Sam Darnold has faced one of his former teams this season. He has three more games this season against teams that once had him on their rosters. He lost the first one against the San Francisco 49ers. Next up is his most recent employer: the Minnesota Vikings. Kevin O’Connell was given the bulk of credit for Darnold’s sterling 2024 season. Vikings fans did not lose much sleep over Darnold’s exit after a disappointing two-game stretch to end the year. Belief in O’Connell and the supporting cast led many to have high hopes for what the team could accomplish with J.J. McCarthy as the signal caller. The season has been a crushing collage of poor quarterback play, injury, and a less dominant defense.

McCarthy may not even play in this game as he is in the concussion protocol. Darnold will. His play for the Seahawks has led to an offense that ranks 3rd in the league in scoring and already has surpassed the win total predicted by Vegas in the spring. The FOMO among Vikings fans subsided a little when Darnold had a terrible game against the Rams, but McCarthy insisted on reminding them just how bad he is by throwing for 87 yards and 2 interceptions versus the Packers.

Undrafted rookie Max Brosmer is in line to get his first start. He may have a malformed offensive line. Starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw and left guard Donovan Jackson left the Packers game with injuries and did not return. A rookie making his first start in Seattle is a tough task. McCarthy has been so awful Vikings fans may feel more hopeful about their chances with Brosmer.

Darnold will get plenty of chances to either reinforce critiques about how he handles pass pressure or combat them. Brian Flores blitzes like crazy. He knows Darnold well. A big factor in this game will be whether Darnold can make good decisions and whether Klint Kubiak gives Ken Walker III enough chances to control the game on the ground.

Just how much have these team’s fortunes changed since last season? The Vikings were 3 point favorites when they came to Seattle last year. They are 10.5 point underdogs as of now. Seattle should win this game. The bigger question is whether Darnold can build some confidence handling the pass rush.

Lineup Notes

Another week, another slew of injuries for the Seahawks. Seattle has put at least one player on the injured reserve for four straight weeks, and it’s looking like they will make it five. Ty Okada, George Holani, and Chazz Surratt all might be IR candidates. Okada is the biggest name there as he has settled in as the capable starter for Julian Love. Love is eligible to come off IR this week, but there is some question about whether he is ready to do that. Seattle is reported to be signing former Seahawk safety Quandre Diggs to the practice squad, but it is hard to imagine he would be ready to play in Macdonald’s sophisticated defense right away. Although, he did play in a similar scheme in Tennessee.

That could leave the safety position to Coby Bryant, D’Anthony Bell and possibly Nick Emmanwori. That would fine if nobody gets hurt. On a more positive note, Tyrice Knight should be back on the active roster and Ernest Jones IV could be as well. The play of Patrick O’Connell likely reduced the urgency to get Jones back. They may choose to take the long view and give him another week of recovery.

Minnesota has the QB and offensive line issues mentioned earlier. They also have been missing edge rusher Jonathan Greenard for a couple weeks. There was some hope he would return for the Packers game but that did not happen. Dallas Turner has seen his reps increase in Greenard’s absence, and has played well.

DVOA

Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.

DVOA is not a fan of this Vikings team. They rank 25th overall, and 29th on offense. Seattle has advantages just about everywhere. Even the rushing offense that has been the outlier for this team has climbed out of the mid-20s and into the teens at 18th. That implies they have been even better than that in recent games. The Vikings pass rush is no joke, but their coverage is at least a little funny. There are no great corners and the safety play is questionable.

Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense

Vikings key advantages on defense

The Vikings have the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL at 40.6%. Seattle has played only one other defense that ranks among the top ten (Tampa Bay, 4th). Flores stands alone in his defensive philosophy. He brings blitzes from everywhere and at any time. Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate (45.6%), and they have been blitzing even more since their bye in Week 6.

Flores sent blitzes a whopping 57% of the time since Week 6, over 10% higher than the next-closest team. When they get into split-safety looks, they have blitzed on 53.8% of snaps, more than double the closest team (Arizona, 24.7%).

Getting Greenard back would be a boost for this defense. Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel are dangerous edge rushers as well. Van Ginkel has a special ability to read screen passes and pick them off.

Linebacker Eric Wilson leads the NFL in tackles for loss. Blake Cashman is excellent, especially in coverage, next to Wilson.

Jalen Redmond is one of the more talented young interior pass rushers in the league. Javon Hargrave has been much better in this defense than in San Francisco, and both Jonathan Allen and Levi Drake Rodriguez are good players inside as well. This is one of the best fronts Seattle will face this year.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Believe it or not, Darnold ranks second in the NFL among QBs when facing the blitz from a PFF grading perspective. He has thrown five interceptions when blitzed, although only three of those were deemed turnover-worthy plays. He tends to go for the big play, averaging a league-best 10.3 yards per attempt when blitzed. The next-highest is Josh Allen at 8.4 yards per attempt.

A blitz does not equal pressure. Darnold’s numbers when under pressure have plummeted in recent weeks. He now ranks 15th among qualifying QBs in PFF grade when pressured. A big difference between his pressure numbers and his blitz numbers is his time to throw. He averages 2.63 seconds to get rid of the ball when blitzed, but that balloons to 3.32 seconds when under pressure. Every QB is over 3 seconds when pressured, as they tend to scramble or move to avoid the pressure. Allen, for example, is over 4 seconds per throw when pressured, as is Lamar Jackson.

As well stocked as the Vikings are at defensive line, they are challenged in the secondary. Flores sends all those blitzes to help cover up subpar coverage. Isaiah Rodgers might be their best corner this year, and he’s not that good. Byron Murphy Jr. has struggled this season, giving up 3 touchdowns and drawing 6 penalties.

Minnesota is an outlier in a variety of ways, including personnel usage. They do not play much nickel (24th), and play mostly base (51%). Their most common alignment is 4-3-4, often dropping a safety down to the second level. Darnold has practiced against this defense quite a bit, which should help reduce the amount of prep work required to play this unique scheme.

An oddity with Minnesota is they are top ten in limiting explosive pass plays, but rank 24th in yards per attempt. There have been relatively few deep pass attempts against them, but teams that do test them deep are completing 50% of those throws, well above the NFL average of 36%. They also tend to allow more yards after the catch than most teams.

Despite facing the fewest rush attempts in the NFL, the Vikings rank 24th in rushing yards allowed. They have given up 130+ rushing yards in 7 of their 11 games, and over 110 in eight. They have given up at least 140 in their last three games and 4 of their last 5 games. On the flip side, two of their three wins have come when they held teams under 100 yards on the ground.

Believe it or not, Seattle has rushed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL over the past three weeks, trailing only the Lions. They have topped 110 rushing yards in each game. Minnesota will have a tough time winning if the Seahawks run the football and reduce dropbacks and turnover potential.

Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Vikings key advantages on offense

Brosmer is a bit of an unknown. The passing game has been so dysfunctional with McCarthy that Brosmer is likely an upgrade. He does not have a strong arm, so he will live more underneath and intermediate. The Vikings have a stellar receiving corps with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. A quarterback who just makes on time and accurate throws could give this offense a big lift. Seattle could have challenges at the safety spot that might create some opportunities for Minnesota.

The running game has some upside with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason both providing production. T.J. Hockenson is a dangerous tight end, and the Seahawks struggle to slow down tight ends this season.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Vikings have surrendered a 36.7% pressure rate, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Their offensive line has had injury issues, and may have more this week. Big free agent signing Will Fries has surrendered the 8th-most pressures at the guard spot in the NFL. Justin Skule has had to fill in at left and right tackle, and it has not gone well. He has allowed 21 pressures in just 191 pass block snaps, ranking 106th out of 113 tackles in terms of pass blocking efficiency.

Asking a rookie quarterback to navigate a road game in Seattle against this Seahawks defense with a faulty offensive line is bordering on unfair. The Seahawks just registered 42 pressures against a Titans line that ranked 30th in the NFL with a 81.0 pass blocking efficiency. Minnesota ranks 28th, with a barely better 81.7 efficiency rate.

Seattle has been very tough to run against. Minnesota is 1-5 when rushing for less than 100 yards. They will try their best to run the ball and take pressure off their rookie quarterback. That could backfire.

Special Teams

Will Reichard has made 8 of 10 kicks beyond 50 yards this season, and has the most such made field goals in the NFL. Ryan Wright has been excellent at pinning teams deep, with a great 37.8% rate of kicks being downed inside the 20, with just a 2.2% touchback rate.

Key to a Vikings win

Minnesota has to run the football effectively and take advantage of what they hope will be some coverage mistakes in the secondary. Forcing Darnold into some bad decisions would go a long way.

Key to a Seahawks win

This is a game the Seahawks could win if they chose to play super conservative on offense, almost like their Week 1 game plan against the 49ers. Do not expect them to do that. Darnold will need to make the Vikings pay on blitzes and the Klint Kubiak will have to lean into the run game. Seattle has not forced a ton of turnovers on defense. This would be a good game to change that.