problem for the Cardinals to deal with, while also knowing Tory Horton Jr. and the Seattle tight ends have been productive as well.
They did hold Dak Prescott relatively in check, and neither CeeDee Lamb nor George Pickens took over.
The linebacker situation could allow Seattle to get their backs and tight ends in advantageous matchups.
Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals key advantages on offense
McBride has been productive against Seattle in every game. He had only 1 touchdown in 5 games with Murray. He has 4 touchdowns in 3 games with Brissett. Marvin Harrison Jr. also set a career high for receptions in his last game and has been more productive since the QB change.
There are not a lot of clear advantages for this offense against the Seattle defense. One area could be 3rd downs. Arizona has done well in those situations and Seattle has been merely above average. Brissett has been excellent on that down, and the Cardinals rank as one of the best in the NFL in 3rd and long (7+ yards). Whereas the Seahawks rank in the middle of the pack in defending 3rd and long.
Emari Demarcado can be a shifty back, who can be tough to tackle if Seattle does not swarm him.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
The offense line has struggled. Right tackle Jonah Williams has been especially bad. Will Hernandez has played right guard of late, and has been even worse. It has not really mattered who has been across from Seattle this season. The defensive front has wreaked havoc.
Murray was sacked six times in the first game, and Brissett has been pressured at roughly double the rate of Murray. As well as Brissett has done in creating a more professional passing offense, he is a statue in the pocket.
Brissett ranks dead last in the NFL in pressure rate allowed (48.1%), which was far worse than Murray. Part of the difference is that Murray got rid of the ball much faster (2.6s vs 3.1s).
A quarterback with a slow time to throw and a lack of mobility seems like a bad recipe against this Seahawks pass rush. Brissett has been a bad quarterback when pressured, with numbers that roughly mirror Murray in those situations. Arizona also does not have a great run game, so if things break down in the passing game, it could get ugly.
Emmanwori playing in this game is going to be a fascinating watch. He has not really gone up against an elite tight end yet, and McBride has not faced a defender with Emmanwori’s skillset.
Scoring 17 points would be a good performance for Arizona given the defense they will face.
Special Teams
The two special teams are relatively even except that Arizona has not been great in kick coverage and Seattle has been dangerous all year. Shaheed now joins the arsenal.
Key to a Cardinals win
The Cardinals defense needs to win this game. They have to create energy for the whole team through pass rush, coverage, and turnovers. Holding Seattle under 20 points feels critical to their hopes. That’s only happened to Seattle once this season, and that was Week 1.
Key to a Seahawks win
The Seahawks defensive line can win this game themselves. They should be able to crush the pocket and get Brissett on the ground. Seattle getting the run game going would make this a very tough game for Arizona.
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