Eight weeks ago, the Atlanta Falcons were flying high. They had just raised their record to 3-2 with a surprisingly comfortable win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The offense had put up their second straight game of over 400 yards, and the young defense was harassing quarterbacks to power what was the top-ranked DVOA defense in the NFL. If only the season was six weeks long.
The Falcons have known only misery since that game. Losers of six of their last seven games, with the only win coming against the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta finds itself out of the playoff picture, without a first round pick, and without their young quarterback. Even star wide receiver, Drake London, has missed the last two games with a PCL sprain. They were not done in by injury, though. The problems appear more insidious and systemic. An offense that features some of the most exciting young talent in football has failed to score points consistently. Their improved pass rush has been paired with a porous run defense.
The product on the field has not been terrible. It has been just bad enough to lose close games against the Patriots (by 1), the Colts (by 6 in OT), the Panthers (by 3 in OT), and the Jets last week (by 3). Kirk Cousins has taken over at quarterback with Michael Penix Jr. out for the year. That has caused a dramatic shift in offensive style, with more under center snaps instead of pistol, and more play-action. It has not really helped.
Cousins is averaging nearly a yard less per pass attempt, has a lower QBR, and a higher sack rate. Being without London for two of his three starts explains part of the issue. More, this feels like an offense that does not quite have the horses or the play caller to beat good teams.
The best defense they have played this season is the 8th-ranked Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 1 or the 11th-ranked Vikings in Week 2. They scored 20 and 22 points in those games a long time ago. Their offense has gotten worse since then, and the Seahawks defense is a whole other animal.
It is possible Seattle will be at full health on defense for the first time since the season opener. They have excelled at stopping the run. Very few teams have slowed down Bijan Robinson and this Falcons rushing attack. Atlanta was able to put up 155 yards on the ground last year when Seattle came to town, with Robinson going for 103 yards and a touchdown.
That was a different Seattle defense that still featured Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker at linebacker. Tariq Woolen also missed that game, leading to Nehemiah Pritchett starting. There was no DeMarcus Lawrence or Uchenna Nwosu or Ernest Jones IV or Drake Thomas or Nick Emmanwori.
The Falcons are not a bad team. They just have a tough task matching up with the best defense in the league and a Seahawks run game that is starting to find its footing.
Lineup Notes
Seattle may finally break the streak. They have put at least one player on IR for five straight weeks. Knock on wood, but it appears they will not add to that list this week. In fact, they could be getting back Julian Love, Jarran Reed, Eric Saubert, and Dareke Young. It’s probably unlikely all will rejoin this roster this week, but they are getting closer.
Of those players, Saubert might be the one who could make the biggest difference this week as he was the best pass blocking tight end on the roster before he went down and the Falcons edge rush is excellent. Reed would be a boost against the Falcons run game as well.
It is possible we will see some change at right guard, but the best guess is that if the Seahawks do make a change, it would happen after getting Jalen Sundell back the following week.
The Falcons have listed London as day-to-day, leaving some skepticism that they will play him this week in a lost season. They lost third safety Billy Bowman Jr. a couple weeks ago. Interior pass rusher Zach Harrison was put on IR last week after notching 4.5 sacks in the first 7 games.
DVOA
Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
Atlanta is an underdog for a reason. Seattle has advantages everywhere, outside of how both defense fare against the TE position. Special teams has been a killer for Atlanta all year, including last week against the Jets.
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Falcons key advantages on defense
Atlanta made waves for the second straight draft by trading away their 2026 first round pick to the Rams for a chance to select Edge James Pearce. This, after already selecting Edge Jalon Walker earlier in the first round. The two young pass rushers have had promising rookie years with 5 sacks apiece. Brandon Dorlus has blossomed in his second season with 6.0 sacks. Leonard Floyd recently returned from injury and can still generate some pass rush of his own. DT Ruke Orhorhoro can be a disruptor inside, and has 2.5 sacks as well.
The Vikings lead the league in blitz rate at 47%. The Falcons are second at 39.5%. Sam Darnold and his offensive line will be tasked with identifying and handling the blitz for the second straight week.
Xavier Watts is a promising rookie safety and Jessie Bates III is a savvy veteran who can still make plays.
Even with the similarity of both Minnesota and Atlanta blitzing, the way they do it is very different and the coverage behind it is as well. Atlanta is a heavy Cover 1 team where the Vikings live in Cover 2. Darnold has the highest EPA/dropback in the NFL against Cover 1. Still, this is a defense that has put pressure on the passer and taken the ball away. They have to like their odds of doing that again this weekend.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Atlanta has given up over 100 yards rushing in nine of their twelve games, including 323 yards to the Colts four weeks ago. They did much better against the Panthers a week later, holding a good running team to 67 yards on the ground, but it is a vulnerable part of their defense.
Seattle has become a Top 10 rushing team over the last four weeks, with more usage of Ken Walker III, better play from Zach Charbonnet, and some better blocking upfront. They are getting stuffed far less often, and popping more explosive rushes.
Success there would go a long way toward helping Darnold avoid long yards-to-gain situations where the blitzes and pressure could be more problematic.
Seattle was not able to create opportunities for Jaxon Smith-Njigba last week due to the breakdowns in pass protection. Klint Kubiak and the offense will have to find other ways to create those opportunities in this game. Screen passes could be a logical mechanism to leverage, but the Falcons have been one of the best defenses in the league in defending screen plays.
This is a lighter defensive interior. They are built for speed. Seattle has a chance to lean on them in the inside run game. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA/rush on runs inside the tackles.
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Falcons key advantages on offense
Cousins is smart and experienced. He will not panic the way Max Brosmer did a week ago. Atlanta will feature Robinson as a runner and receiver. He is a threat to make a big play every time the ball is in his hands. Should London play, he is great at using his body and height to wall off defenders and make contested catches. Kyle Pitts is a talented tight end, and the Seahawks have had trouble defending tight ends at times.
This is a good run blocking offensive line that will test the Seahawks run defense.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Elijah Wilkinson has struggled at right tackle in place of injured Kaleb McGary. Wilkinson has given up 34 pressures on the year, the 5th-most among all tackles. Chris Lindstrom is the right guard, and has given up 29 pressures, 3rd-most in the NFL for guards.
Any weakness on the offensive line can be exploited by this complete and relentless Seahawks defense. It doesn’t help that Robinson is one of the worst pass protecting running backs in the league (28.6 pass block grade).
Seattle has been excellent in coverage outside and inside, and Mike Macdonald has started to exploit teams with the presence of Emmanwori and Devon Witherspoon for pass rush when he sees an opportunity.
Cousins is a stationary pocket passer. Those types of players have a lot of trouble against this defense.
Special Teams
The Falcons almost impossibly rank dead last on covering opponent kickoffs and dead last in returning kickoffs. This is a bad special teams unit, one of the worst in the NFL. Seattle could break the game open with a special teams play.
Key to a Falcons win
They absolutely have to get some turnovers from an effective pass rush and run the football on offense. If they do both of those things, they can win at home.
Key to a Seahawks win
Seattle needs to punish the blitz, either with a strong run game or an explosive passing game, or both. Defensively, it would be very hard for the Falcons to win if Seattle stops the run game.