No Seahawks rookie was more fun to watch blossom on the field last year than Tyler Lockett. He scored the team’s first touchdown of the year on a punt return, and eventually added a kickoff return touchdown to become one of the few who have done both in one season. He made the Pro Bowl as a returner, but it was his contributions at the receiver position that truly set him apart. A complete player, Lockett demonstrated the speed needed to beat defenses deep, the route running necessary to get open underneath, and the hands to catch whatever was thrown his way. An unexpected part of his makeup was his toughness. Smaller receivers like Lockett can have trouble dealing with the physical nature of the NFL. Not so here. He took on big hits, and delivered a few of his own.
Below is calculator I threw together that lets you mess with just how much you expect Lockett’s numbers to jump in the 2016 season. Production at the receiver position is limited by targets. A receiver can’t gain a yard if the ball is not thrown in their direction. That is why targets is the first number you need to mess with in the calculator. Catch rate determines receptions. It’s pretty simple; what percentage of passes thrown your way do you catch? Lockett caught a very solid 75% in 2015. Then, you need to figure out how many yards per catch he will have this year. Will he be more of a deep threat than last year, or be working more short patterns? Finally, decide what percentage of times that he catches the ball will it result in a touchdown. I have set the calculator to default at Lockett’s 2015 numbers.
After you’re done, leave a comment with your results so other folks can see.