Football analysts are constantly looking for a unique perspective that gives them a clearer view of how a player, a play, a game with turn out. I have been writing some form of this column for 18 years. There have been lessons learned from being right, and many more from being wrong. This game between the Rams and the Seahawks is one of the most challenging to forecast.
By some measures, this is one of the greatest matchups in history. That is not hyperbole.
It is natural for both fanbases to be looking for reasons to believe their side will win. The reality is that these teams are so well-matched that any outcome is possible. Three of the four times Sean McVay has faced a Mike Macdonald defense, the game went to overtime. The two teams are separated by one yard and one point in their matchups so far this season. Seattle’s defense has held the Rams to their worst offense performance of the season, and lost. The Rams offense has put up the most yards ever against a Seahawks defense, and lost.
There are usually individual players, position groups, or aspects of a team that are weak spots to exploit. These teams have very few of those, and the ones they do have are hard to attack. In those situations, the winner is often decided where strength meets strength. The trench battle in this one will almost certainly decide who goes to the Super Bowl.
Seattle has one of the best defensive lines in the game. Los Angeles has one of the most stout offensive lines in the game. If the Seahawks are able to stop the run and rush the passer, they are going to win. If the Rams are able to run the ball and have clean pockets, they likely win. Similarly, if the Rams defensive line can stop the run and get after the quarterback, they are in great shape. If Seattle can put up yards on the ground, limit Rams possessions, and reduce the amount of pure dropbacks, they are in the driver’s seat.
We will not know who wins until the final whistle, but there will be a clear indicator on the first snap. Which team resets the line of scrimmage? It is remarkable how often those early skirmishes tell the tale of what’s to come. The Rams have won those battles early in both games, and got out to leads. The Seahawks won those battles late, and outscored the Rams in the second half each time.
Both of these teams deserve to be here. There is nothing flukey about their success. Two teams enter. One team leaves.
Lineup Notes
Most of the changes from the last game come from the Rams side. Davante Adams was a big absence, as was Quentin Lake and Tyler Higbee. Kevin Dotson also exited after 22 snaps due to an ankle injury. These are critical players for the Rams on both sides of the ball.
Xavier Smith is still available, but Jordan Whittington is getting more receiver snaps now than he was then.
Charles Cross did not play in the last game. He is nursing a foot injury that led to missing both practices this week. If he cannot play or he cannot complete the game, Seattle has some challenges behind him as both Josh Jones and Amari Kight are nursing knee injuries. Undrafted rookie Logan Brown might be gameday call-up from the practice squad.
Recent Trends
The best way to read this table is looking at each row from left-to-right. That gives you a sense of how the teams were performing heading into each of their three games. For example, the Seahawks defense when from 5th in EPA/play when they played the first game, to first in both of the next matchups.
One of the things that becomes clear when doing that is the Rams offense and defense enters this game playing its worst football, relative to the first two. Their offense went from 3rd->1st->11th. Their defense went from 2nd->13th->18th.
Keep in mind, these are not cumulative numbers. They simply capture the games leading up to the next matchup between these teams. That last timeframe includes the final two weeks of the regular season and both the playoff weeks.
If how teams are playing recently has any bearing on the result of a game, Seattle has the largest edge either team has enjoyed heading into this one. The Rams had four of six measures in their favor before the Week 11 game, three of six heading into the Week 16 game, and zero of six heading into this one.
DVOA
Tale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
NOTE: The Total DVOA, Off vs Def, and Special Teams DVOA rows are using the weighted DVOA metric that includes playoff games. The Pass Off vs Run Def and Run Off vs Run Def rows are regular season only.
Not only are the Seahawks the best defense in the NFL and the Rams the best offense, but they are the best in pass defense and pass offense, run defense and run offense. These are two celestial beings colliding.
The Rams defense has advantages, but the recent surge of the Seahawks run game is not as evident in these season-long rankings. Ken Walker III has had productive days as a runner and receiver against the Rams both times they played. Los Angeles has had some challenges with defending RBs as a receivers.
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Note: All of these rankings include playoff games except for passer rating
Rams key advantages on defense
Kobie Turner was a game-wrecker the last time these two played. He abused Grey Zabel and Jalen Sundell. He also picked off a pass. The Rams defensive line is stacked with difference makers. Jared Verse and Byron Young on the edge, Turner, Braden Fiske, Poona Ford, and Tyler Davis in the middle. That group allows the Rams secondary to play ultra-aggressively in coverage. They jump routes because they know the opposing quarterback is going to be under pressure and will not have time for double moves and deep passes.
That has bit the Seahawks in a big way, as Darnold has 6 interceptions in two games. Safeties Kam Kinchens and Kam Curl watch Darnold’s eyes and hammer down on routes in front of them. Defensive Coordinator, Chris Shula, does an excellent job disguising coverages. He fooled Darnold in the last game with a zone defense that looked like man before the snap.
This group also excels at dislodging the football. Nate Landman forces a ton of fumbles. It is impossible to feel comfortable going against this defense. They are smart, aggressive, and dangerous. The most glaring advantage in the table above is turnovers.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
The Seahawks have become an excellent rushing team. Their ability to punish the Rams for playing extra defensive backs could decide the outcome of this one. Seattle put up over 170 yards on the ground in the Week 16 win, and Walker had over 160 scrimmage yards. Walker had a 55-yard touchdown run and a 46-yard screen pass.
The Rams defense is predicated on stopping the run game with their front. Their pass defense is reliant on a ferocious pass rush. Get by the first level as a runner, and there are big yards to be had. Protect your passer, and there are explosive passes out there.
A.J. Barner’s touchdown to help tie the last game was a good example of how the Rams aggression can be used against them. Barner executed a nice double move to sell a route going the expected direction, only to break the other way. The Rams safety bit hard, leaving Barner wide open for the score.
Rashid Shaheed nearly scored on a reverse in the play before Barner’s touchdown. Los Angeles is extremely aggressive. Klint Kubiak has the opportunity to use that aggression against them, but he needs his line to provide enough time for those plays to develop.
Darious Williams is one Rams cornerback who has shown some significant weakness. He was a healthy scratch for a few games before Ahkello Witherspoon was lost for the year to injury. Look for Seattle to attack him,
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams key advantages on offense
Sean McVay’s mind working in tandem with Matthew Stafford’s arm, and a dynamic corps of receivers and tight ends, is a handful for anyone. Their big and talented offensive line makes it all work. The most jarring aspect of the Week 16 game was watching that Rams line get push on a Seahawks defensive line that does not get pushed around. Seattle also has zero sacks on Stafford this season.
The Rams have size and strength at both guard positions and both tackles spots. Warren McLendon Jr. has been the rare upgrade over former starter Rob Havenstein at right tackle.
Their running backs are not dynamic, but are tough. They will grind for any extra yard they can find.
McVay came out last time with an aggressive mentality on fourth down from the start. He also had some confusing decisions to kick field goals instead of going for it near the goal line.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
The Seahawks biggest defensive advantage is they have demonstrated the ability to adjust and slow down the Rams offense in both games. That might sound odd given the Rams put up 580+ yards last time, but their run game took a big downward turn that ultimately opened up the door for the Seahawks comeback.
The foundational element of this defense is its ability to shut down the run with lighter personnel on the field. McVay has built his offense to be able to gain 3-4 yards against anyone so he can hunt explosives and still have advantageous distances to convert.
If Macdonald has had enough experience against McVay to know how he will try to run the ball, he should be better equipped to slow down the run earlier in the game.
Coleman Shelton is a guy Seattle has been able to exploit at times at center, as has Alaric Jackson at left tackle.
Ernest Jones IV and Julian Love need to play their best football to shut down the middle of the field that Stafford loves to attack.
Seattle has taken the ball away six times in the last three games, and 15 times in the last seven games. They have just one takeaway in two games against LA. They need to take advantage when Stafford gives them a chance. He leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays since Week 12, including the playoffs.
Special Teams
Special teams keyed the win over the Rams last time. LA has to be very nervous about how this area plays out in this one. That gives them even more reason to go for it on fourth down. Their kicker has been solid, but is inexperienced. He made a pressure kick last week. He will be tested again.
Key to a Rams win
Early success. A Rams team that withstands the initial emotional onslaught and maybe even scores early has the best chance to win. They have the weapons to come from behind, but they do not want this crowd and defense to smell blood in the water.
Key to a Seahawks win
If Seattle can get the Rams to bite on a double move early and beat them over the top, it could create some doubt about being so aggressive in breaking on the ball looking for interceptions. Seattle will need some explosive passes to win this game. There is not a point total or lead that will be safe against the Rams offense. Seattle needs to stay sharp through the final whistle to reach another Super Bowl.